00:00Depends on how long it lasts. I mean, if it lasted three or four weeks, maybe limited damage.
00:07But if it goes on any longer, I think quite significant damage.
00:11I was on a call with a few CEOs about 24, 48 hours ago, a lot of worried people.
00:18Because the markets to date have really underestimated.
00:23I mean, maybe on Friday we saw some more realism creeping in.
00:28So there's more pain in the S&P?
00:31Well, there should be, I think, in theory.
00:33I mean, the number of people on the call I listen to and I'm looking at stuff that's more publicly
00:38available,
00:39I think the general view is the markets have underestimated so far.
00:44They're betting on it being a three or four week war and not lasting much longer beyond that.
00:49But it certainly doesn't feel like that.
00:51The off-ramp, I hate that phrase, but the off-ramp is not a clear one.
00:56I mean, we're here in China. Some people posit maybe the Chinese can act as a diplomatic help.
01:07They've resisted that. I mean, they've resisted sending, obviously, any kind of military aid to the Straits of Hormuz.
01:13I was referring to diplomatic intervention or help, but it doesn't sound as though they're keen to do that either.
01:23They want stability, too. They're not necessarily...
01:25Would you feel that the Chinese are saying, hey, this is our advantage here?
01:30I don't know if they're saying it's an advantage. I think it's probably a disadvantage.
01:34I mean, their dependence on oil is significant.
01:37And diplomatically, though, I mean, obviously, the whole world gets oil shock.
01:41Well, I mean, just from a personal point of view, I think, you know, diplomatically it would be good for
01:46China
01:46to be seen as the opportunity or grasping the opportunity to try and develop a political solution, a diplomatic solution.
01:56So I think it's in their interests economically and, dare I say it, politically to be seen to do that,
02:03you know,
02:03as a force on the international scene, as a peaceful force on the international scene.
02:11I'm not talking about military intervention or anything like that.
02:14We have to see how this pans out. It's so unpredictable.
02:17And going back to your fundamental question, the one thing we don't need is this uncertainty, you know.
02:23I'd rather dribble along at a lower growth rate with some certainty than have this volatility.
02:30Sounding like the Chinese government a little bit.
02:32That's kind of you can kind of get Li Chong saying the same thing, right?
02:35Look, they're consistent in messaging.
02:39Yeah. No, I think I think the uncertainty.
02:42I mean, we've we've moved into a different age.
02:44You and I have talked about this for a number of years.
02:47I mean, the golden age of globalization, probably over fragmentation.
02:52You know, you've got U.S.-China relations is an issue.
02:56You've got and obviously the postponement of the meeting, to my mind, is not a good signal.
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