00:00All right, let's end with Tom's espresso prisoner of the moment with Vinny P, Vinny Pascatino.
00:06Tom, you like a prop for him?
00:08I know it's not about that.
00:09It's a lot about the ballpark dynamics, and that's a really good look in baseball this season.
00:14I don't think people are aware that there are going to be more home runs at Kauffman Stadium this season.
00:20This is factual.
00:21When you bring in the fences, this has to happen.
00:23You're focused in on one player.
00:25Yeah, it'd be Vinny P, and his home run prop is 25.5.
00:28As you see there, it's a little bit juiced to the over.
00:30I'm kind of foregoing that and going straight to 30-plus home runs, which is sitting up at plus 150.
00:34So because home runs are so variable, I'm willing to – you know, I'd rather shoot for the plus money
00:38just because there's variance in it.
00:39And he ends up at 28, so be it.
00:41I still think the look was right.
00:43But to your point, they're bringing in the fences.
00:44The corners are also lowering them from 10 down to 8.5 in terms of the wall height, which is
00:49important.
00:50You know, Vinny P, he strikes out a little bit, but he does have a ton of power.
00:53And the pull error rate is very highly correlated with players that hit a ton of home runs,
00:58especially to their strong side.
01:00The lineup overall is going to produce runs.
01:02So when we have a player that's going to be hitting in the heart of a lineup,
01:04and I'm expecting big things from Jack Caglio and, of course, Sal Perez and Bobby Witt and Carter Jensen,
01:09like they have a ton of power in that lineup.
01:11That will only be accentuated.
01:12If we look back to last season, if you look at baseball, Savanti, expected home runs for players,
01:17and then look at the negative differential in terms of their actual home runs
01:20and then the expected home runs, we saw Vinny P as the second greatest differential,
01:26negative differential, second only to his teammate, Sal Perez.
01:29So there was no home runs last year at Coffin Field.
01:31They're trying to turn into more of a neutral park.
01:32So once we get the summer months rolling, and it is hot there,
01:35that lineup is going to be producing, and he will see good pitches to hit
01:39just because there's too much power around him in that lineup.
01:42So now we're going to go ahead and see what's going on in that lineup.
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