- 3 hours ago
Arsenal need a striker, and it looks like Benjamin Sesko might be their man. Adam Clery looks at what problems Mikel Arteta is having at the top end of the pitch, and why Sesko might be the perfect player to fix them... eventually.
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00:00Hello everybody, welcome back to the Adam Cleary Football Channel with me, obviously Adam Cleary, and our Arsenal signing Benjamin
00:08Sesko.
00:09Well, I can exclusively reveal for you all right now that nobody has any idea.
00:16They definitely need a centre forward, they definitely want a centre forward, but at this stage, your guess is as
00:22good as mine.
00:22But I'll tell you this though, as sure as eggs is eggs, which I think is an expression, they're definitely
00:28trying to get him, so shall we have a little look at why?
00:33Yes, we shall.
00:38Alright then, so Benjamin Sesko is a dashing centre forward, both in the sense that he is very quick, but
00:44also very handsome.
00:45He is 6 foot 5 inches, has started to fill out physically in the last year or so, and is
00:51still only 22 years old.
00:57Told you, every single video.
00:59In terms of his play style, he's an absolute all-rounder of a centre forward, he's extremely comfortable, taking it
01:05with his back to goal, bullying his marker, but also loves to hang on the shoulder of the last defender
01:11and burst in behind.
01:15Theoretically, it's a bit of a cross between what Haaland used to do at Dortmund and what Alexander Isak at
01:21Newcastle does now.
01:24That was not me saying, oh, he's a cross between Haaland and Isak.
01:29The main thing we are going to touch upon in this video is that if you do buy Benjamin Sesko,
01:36what you're really buying, what you're paying incredibly well for, is Benjamin Sesko's potential.
01:43Based on his five seasons in the Red Bull system, first at Salzburg and now at Leipzig, it looks like
01:49he could go right to the very top of European football.
01:53He could be one of the most ruthless, prolific, dominating centre forwards in all of world football, but crucially, unlike
02:02Isak and unlike Haaland, he is not that right now.
02:06He's nowhere near that. But in order to understand why that fact to one side, he still feels like a
02:12very appealing proposition to Arsenal and potentially even worth the money,
02:15you really do have to look at what Arsenal's best 11 is right now.
02:21Now, if you're an Arsenal fan, you no doubt will recall there was a little bit of sniffiness and scepticism
02:26when Kai Havertz started getting used in this sort of false nine top of the pitch role,
02:31but he adapted very well to it. He scored some really important goals. You would say everybody being fit, he's
02:37just starting centre forward.
02:38And indeed, last season, before the injury, he played all but two of his games directly through the middle and
02:44as a seasonal heat map, which, you know, I love a seasonal heat map,
02:48that's how this ends up looking. And as you can see, there's absolutely box presence. He will get himself in
02:54there.
02:54He loves getting on the end of a cross, but by and large, he is spending the majority of time
02:59where he is most comfortable,
03:01and that is in this sort of right-sided, outside-the-box channel.
03:06Now, do not get me wrong. I do not see this as a negative. Kai Havertz is extremely good at
03:13doing what it is that Kai Havertz does,
03:15but this is not the heat map of a player who is going to consistently and reliably disrupt opposition defences.
03:25And just to show you what that does look like over the course of a season, as a point of
03:29comparison,
03:29here is Alexander Isak's heat map last season.
03:33And you'll be able to see, pretty much straight away, not unlike Kai Havertz, he's another forward who is really
03:38good
03:39at dropping out of that central area, pulling defenders all over the place, getting on the ball in deeper areas.
03:45But you will also note that even for a striker who likes to drop off almost as much as Kai
03:51Havertz does,
03:52Isak's box presence is noticeably... what's the word I want here? Noticeably more... noticeably more, that'll do.
04:01Noticeably more noticeable. That's what you'll notice.
04:04But then, on top of that, even the times he is going looking for it, it is almost entirely central.
04:10Like, even though this is away from the goal, just the same as Kai Havertz is away from the goal,
04:14if you're a defender, you much rather would see the centre-forward going into these areas
04:19than you would the centre-forward going into these areas.
04:22Like, just to go back to Kai Havertz's heat map, like, it's still not ideal, this, don't get me wrong,
04:26but you'd be a lot more comfortable with it if you were a centre-back.
04:31Like, more things need to happen for a chance to come from here than they do for a chance to
04:35come from here.
04:36So that's Isak, obviously, but now, and pants immediately off, lads,
04:42this is Erling Braut Haarlandz.
04:46And obviously this is a player who can go looking for it if he really wants to,
04:49but Haarlandz, as I'm sure you well know, plays almost exclusively in f*** you mode.
04:55If you're daft enough to have a high line against Man City, he will steamroller past you into the space,
05:00and if you're really, really deep, he will just still try to steamroller through you
05:05to get on the end of the service he has provided.
05:08Don't get me wrong, he's not the battering ram he was at Borussia Dortmund,
05:12where every single game felt like some sort of social experiment
05:15on what would happen if you let the biggest boy in year 11
05:18play with just everybody in year 4, City are a very different team, it doesn't work like that.
05:23But, um, he's not not that player either.
05:26He still wants to absolutely monster defenders, and believe it or not, right,
05:32Kai Havertz is the same height as Haarland.
05:35They're both 6'4", um, but he doesn't do that.
05:38He's never going to do that.
05:39So, as raw as he is, and we're moving on to Sesko's heat map now,
05:44in case that wasn't immediately obvious, that is what he offers you.
05:48He's still got this throtting at the mouth desire to get into the box,
05:52to get a defender directly, but also he'll drop off,
05:55but pretty much exclusively to give himself, like, a running start on whoever it is
06:00is doing the marking of him.
06:02He profiles as a complete centre-forward, and that isn't just something Arsenal don't have,
06:08it's the main thing Arsenal don't have.
06:11It's the thing they're furthest away from having.
06:13So when you go through all the heat maps, and all the data, and all the numbers,
06:16and you actually sit and watch him as well,
06:18that is clearly the kind of player Benjamin Sesko is.
06:22Like, I am at pains not to get carried away here,
06:25but in terms of a profile, he's, like, crossed between Alexander Isak and Proto Haarland.
06:32Technically, positionally, physically, like, he's not there yet,
06:35but it looks like one day he might have the lot.
06:40So if, and don't get me wrong, right now that is an if so big you could see it from
06:45space, right,
06:46but if he reaches that potential, then he will have the technical mastery of Alexander Isak,
06:53but be way more physical and direct,
06:55and have that battering ram quality of Erling Haarland,
06:58but be way more comfortable dropping into certain spaces to link up the play.
07:03The problem is that right now, he is nowhere near said potential.
07:09Across Europe's top five leagues had a perfectly acceptable season
07:13for a 22-year-old playing for the Bundesliga's seventh best team.
07:1845 appearances in all competitions, including the Champions League,
07:2121 goals, 6 assists.
07:23He had a really rough start, only scoring in, like, one game out of the first eight,
07:28but then scores in five games in a row before ending the season with eight goal contributions,
07:34which I absolutely hate as a term.
07:35I think that's a bad process, but whatever.
07:37You get what I mean.
07:38You can see them there in 16 games.
07:41And don't get me wrong, those are pretty decent numbers,
07:43but when you start to look at his personal underlying numbers,
07:48they're a little bit of a ways away from what you'd ideally want to see
07:52if you're going to have to spend big money and you need goals right now.
07:56So, purely in terms of shooting, this is kind of the stats you want to look at
08:00because shot volume's more of an indicator of how well the team are playing.
08:04Like, you can be the best centre-forward in the world.
08:06If you're surrounded by a load of bombs, then your chances aren't going to be very good.
08:10So you sort of want to look at the conversion.
08:12He gets a good amount of his shots on target.
08:14That is a top 20% of strikers in Europe sort of score,
08:18but then it falls away a bit.
08:19And he's right around the European average for how many shots he needs to score a goal
08:24and how many shots on target he needs to score a goal.
08:27However, for the real nerds amongst us, like me,
08:31slightly more encouraging numbers if you go down the bottom here.
08:34The goals minus XG, which if you're into this kind of thing,
08:37basically the XG is how many goals he should have
08:39and the minus the amount of goals he does get.
08:41So if you end up with a positive number,
08:43you're an over-performer.
08:44You're an over-achiever.
08:45And he has got that.
08:46Not massively, don't get me wrong.
08:48He's not a miracle worker,
08:49but he is, according to the numbers,
08:51getting more goals than he probably should.
08:53And that's usually the hallmark of a good finisher.
08:56But to be fair, the reason he does that is pretty obvious.
09:00He's got an absolute cannon in his locker
09:03and will occasionally just kind of pad that stat out to hell
09:08by lashing one right in the top corner.
09:10And it's obviously much harder to find highlights of him doing things badly.
09:13But trust me on this,
09:14he is capable of murdering any small children
09:17who happen to sit in the first 20 rows.
09:20So if you're an Emirates season ticket holder behind the goals,
09:23maybe just be aware of that.
09:25But when he does connect,
09:26which sometimes he does,
09:27he really does connect.
09:29Anyway, some other numbers that are relevant to assessing him.
09:32You can see that the technical element of his game,
09:35his in-possession stats,
09:36his touches, touches in the middle,
09:38how frequently he both attempts to
09:40and successfully takes on an opponent,
09:43these elements of his game have come on quite considerably in the last year.
09:49Like if we compare these to the same numbers from last season,
09:52you will see that all the important bits are up quite considerably.
09:56So undeniably, he is developing.
09:59He's also just a beast in the air,
10:02like the very top percentage for the aerial win percentage in all of Europe.
10:06And obviously that will be a massive benefit to Arsenal
10:08because I don't know if you heard about this last season,
10:11but they're actually quite good at clever set piece routines
10:14and like to score those goals.
10:16Like I think Havertz is pretty good in the air.
10:19Like he gets a fair wedge of his Arsenal goals
10:20from just bulleting headers in,
10:23but you compare the two of them in terms of their win percentage
10:25and you can see straight away
10:27how much Sesko would add to the team
10:29in terms of his movement,
10:31his directness,
10:32his disruption factor,
10:33which is a thing to me.
10:37Like obviously I can't speak for Arsenal fans,
10:39but it does sort of feel,
10:40to me at least,
10:42that when it does not click for this team,
10:44it becomes really difficult for a sacker
10:47or for an Erdegaard
10:48to single-handedly go and make something happen
10:51in the final third.
10:53And there's obviously a number of reasons for that,
10:55like lack of depth,
10:57lack of options,
10:57lack of quality outside the starting 11.
10:59But the main one is the lack of a central focal point
11:03who even when they're not on their game
11:05will disrupt an opposition defence enough
11:07that they'll make an exploitable mistake.
11:10So take just this one moment, for example,
11:12and I'll just,
11:13yes, this is a massive bit of over-analysis,
11:15but I think if you've watched Arsenal enough
11:17in the last 12 months,
11:19it will absolutely make sense
11:21and ring several bells to you, right?
11:22So this moment here,
11:24this is against PSG
11:25and they are about to give the ball away
11:27and concede a great chance.
11:30But prior to that,
11:31they're knocking it about quite freely,
11:34trying to find an opening.
11:36That's why they give it away,
11:37because they can't find one.
11:38But at this exact moment,
11:40look first at the positions
11:41of Rice and Marino,
11:44who were trying to be
11:46those central focal points at top,
11:47and then look at the relative positions
11:50of the two PSG centre-backs.
11:54Marino has dropped off
11:55to get the ball in this pocket
11:57and they're just,
11:58they're not arsed.
12:00They're not afraid of him getting turned
12:02and running at them
12:03like a knee sack might do,
12:04so they've just let him go.
12:07Declan Rice is stood in behind
12:09and could curve a run around
12:11to take a ball over the top,
12:13but again,
12:15they're not arsed.
12:16They do not fear Declan Rice
12:18getting him behind.
12:19And you know that really basic,
12:21like Mel Robbins philosophy stuff
12:23that just everyone's sharing
12:24on Instagram at the minute?
12:26That is how a lot of teams
12:28view Arsenal's forward options.
12:30Just let them.
12:32Now imagine this was Alexander Rizak.
12:35There is no way
12:36you would just be casually
12:38walking behind him,
12:40waiting to see what happened.
12:41You'd be coming out of this line
12:42and thus either leaving a hole
12:44for somebody else to exploit
12:45or forcing the rest of the line up with you,
12:47creating even more space in behind.
12:50And then imagine this was Erling Haaland.
12:53There is no way
12:55you'd just be ignoring his position
12:57and casually walking away.
12:59You'd either be dropping back out of fear
13:01and creating a little space in front of you,
13:03or you'd be like constantly turning your head,
13:06trying to watch him and the ball
13:07at the same time
13:08and thus getting distracted.
13:10Like none of this makes Rice or Marino
13:12bad players
13:13or even makes them bad options
13:15at centre forward,
13:16but it does mean they lack
13:18that disruptor quality
13:19that you need
13:20in a top, top forward.
13:23And the thing is,
13:23Sesko's got a ways to go
13:26before he's good enough
13:26to do this consistently at this level,
13:28but he does
13:29do this.
13:31And given that
13:31Arsenal's biggest problems
13:32when they come up against
13:33really disciplined,
13:35deep, narrow, low blocks
13:36and they really struggle
13:37to find spaces
13:38or to force mistakes,
13:39he is already good
13:42at that part of the game.
13:45So, that's not nothing.
13:47The problem is,
13:47just to go back to this example here,
13:49at this stage of his career,
13:51there's no guarantee
13:52that if you found him
13:53in this space here,
13:55he wouldn't then just
13:55immediately give the ball away.
13:57Or that if he was here
13:58and you did manage
13:59to release him over the top,
14:00he would reliably convert that chance.
14:03And that's the thing I think
14:04that Arsenal really need to think about
14:06if they're going to do this transfer.
14:07Because, like, never mind the money,
14:09can they afford the time
14:11it's going to take
14:12for him to reach his potential
14:13when, as we all know,
14:15reaching potential
14:16is never a guarantee.
14:18He is an absolutely
14:20perfect fit for this team,
14:22theoretically,
14:24and in the long run.
14:25But it's so very hard to predict
14:27whether he can or will
14:28deliver in the short.
14:30I mean, shit, he might.
14:32Like, being around better players
14:34and working with Michael Arteta,
14:35he might just hit the ground running,
14:36switch goes off in his head,
14:37and he scores 50 goals
14:39and Arsenal win the lot.
14:41But that is a might.
14:43And 80 to 100 million euros
14:45is a lot of money
14:48for might.
14:49So, yes, you probably want
14:50some sort of conclusion
14:51given that you've sat through
14:52all of that.
14:54Do I think Arsenal should spend
14:56that sort of money
14:57on Benjamin Sesco?
14:59Yes, I do, actually.
15:01I really do.
15:02But you have to remember,
15:03I am not a member
15:04of Arsenal's board,
15:06recruitment team,
15:06coaching staff,
15:07or fan base.
15:08So I just want them to do that
15:10because I think
15:11it would be really fun.
15:12It could obviously
15:13go quite badly wrong
15:15and be an enormous waste of money,
15:16but I do not really,
15:18if I'm truthful,
15:19have the club's best interest at heart.
15:21I'm just in it for me.
15:22But yeah,
15:22if that's a satisfying
15:24enough conclusion for you
15:25and you've enjoyed this video,
15:26then please do consider
15:27subscribing to us
15:28here at ACFC.
15:29You may have seen,
15:30we've just shot past
15:30the old 100,000 subs mark.
15:32Booyah,
15:32no big deal.
15:34Etc.
15:34Arsenal fans,
15:35what do you want?
15:37I think we're all pretty aligned
15:38that you're going to need
15:39to send it forward,
15:40but do you want Sesco?
15:41Do you want Jacarez?
15:42Do you want a video on Jacarez?
15:43Do you want somebody else?
15:45I would be interested
15:46in reading that.
15:47It will almost certainly
15:49inform the next
15:50Arsenal video I do.
15:51So, yeah.
15:52In the meantime,
15:52you can get me
15:53across all the social medias
15:54at Adam Cleary,
15:55C-L-E-R-Y.
15:56I have to point at both sides
15:57because I can't remember
15:58which side of the screen
15:59I have to edit the thing on
16:01and until next time,
16:02it's probably gone by now,
16:03yeah,
16:04that's been me,
16:05that's been Benjamin Sesco,
16:06this is Arsenal,
16:07this is ACFC,
16:08and I'll see you soon.
16:10Bye!
16:11Bye!
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