00:00And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romain Bostic here with Katie
00:04Greifel taking you through to that closing bell. It's a global simulcast. Carol Masser, Tim Stenevich, they're joining us now.
00:10Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, television, radio, our partnership with YouTube. Another wild day, Carol
00:17Masser on Wall Street, but it actually started before the cash session back in the futures market in the wee
00:23hours of around 7 a.m. I know you're probably still asleep here. Markets were down.
00:28My second cup of coffee. Dogs were blocked. I was reading through the Bloomberg for rally messaging with my producers.
00:34No, you're right. It was very different overnight and certainly early on. And then, you know, president, obviously, maybe some
00:42would say watching perhaps the markets. But we did get some commentary from the president on truth social. So kind
00:49of holding off, backing off on his ultimatum, if you will, to Iran. And so we've got now five days.
00:54So the clock is ticking and we'll see whether or not there are talks going on.
00:57But risk on trade, guys, most names we are seeing in among the big caps, the S&P 500, they
01:03are higher today.
01:04Most equity names higher. But look at oil. We have Brent below $100, a barrel, Katie, $99.70 right now,
01:12WTI, $88.70. We had a great conversation with J.T. Bardwaj over at TD Securities a little earlier today.
01:21And she said, don't get excited so quickly here. She sees like a real floor at $80 a barrel. She
01:28doesn't see us going back to $60 a barrel anytime soon.
01:31We'll see. I do just want to point out gold down today, 2 percent. Once again, this is a ninth
01:36straight day of losses for gold. That is your longest streak since October of 2023.
01:42And just a reminder here, still no ceasefire. In fact, getting headlines right now out of Israel that the IDF
01:48is already detecting launches of missiles from Iran.
01:51So a situation that is still fluid. The Strait of Hormuz now closed for a 24th straight day. Meanwhile, investors
01:57are trying to hang their hats on optimism, optimism that, yes,
02:00maybe indeed there are talks and maybe we could see a ceasefire potentially sometime this week. The Dow Jones Industrial
02:06Average adding 600 points or 1.4 percent.
02:09The S&P up 75 points or 1.2. The Nasdaq Composite adding 300 points or 1.4 percent. And
02:15the Russell 2000, that's your outperformer, about 56 points higher or 2.3 percent.
02:20All right. We are definitely living from headline to headline on this U.S. war in Iran. Back to the
02:25S&P 500. Earlier today, we had more than 400 names to the upside.
02:29Katie, still about 382 gaining ground on this Monday. 120, excuse me, to the downside, one unchanged.
02:37Well, it was a perfect score when it comes to the sector picture. 11 out of 11 sectors in the
02:43green. Haven't seen that for quite a long time.
02:45Consumer discretionary leading the pack in terms of your percentage gain higher by about 2.5 percent.
02:51Materials also 1.5 percent higher. So, too, was tech. Healthcare almost spoiled the picture.
02:58Healthcare as a sector higher by 0.03 percent. But the color is green, Carol. So, it's going to count.
03:05Wow. Kind of love that. All green. I had a lot to choose from in terms of individual gainers. So,
03:10let's get to it, folks.
03:11Two names, DraftKings and Flutter. Certainly some outperformance there in the trade.
03:16That has to do with these two names gaining after the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. senators are
03:22set to introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports bets on prediction markets.
03:26So, this has certainly been giving the likes of DraftKings and Flutter kind of a run for their money.
03:33Now, the bill pertains to entities regulated by the CFTC, including prediction market exchanges, Cauchy and Polymarket, according to the
03:40newspaper.
03:41As I said, these two names, though, have been under some pressure as investors fret over the competitive threat posed
03:46by Cauchy and Polymarket,
03:48which have seen volumes tied to sporting events boom. So, we're going to keep a watch on that one.
03:52DraftKings up more than 1 percent and Flutter up about 4.4 percent.
03:56Flip it on over to the cruise lines also getting a kick to the upside.
04:01And they were among your top gainers in the S&P 500. Norwegian up more than 6 percent.
04:05And you're looking at more than 5.5 percent gains on both Carnival and Royal.
04:09And this basically has to do with what's going on.
04:12At least some of the headlines out of the president when it comes to the war in the Middle East
04:16and in Iran.
04:18President Trump backing off those threats. So, we did see the whole travel sector actually gaining in today's session.
04:24So, some optimism coming back.
04:26And then one more name I just want to throw into it is Palantir.
04:30That went up almost 6.8 percent in today's session.
04:33Top in the NASDAQ 100 as its MAVEN artificial intelligence system will reportedly become an official program of record for
04:41the Pentagon.
04:41You might remember on Friday, our own Katrina Manson, she's got a new book out that's all about Project MAVEN
04:46that's been developed over the last decade or so.
04:49She reported on Friday how the Pentagon intends to accelerate AI-enabled decision-making and put it at the heart
04:54of its ambition to link up sensors and shooters for combat operations.
04:58That was according to a policy memo seen by Bloomberg.
05:01So, she kind of front-run that.
05:04Front-run? Front-run?
05:06Very cool book, too.
05:07Something like that. It is an incredible book about what the government's been working on.
05:11Hey, how about some decliner? It's not easy to find today.
05:14It's called Project MAVEN.
05:14Project MAVEN.
05:15Katrina Manson, man.
05:16She's amazing.
05:17If you haven't talked to her, you should.
05:18I haven't, but thank you.
05:19Okay, you're welcome.
05:20Let's start with Micron.
05:22Shares down 4.4 percent today.
05:24Down for a third day in a row after the company last week reported CapEx for the year that was
05:28higher than analysts wanted to see.
05:30Down more than 13.5 percent since those highs just after reporting last week.
05:35I also want to talk about shares of Pfizer kind of hovering lower by about seven-tenths of 1 percent
05:40for much of the session.
05:41That's where it finished.
05:42This after the company said its experimental Lyme vaccine was only 73 percent effective against Lyme disease.
05:49It's a lackluster result as fewer than expected infections in the pivotal study made its potency hard to evaluate.
05:56There's currently no human vaccine for Lyme disease on the market.
06:00Also, late in trading, we saw FICO, Fair Isaac Corp shares take a hit today.
06:05This after Politico reported that the company is being queried by Senator Josh Hawley for its mortgage credit scoring.
06:12Look at this, down 5.7 percent.
06:14Politico reported on a letter that Senator Hawley sent to FICO that said, quote,
06:18these price increases are most damaging to the Americans who can least afford them.
06:23First-time homebuyers buried a disproportionate burden of the cost.
06:26Once again, FICO shares falling by 5.7 percent.
06:29And a late ad, big thank you to the control room for throwing this one up there, Estee Lauder Company's
06:35shares late in the session down 7.7 percent.
06:38This is amazing.
06:39This is wild.
06:40The FT reported the company is nearing a deal to combine with Puig Brands.
06:43It's a Spanish beauty firm.
06:45The transaction could be announced as soon as Monday, according to the newspaper who cited people familiar with the matter.
06:51Estee Lauder shares down 7.7 percent today.
06:53Yeah, I thought it was interesting, too.
06:55I was also curious as to why it dropped so much here.
06:57Obviously, we don't have all the details, but you also saw some of the other peers in that space get
07:01dragged down, like Cody.
07:03Meanwhile, we talk about the moves in the yield space here, and it was one of the most volatile days
07:07that we've seen in quite some time for treasuries, if you can believe that.
07:11On a points basis, when you look at the two-year yield, we actually had the biggest one-day swing
07:15from peak to trough in two-year yields going all the way back to August 1st of last year.
07:20Down 11 points at one point, up 11 points at one point, closing out the day, down by about five
07:27basis points here.
07:28Similar moves across the board here with your 10-year, down about three basis points, and your 30-year yield,
07:33down about two.
07:34All right, guys, it feels like in some ways, despite our focus on traditional markets, if you will, public markets,
07:40we are talking a lot about the prediction markets.
07:42And there was an interesting story that caught our attention.
07:44This has to do with Polymarket updating its rules to clarify that certain kinds of trades are prohibited, including acting
07:51on stolen confidential information or wagering using illegal tips.
07:55Do you feel like, yeah, of course it should be this way, but nonetheless, they've got to come out and
07:59say it, Tim?
08:00Look, these prediction markets are trying to figure out how to make their platforms not just appeal to more people,
08:05but also less so the target from and of regulators and lawmakers.
08:10Axios also reporting this afternoon that Calci plans to block athletes, coaches, and officials from betting on their sports and
08:17block political candidates from trading on their campaigns.
08:20I expect we're going to hear more and more from these companies as they try to tamp down on so
08:24-called.
08:24But how do they do this?
08:25I mean, because there's been so much speculation, and particularly when it comes to some of these prop bets in
08:30sports and the idea of who is really behind some of those bets here.
08:33I mean, let's face it, some of those athletes are also, you know, actually, you know, ambassadors for these brands
08:38as well.
08:40Also, you can ban athletes, you can ban, you know, politicians as well.
08:45But you think about some of the insider activity that's been alleged when it comes to some of these platforms.
08:50I mean, it also extends to geopolitics and war as well.
08:54So it feels like when you're in these sort of situations, it's sort of whack-a-mole.
08:59You're not going to be able to sort of police everything, but at least the companies, you know, coming up
09:05and making some sort of stand here.
09:07The enforcement's still a question.
09:09All right.
09:10Well, it's certainly an important topic already this year, and maybe tomorrow we can talk about Remain's luxury ride and
09:14how he gets to work.
09:15So that's kind of a deep tease, perhaps.
09:17I'm his driver.
09:19Are you?
09:20Lucky you.
09:20I am.
09:21You signed an NDA then, that means.
09:23Yeah.
09:23It's actually where we discuss the whole show, and, you know, he kind of reads me in.
09:28Tim, you said too much.
09:29Whatever happens in the Maybach stays in the day.
09:32I thought it was on the back of his bicycle.
09:34That's how he gets to work.
09:35Oh, no.
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