00:00First of all, I'll begin by asking, of course, we just saw the post of President Trump, where he has
00:06announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian infrastructure.
00:10Do you see this as a genuine diplomatic opening and do you see this as a sign of de-escalation?
00:19It could be the latter in terms of de-escalation, but only perhaps for a brief window.
00:25The lull in question that has been proposed by Mr. Trump must be foregrounded against this fact, that Iranian Foreign
00:33Minister Araqchi only a week or so ago was bluntly declaring that we are incommunicado with Washington and clearly had
00:41nothing to do with them since the war started on 28th February.
00:45But that is not true. A tacit channel of communication between him and Steve Wichkoff did open last week for
00:53the first time.
00:54You could call it back-channel talks. So there was some communication going on between Tehran and D.C.
01:02And perhaps this would explain why President Trump has gone ahead and announced it, the lull in question, for five
01:10days.
01:11And it's not a full-fledged formal ceasefire. That needs to be stated too.
01:15So that's one thing. And also, it is good to pause even during a military campaign because it gives you
01:22time to take stock of the situation of a very fast evolving scenario playing out and, you know, to check
01:31your arsenal logistics and what your tactics can be.
01:35So a pause in itself is something which planners always do welcome.
01:43Burzim, just days ago, I mean, even it was in fact yesterday, only the U.S. issued a 48-hour
01:49ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz.
01:52How do you interpret this rapid shift from coercion to pause? Is this strategic signaling or policy inconsistency?
02:00I mean, how do you look at it?
02:02Well, the only thing consistent is that Mr. Trump can be unpredictable.
02:06That is something which all Middle Easterners know, not just the Iranians, but even his GCC allies.
02:13Perhaps something could have been factored in.
02:17You see, it's paradoxical, but how do I explain it?
02:20The Arab GCC partners are asking Mr. Trump to finish the job with Iran because they cannot afford to have
02:29him just hastily pull out, leaving things as they are because a wounded Iran is a greater risk to their
02:38medium and long term stability and threat.
02:40And they are already at the receiving end of Iran just now.
02:44So you can imagine what it would be subsequently if an exit strategy were hastily devised and Trump exited from
02:51the scene.
02:53So on one level, you have the GCC allies pressing him to continue despite domestic opposition and opposition from his
03:03European allies who are reticent to join the NATO allies in question.
03:07But at the same time, perhaps he may have factored this in as part of his strategy because Tehran threatened
03:16to obliterate desalinization plants across the Middle East, not just the oil installations, which already they have done, as you
03:25can tell.
03:25And for example, Qatar's Ras Lafanfield, at a conservative estimate, would take about a good three to five years to
03:32resume following repairs.
03:35So partly that has been factored in.
03:38But the question is, I think it was the water salinization plants that could have partly led him, I repeat,
03:44only partly to stay his hand for a moment.
03:46But it isn't over.
03:48So we have to see what happens after the five-day hiatus concludes.
03:54And do you also think that, you know, a back-channel diplomacy through actors like Oman or Qatar still play
04:01a decisive role because they were attacked as well?
04:04I mean, Qatar, just as you mentioned, they were attacked at two end.
04:07Do you see this five-day pause translating into a structured negotiation process or is it just a tactical breather?
04:16I think the tactical breather is a good way of putting it.
04:21Communications are going on between, on both sides of the Persian Gulf.
04:26The embassy, Tehran's missions are still open in all GCC capitals.
04:31Though certain personnel, intelligence and military personnel, have been declared persona non gratae and been asked to evict within 24
04:41to 48 hours.
04:42Doha has done that, for example.
04:44And so had Abu Dhabi a while ago.
04:48Talks between Musket and Tehran on a bilateral basis continue.
04:52And I'm sure Musket must be left wondering as to why it has incurred Tehran's wrath, given that it was
04:58the closest of all Arab allies, GCC allies, to Tehran over the years.
05:04At the same time, there are unconfirmed reports that have been circulating, and I repeat, unconfirmed, that Qatar offered Tehran
05:14$6 billion with immediate effect to stop firing at it.
05:20Not the other GCC, but just at the state of Qatar.
05:24But like I mentioned, it was unconfirmed.
05:26The funds in question go back to the prisoner stake funds that had been placed in effect for prisoner swaps
05:36with the U.S. for citizens.
05:38And with heavy U.S. oversight, of course, over the funds, which are based in Doha.
05:43But the corpus of funds has not been, you know, dispersed to Tehran so far.
05:51And Qatar tantalizingly, it is reported, put that out to Tehran.
05:55But obviously, that's all we can say at present.
06:00Yeah, Burzim's last question.
06:02What are the most plausible scenarios over the next few weeks?
06:06Negotiated pause, wider regional war or prolonged low-intensity conflict?
06:10And also, where do you, I mean, how do you look at the position of Israel?
06:14I mean, we have seen a statement from Trump, but we still await a statement from Netanyahu as well.
06:20So, where do you see Israel's position?
06:24Well, strangely enough, Israel's position concurs with that of the GCC allies in seeing the job done and finished.
06:32Israel makes no bones about the fact that it wants this regime to be completely obliterated.
06:37And I do believe the GCC allies are now increasingly realizing that too, that they simply cannot live in the
06:46shadow of a Tehran like this.
06:48The Third Republic has already started with Mojitabha Khamenei.
06:52But there are questions that need to be asked of what next.
06:57There might be some land warfare involved.
07:00How it would pan out depends on what support is afforded, say, to Kurdish dissidents in Western Iran, who have
07:07not necessarily been inspired by previous U.S. administrations.
07:13They would want copper-bottomed guarantees to see how they could pursue their next steps.
07:19So, that would be one option.
07:21And even Netanyahu himself conceded that despite decapacitating so many top-rass individuals, you can't bring regime change simply from
07:34the air.
07:35It has to be done on ground.
07:37And for that to happen, you need some kinetic action terrestrially, not just aerially.
07:43And also, Israel must realize that its stunning, brilliant campaign of taking out these hardliners and other elements of the
07:51state, symbolic as well as potent symbols, not just Khamenei symbolically, but even IRJC and intelligence commanders and the like,
08:01that is good as a strategy.
08:05But it doesn't necessarily translate into long-term policy.
08:11So, even Israel must privately concede that they need something beyond that for the morning after, so to speak.
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