00:00Opening day, Tom, Bybee's going to go against Gilbert, a minus 178 price here as a favorite
00:05towards the Seattle Mariners. Let me ask you a question about the Mariners, Tom.
00:08Opening day, wins or losses, yes, that's fine. But we did see the WBC, Cal Raleigh and Randy
00:13Rosarani and his teammates had some words, but apparently patched it all up and should be good
00:17to go. Is that a facade that we should worry about? Or, hey, man, come on, they were just
00:21having some fun, the WBC, their teammates, they get it popping again. I think they've moved past
00:27that, as the reports have indicated. Heat of the moment type of thing, rivals when it
00:32comes to playing for the countries, I understand that. But as long as they say it's past them
00:37and they agree to it, I'm fine with it. The expectations for the Mariners are too high
00:42to have this little thing in an exhibition contest, essentially, play a negative impact
00:48on their team, actually play a bad thing for them. They have to move past it and realize
00:53there are bigger things at hand. Yeah, right out of the gate here, four games set and it
00:56keeps you saying, well, they skip any games. Mariners also have a retractable dome, so
01:00they don't have to have that built-in game after opening day that they would have to
01:03take off that day. Take a look at the four pitchers here that we're expecting here for
01:07the Mariners, Tom. Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, and Wu right out of the gate here to test that
01:12lineup for the Guardians here in a true pitcher's ballpark.
01:16It's awesome. It might be one of the best, if not the best, rotation in all of baseball,
01:22knowing the talent that they have, knowing the additions that they made to the hitting
01:26lineup overall. You know, the Guardians, I'm not high on this show. I don't think you were
01:30high on them either. The pitching is okay, but really the lineup's not good. And seeing what
01:36they did last year, needing this insane comeback in September, coupled with the Tigers collapse
01:42in September, if they needed that just to eke out a division win by tiebreaker, if that's what they
01:48needed just to make the playoffs, that means they weren't expected to make it at a certain point.
01:53And really, the floor for this team is very low, and the ceiling is also very moderate just to
01:58begin with. But it's all about the Mariners in this series.
02:02Fun MVP race last year in the AL, Tom, which had Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh down to the last
02:07day.
02:07He's like, who's going to win this out? And rightfully so, it was Aaron Judge. Overall,
02:10the metrics did make a little bit more sense. But we're talking about a catcher, Tom,
02:13that hit 60 home runs last year. And he's like, hey, well, he plays in Yankee Stadium. He plays in
02:18Brighley Field. No, no, no. He had 60 home runs. This is his home ballpark being in Seattle,
02:22which is incredible, up there at T-Mobile. But let's go over this number, Tom. 247 at the plate
02:27last year, 60 bombs. If you go to the sportsbooks now, most of them have Cal Raleigh listed at 39
02:33and a half home runs. That's a 20 home run drop, which, whoa, whoa, whoa. He's still going to be
02:38able
02:38to hit mid-40s at this point. That is as sharp a number as you're going to get, Tom. What
02:43do we think
02:43about Cal Raleigh's home run props for this year? I think it's spot on. I think expecting in the
02:50upper 30s is what we should be looking just from who he is as a hitter. Regardless of what he
02:55did
02:55last year, who he profiles as a hitter is where we should be seeing him in the upper 30s, maybe
03:01the
03:01low 40s. The strikeouts are always going to be the issue for me when it comes to Cal Raleigh. And
03:05we
03:05saw that in the World Baseball Classic where he struck out a lot. Again, he's a swing and miss
03:10hitter, but when he hits it, it goes far. So the number, I would never bet. Frankly, I'd bet the
03:16under before I'd bet the over. And that's really just because you're betting into a public number.
03:20You're betting into a number that the books have been ready to adjust. After he hit the home runs
03:25last year, it's not like they're going to be asleep at the wheel. They knew they're like, okay, we have
03:29to fine-tune this number this year because of the public interest that Cal Raleigh has. So I would
03:35never bet into a number that's moved before I had a chance to get action on it.
03:39Yeah. And take a look at, you know, one of the better hitters in baseball. I love Jay
03:42Ram here for the guardians here. He's listed time at 28 and a half as his home run prop this
03:47year. You know, you take a look at progressive field, Jacobs ballpark, whatever you want to
03:50call it in Cleveland here, not the easiest place to hit home runs, but Jose Ramirez fantastic
03:55here. Do you think he has a chance here to pop 30 bombs?
03:59I do. And listen, if he's getting to 30 bombs, I legitimately think he has a chance to win
04:04ALMVP. Like that's, I've always thought that about Jay Ram. Like he's truly one of the best,
04:09if not one of the most underrated and underappreciated hitters when it comes to the MLB.
04:15The team dynamic just never brings him the spotlight, but if he goes over 28 and a half,
04:20I legitimately think he's going to have a chance to win ALMVP. And we may be having a conversation.
04:25Let's say Cal Raleigh has a modest year overall. We may be having a judge Jay Ram ALMVP conversation.
04:32And Jay Ram is going to have great stats. He could go, he'd go 40, 40 for steal for home
04:37runs and steals, but he may still never win it, but I still think he'll be in the conversation.
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