- 3 minutes ago
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Did I catch wind of the fact that on Friday of last week while I was baking out in the
00:09Scottsdale Stadium, son, that my two guys here, Dan Dibley and Mark Randy, did you did you get into an
00:18argument about whether or not the Warriors should want to be in a playoff series or not?
00:23Yeah, we talked about it.
00:24OK, absolutely.
00:25Who said what?
00:25Well, I actually and I've gone back and forth so many times on this.
00:29Call me a yo-yo.
00:30But I actually said on Friday that I want them in a playoff series because I want them to have
00:35that experience for the younger people.
00:37And I want them to have that taste.
00:39But, you know, new information and you watch what's going on.
00:42And now Steph can't even scrimmage.
00:44And I don't know.
00:45What are we even doing?
00:46So now you're on the other side.
00:47I don't know where I am, Mark.
00:48I'm kind of normally I have a definitive belief in a take and I'm going to stick with it and
00:56I'm going to ride or die and all the rest of it.
00:57But maybe it's my last four days of March madnessing and seeing all of the Yaxo Lundenborgs and seeing all
01:06the other players that are going to be out there.
01:08And I'm starting to dream about, you know, what potentially might be for the Warriors if they're a lottery team,
01:14who they might be able to get and if they can move up in the lottery.
01:17So I don't know.
01:18I'm kind of going back and forth.
01:20I feel like I'm I'm like dangling by a wire right now.
01:23I don't know what to believe.
01:24OK, and Grandy, you've made it very clear you would like the Warriors to lose all of their games and
01:30get get a pick.
01:31They don't need to lose all of their games.
01:33They need to specifically lose the first play in game.
01:36OK, they need to be in the 910 game and they need to lose it.
01:39And they will be in the 910 game no matter what what happens.
01:42Why?
01:42Because they're not going to catch.
01:44They're not going to be the eight seed.
01:45That's pretty defeatist.
01:47They're not going to be the eight seed.
01:48They're only two back.
01:49Yeah, they're two back and they play a bunch of crap this week.
01:52And they play them, too.
01:53Yeah, I mean, they're crap, too.
01:55But crap can beat crap sometimes.
01:57Mathematically, yes, of course they can.
01:58They won't.
01:58They won't.
01:59OK, that's a prediction.
02:00Yes.
02:01Right.
02:01Yes.
02:02Like, I always love the definitive like, well, that wouldn't happen.
02:05Kind of like how there was no way they would lose below 48 games this year.
02:09Oh, that's normally my bit.
02:11Just saying.
02:13You've ripped me for like rubbing his face in that all year.
02:16And now you're going to go there?
02:17Well, because he threw out another definitive statement similar to what you did the last
02:24championship.
02:24What, Lucas?
02:25What are you yelling about?
02:28I don't know.
02:30And either say with your chest into a microphone or pipe down.
02:34He is nothing to do with the show.
02:36He's just, I don't know, being Lucas.
02:38I like off mic, Luke.
02:40Yeah.
02:40I do, too.
02:41Yeah, Granny.
02:42I like.
02:43Usually I know when his mic is on.
02:46Exactly.
02:48No, you did it.
02:49I've always poked at you because the year they won the championship in February, you're
02:56like, this seems not a contender.
02:57Right.
02:58That's stupid.
02:59Well, I mean, point out the other years where I said they're not a contender and I was
03:02right.
03:02Right.
03:02But no, we don't want to talk about that.
03:04No, but if you're going to be overly definitive like that, I just don't, like, I try, you
03:10can be definitive with your opinion, but you can't act like a fact is already a fact when
03:16it's not a fact yet.
03:17Well, you could say something's a stat if it's not a stat on this show.
03:22The Warriors are going to be in the 9-10 game.
03:25That's not a stat.
03:26Draymond Green is a top five defensive player.
03:28That's a stat.
03:30I've been working on my cart.
03:32That's a stat.
03:33But anyway, I think the larger point for me, at least, is I don't think tanking is
03:38the right way to describe what I want the Warriors to do because losing these regular
03:42season games doesn't accomplish anything for them because they can't fall any lower than
03:47the 10.
03:47We know that.
03:48That is not technically mathematically a fact either, but it essentially is.
03:53Yes.
03:53I just think what's best for them is losing that 9-10 play-in game, getting the best chance
03:59you can in the lottery as opposed to losing in five games potentially to OKC.
04:03Which is not a crazy take.
04:05May I attempt to provide a differing perspective?
04:10I would expect nothing less, Willard.
04:11Of course you wouldn't.
04:12But here's why I totally want the Warriors to be in the playoffs.
04:19Reason number one, it would be fun.
04:23Yay!
04:25Yeah.
04:25I would like two more weeks of basketball and I would like to see if Steph Curry happens
04:32to be playing and Kristaps is playing and Draymond and Al and Moses and Guy and Melt and all
04:42the actual NBA players that the Warriors have technically on their roster, I would love to
04:47see those games.
04:49Just here for the fun.
04:50Yep.
04:51I would love to see it.
04:52Sports.
04:53It's entertaining.
04:54I'm into it.
04:55Yeah.
04:55OK, so that's reason number one.
04:57Number two, I don't think you could provide any data that would suggest that if the Warriors
05:05get the 13th pick versus the 17th pick, that that is some massive difference in terms of
05:17their chances of getting somebody who matters going forward.
05:21But if you're in the lottery, you have a chance of being one, two, three, four, all.
05:27All the rest of it.
05:27You do, but I always laugh when we do that because when we do that, you're basically
05:32saying that we have a chance to do something that is largely in the percentage range of
05:36all the things that people tell me there's no chance.
05:39Well, there's a 10% chance that they go in the top four.
05:41Sure.
05:42From where they are right now.
05:43I would say there's about a 10% chance that they get the eight seed.
05:46Mark Grandy just told me there's no flipping way that's happening.
05:49Well, and there would be an even lesser chance that you would get to eight and then beat
05:53OKC, but you're here for the fun and I get that.
05:56Yeah, exactly.
05:57I'm not here for, I think they can beat them.
06:00But by the way, I'd love to see them try.
06:04I'd love to see.
06:05So what I'm basically saying is, I don't think if you make the playoffs, I really don't think
06:11you're losing that much.
06:12I don't think you're losing that much.
06:14You're very probably losing a few slots in the draft.
06:18You have five or six.
06:19Which I still think there will be very good players available, number one.
06:24Number two, who knows how things play out.
06:26The person you're supposed to take at number 12 might suck.
06:30And the person that you're supposed to take at 17 might be really good.
06:34How many times have we been like, well, the Warriors couldn't take Halliburton because
06:38nobody would do that at the number two pick.
06:40Well, then I wish we'd had the seventh pick because then we could have had Halliburton
06:45as opposed to James Wiseman.
06:47Plus, half of you think the Warriors can't pick their way out of a paper bag anyway.
06:51So why do we care what pick they get?
06:54Now, I'm being sarcastic there, but I hear that opinion all the time, too, even though
06:58Mike Dunleavy has never had a lottery pick in his life.
07:00Right.
07:01And even though this draft is supposed to be super deep, and I believe that it probably
07:04will be.
07:05And, you know, you watched almost every game, I'm sure, this weekend.
07:08And you see a lot of guys, it's like, man, a lot of good players who are freshmen and
07:12likely going to be coming out.
07:14So I'm kind of with you there as far as if you're picking 12 or 13 as opposed to 17
07:20or
07:2018, you should be able to still get a good quality player that you like.
07:23But being in the lottery at least gives you that chance of a miracle and moving up and
07:28getting somebody who you absolutely love.
07:30Yeah.
07:31So like, again, when you or Grandy or any of our callers say that, I can't really argue
07:37with it.
07:38I completely see where you're coming from.
07:40I really do.
07:41I just don't kind of share that vibe right now.
07:44I would like the Warriors to keep competing.
07:48I would like to see what Stefan Kristaps look like together.
07:56And then here's my reason number three, reason number three.
08:00And this is where I'm going to, I'm going to try to pin you, not you, but whoever's, whoever's
08:06disagreeing with me right now.
08:07And I've said this before, I'm going to, I'm going to tug at you emotionally a little bit
08:12here.
08:13I thought that we all wanted to savor every single meaningful moment that we have left
08:24with Steph Curry.
08:26I thought that's what we were supposed to do.
08:28I thought that the, I think that that's what I'm doing.
08:32So if he doesn't play, he doesn't play right now.
08:35Right.
08:36But he absolutely could play in a few days.
08:40He absolutely could play in a play in scenario.
08:43He absolutely could play in the playoffs.
08:45So if you're telling me that Stefan Kristaps, even if it's just four games, five games, if
08:53you're telling me that I get to see that in a playoff setting against Oklahoma city or
09:00San Antonio, I want to see that.
09:02I don't know how it would go, but I'd like to see it.
09:05And that is worth potentially falling four slots in the draft to me.
09:10It could be more than four.
09:11It could be.
09:11It could be less.
09:12You could win the lottery.
09:13I mean, you could be number one.
09:15Yes, you could.
09:15If luck goes your way, you have a 10% chance right now I'll be in top four.
09:19Everything we're talking about is all could.
09:21All of it.
09:22Every single thing we're saying.
09:23Exactly.
09:24I mean, Steph could come back and have a rerunner's knee.
09:28It could happen again.
09:29And he could be, oh boy, you know, this hurts again.
09:31And so they could also go to the playoffs and win game one.
09:34They could, you know, and then you're like, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait a minute.
09:38We stole one from OKC.
09:40It could happen.
09:41Yeah.
09:41Go ahead and throw the records out when these two teams get together.
09:44So, I mean, there's a lot of could.
09:46I'm into the one thing you said about like just watching it.
09:50I like to watch it because I'm a fan and I'm lucky that I get to do this for
09:53my job, but I watch every game, every warrior game.
09:57And I watch it because I like it and I like this team and I always have.
10:01And so I want them to win.
10:02And if they're a playoff team, I don't know why that's a drip.
10:05Because you have a TV, you're rich.
10:07Sure.
10:08I mean, there you have it.
10:09So if they get into it and they get into the playoffs, of course, I'd be excited.
10:13I'd be hopeful that they could possibly win.
10:15And if they don't make the playoffs and they're in the lottery, then I'm going to watch the
10:19lottery, which I haven't really watched in a number of years.
10:22Right.
10:22Right.
10:23So whatever happens, I'm going to be into it.
10:25I would love for them to play meaningful games.
10:28And that's why right now is a little bit of a tough spot because you have 11 games left
10:32to go.
10:32None of these games don't matter, but you can't really do much other than like maybe struggle
10:38up to the eight.
10:39You can't be the 11.
10:40So you're going to be a playing team.
10:42And Draymond had some great comments in his podcast here on the Odyssey family of networks.
10:48I thought he was spot on.
10:50So real quick before we go to the phone.
10:52So, Randy, let's let's again, all of this is mythical at the moment.
10:57They're in Portland for the 9-10 game.
11:00Okay.
11:01Yeah.
11:01You're rooting against them.
11:03I think it's hard for me to separate my fandom in an individual game and also what I think
11:09is longer term best for the organization.
11:11So I would go into the game being like, all right, Steph, like put on a show.
11:15Yeah.
11:15But I would in the back of my head be like, it might be best if they lose this game.
11:19And you'll sit in this chair as soon as that game ends and the Warriors lose it and you
11:23will click this mic on.
11:24And I will tell you why it's okay.
11:26That is a good thing that just happened.
11:28And I know that you're talking about you want to savor everything that Steph has left, which
11:32I absolutely get.
11:34Why I think being in the lottery is better is specifically with Steph in mind.
11:38Yeah.
11:39For help ASAP.
11:40And I understand that.
11:41However, I also I could like while we're doing the mythical and the maybe I could fire right
11:47back in you and be like, ain't no guarantee that Steph's ever going to play in another
11:50playoff game ever.
11:51Yeah, it's possible.
11:53Maybe we've already seen his last.
11:55He may not play another game, period.
11:58Well, yeah.
11:59I mean, sure.
12:00Now you're a kind of Kyle Shanahan land.
12:02A little bit.
12:03But at the same time, he's 38.
12:04We might all be dead tomorrow.
12:06I mean, he's 38 and I mean, he's out with runner's knee.
12:09And so you never know what anybody's going to be able to go through and come back from
12:13whatever.
12:13So, yeah, tomorrow's not promised.
12:16And so if you have today and we do have today and they've got a game coming up here and
12:20whatever,
12:21three or four hours, whenever they decide to play that game on the talk against Dallas.
12:25Yeah.
12:25Three hours.
12:26Go out there and win.
12:27Yeah.
12:27Go do it.
12:28Let's go.
12:29And by the way, the lottery conversation isn't necessarily like draft a rookie and have
12:34him on the team next year.
12:35If you get a top four pick, suddenly that asset becomes 10 times more valuable.
12:39Fair point.
12:40Fair point.
12:40I just, again, to poke at all of these theories a little bit, the idea of getting a top four
12:46pick in this moment is a highly, highly unlikely scenario.
12:52It is, as I've always put it, a Johnny Cueto hit.
12:56And a lot of these unlikely scenarios, when they're positive, we dismiss them.
13:02We dismiss them.
13:03In fact, like I, I don't, I don't even know what the numbers would be.
13:07I wonder if they played the Spurs in a series that started tomorrow, Vegas would give them
13:14a what percent chance of winning the series?
13:18Probably, I would say about seven, seven to 10.
13:21Pretty damn close to the idea of getting a top three pick.
13:25Well, right now, I think top four, we had it last week.
13:27They're at 10%.
13:28And what about top three?
13:30Top three is probably a little bit lower.
13:33Okay.
13:33About 7%.
13:34How about the top pick?
13:35Top pick, I think, was about 2%.
13:37Okay.
13:37So they are more likely to get to the second round than they are to get the first pick.
13:42Right.
13:42But the first pick is not.
13:43If they get in the playoffs.
13:44Sure.
13:44The first pick is just the first pick.
13:47Well, I mean, then all of these wonderful players that are out there, you get whichever one
13:51you want.
13:52They have 2% right now to get number one overall.
13:53They have 9.4 to be in the top four.
13:57Okay.
13:58Okay.
13:59So 9.4, probably higher than what the odds would be to beat San Antonio or like OKC,
14:05most likely.
14:06Those are usually the kind of percentages where we go, well, that's not happening.
14:11That's absurd.
14:12I'm on a tank-a-thon right now, and I just simmed the draft lottery six times, and I'm
14:17the sixth time, Warriors' third overall pick.
14:19All right.
14:20Thanks, Luke.
14:21Do it 87 more times over the next hour and report back, please.
14:26Number seven, they're down to 12.
14:28I do think that the, like, if you want to put the odds at, like, even levels, the odds
14:34of getting something done randomly at 7% or 9% is better than the actual human being able
14:42to go out there and get it done at a 9%.
14:44You might be right.
14:45You might be right.
14:46But there's no injury in a ping-pong ball.
14:49You also, well.
14:50There's no travel.
14:51If there was, the Warriors would be the team that would have it happen.
14:54And you also then remove the two weeks of getting to watch the playoffs and all of that.
15:00I'm not talking about the joy.
15:02Like, the enjoyment of watching them go up against, like, Chris Stapps against Wemby?
15:07Hell, yes.
15:08See?
15:087-3 on 7-3.
15:09I'm into it.
15:10Like, size on size, sure.
15:12And, you know, Steph against your boy, Stephon Castle.
15:1527th time, I simulated the lottery.
15:17The Warriors, number one overall pick.
15:20All right.
15:21Yeah.
15:21Who are you taking?
15:22So, it's the second time that it's happened in 27 tries?
15:25Top four.
15:26Yeah, 27 times.
15:27You're taking Depansa?
15:28Who are you taking?
15:30Yeah, it's tough.
15:31It's a tough one.
15:32You have a lot of options.
15:3310% chance is what I'm hearing.
15:35Yep.
15:37Top four.
15:38Two out of 27 is a little bit less than 10%.
15:41Yeah, man.
15:42Like 8%, maybe.
15:43Anyway.
15:44That's actually a close end.
15:46Whatever.
15:47Hey, let's go to Nathan.
15:48He's in Honolulu.
15:49Hey, Nathan, thank you for calling.
15:51Everything okay with floods and such where you are?
15:56Yeah, the rain is all done already, but I'm just so grateful.
15:59The sun is out shining, and I watch you guys on YouTube every day.
16:01I love you guys' show.
16:02Thank you, man.
16:02And just to let you know, Willard, I'm with you.
16:05I mean, with all the injury, and I'm a huge Warriors fan.
16:08I love the Warriors, and Steph is my guy, you know, like all of us.
16:11But I say playoffs because let's just throw the cards on the table with all the injuries
16:16that we have, and it's going to be a stretch to get to eight.
16:19But I just say let's put it all on the table, bring him back, and see if we can go
16:24and do
16:24a lot of forward watching and just hope for the best.
16:26But I'm with you, brother.
16:27Let's just throw everything on the, you know, try getting the playoffs, and let's see what
16:32we can do.
16:32I mean, I don't believe in tanking, you know, and that's not who we are, and that's not
16:37our organization.
16:38I just want to see where we can go.
16:41I mean, I understand we are not going to beat OKC, but just throw everything on the table,
16:45and we see where we land.
16:47Let the chips fall.
16:49Nathan, I'm with you.
16:51Thank you so much.
16:52Like, I wonder how often that's even a thing in all sports.
16:58And I understand where the Warriors as a franchise have been and where we've been as a fan base.
17:02But when any sport gets to its postseason, how many teams actually have a chance?
17:10Let's do March Madness.
17:11I was told last week that if you go by those Ken Palm metrics, we're talking about anywhere
17:17between five to eight teams that actually could win the whole thing.
17:21And those teams are still alive.
17:24Except for one.
17:25Except for Florida.
17:26Gone.
17:26Right.
17:27But what did we get for the second year in a row?
17:31Zero mid-majors in the Sweet 16.
17:33That's right.
17:33Second year in a row and only one in the last three years.
17:37And that mid-major was San Diego State, which is only sort of a, they're moonlighting as
17:41a mid-major.
17:43In fact, they will be in a major next year.
17:46Which one?
17:47They're going to be in this new Pac-12.
17:49The new Pac-12.
17:50That will not be a major.
17:51Well, it is what it is.
17:53It is what it is.
17:54It's considered a power conference.
17:55I mean, if you want to look at the power conferences now, you're kind of down to four.
17:59And apologies to the Big East.
18:01Like, the Big East is no longer a power conference.
18:03I looked at all the conferences that had one team only in, and I did this on Twitter.
18:09There were, I believe, 23 of them this year.
18:11And they accounted for two wins.
18:13It was Utah State and High Point.
18:15Yep.
18:15And then they both lost in the second round.
18:17So, that's just the way that goes now.
18:21So, VCU is not from a one-bid conference?
18:23VCU is a two-bid St. Louis.
18:25Okay.
18:26Which is also very good.
18:29VCU is, they had the A-10.
18:33They had a second team, I think, that made it.
18:35Yeah, St. Louis.
18:36The aforementioned St. Louis.
18:37Yep.
18:37With the big kid with the funny goggles.
18:40With the goggles.
18:41Yeah.
18:41Yeah, and they pulled off a win, and then they were close, but they lost.
18:44But, yeah, 23 conferences, one-bid only, and they went two and 23.
18:49No, that's like, this is the way it's going to be from now on.
18:52Exactly.
18:53With the NIL.
18:54Like, you're not going to penetrate.
18:56You might win a game.
18:58You might win two.
19:00But you're going to get the top teams into the Sweet 16 and beyond.
19:06And then they'll play it out.
19:08And some people like that.
19:09Some people don't.
19:10I mean, you are going to get big boy versus big boy more often, which is nice.
19:16I know it's fun when Cinderella goes on a little run.
19:19It usually leads to a complete blowout if they do get to, like, the final four.
19:23I remember being, I think it was Florida played George Mason in Indianapolis.
19:28Yep.
19:29It wasn't even a basketball game.
19:31Like, it was.
19:31But at the same time, Florida Atlantic played San Diego State.
19:34Yes.
19:35But Florida Atlantic was a ninth seed that year.
19:38Right.
19:38And I was looking, actually, at that earlier today.
19:41And that team, after they made that run, they either graduated or they all transferred.
19:46They all left, including the coach, Dusty May.
19:49Exactly.
19:50Who is now coaching elsewhere.
19:51And so, yeah.
19:52Your point, though, was about the NBA.
19:54And, like, right now, how many teams would you look at and say, yeah, you have a chance
19:58to win it this year?
19:59You can talk about maybe five or six teams.
20:01Yeah.
20:02Like, okay, when we started the NFL playoffs, how many teams would you have believed could
20:09win the whole thing?
20:11Maybe four?
20:12Four or five, maybe?
20:14So why do the other ones even play?
20:16I mean, you sound like Steve Kerr now.
20:18Why?
20:19No, I'm asking.
20:20Well, you play because you just never know.
20:24I'm trying.
20:24But so why doesn't that apply to the Warriors?
20:27It does.
20:28But they would need, like, a whole Casey Schmidt ton of you never knows to even have a chance
20:34to get through it, you know?
20:35So go back to my Sharks comp.
20:38I understand they're a bunch of pups and the Warriors are the opposite.
20:42I get that.
20:43But I also can still make my point.
20:46Why do you care if the Sharks make the playoffs?
20:49They're not winning the whole thing.
20:50So what is it that you're getting out of that one round or whatever?
20:54And I know, sure, they could win.
20:56They could.
20:57They could win a series.
20:58They can't win it if they don't make the playoffs.
21:00Same for the Warriors.
21:01Right.
21:02But they can't win it even if they do make the playoffs.
21:05That's an opinion.
21:06Correct.
21:07It's my opinion.
21:08And my opinion would be that about the Sharks, too.
21:10They're not ready.
21:13They're not.
21:13Well, they're not ready, but, you know, the puck is kind of a funny little rubber thing.
21:18It can bounce your way and whatnot.
21:20And basketball is a little bit more, I think, of a meritocracy.
21:24Predictable, sure.
21:25You've got to go out there and, like, you've got to earn it over the better team four times,
21:29and you have to do that four times.
21:30I thought you were going to say you've got to go out there and be tough.
21:34You've got to go out there and fight and be tough.
21:38Yeah.
21:38No, I get it.
21:40I get it.
21:41But I just, I don't, I don't think that's a great reason.
21:45Well.
21:46I don't think, hey, they're not going to do well is a great reason.
21:50Why do we want the Niners to make the playoffs?
21:52None of us thought that they were, they were not loaded enough to go do something.
21:57I mean, it's an all-blown ball and you get action.
21:59And they won a game.
22:01Okay.
22:02Did that float people's boat?
22:04It did for me.
22:05It floated my boat.
22:06We got another week out of it.
22:07It was fun.
Comments