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00:00President Trump has spoken about the need of others to come together to try and secure the Strait of Hormuz.
00:05Was this discussed with NATO and what's the latest?
00:09Well, first of all, I think we now need to de-escalate rather than escalate.
00:14So what we probably need is peace mediation.
00:17The actual original operation was not discussed with allies,
00:21but I'm sure that President Trump is now in conversation with the UK, with France, Germany, the big players.
00:27I think President Trump said that NATO faces a very bad future if U.S. allies fail to assist.
00:34How should we take that?
00:35Well, I think, you know, we obviously have to take everything that the President of the United States says seriously.
00:43I think the key now is to focus on the alliance and what we do.
00:47We are a defensive alliance, which means that we don't do military attacks as such.
00:55We are 32 countries.
00:57Of course, after the Cold War, we had some peacekeeping missions,
01:00but they were always justified through international law and U.N. charters.
01:05So this is quite different from that.
01:07Do you think the U.S. should be helped?
01:10I think those countries that have the capacity and the will to help the United States will do that and
01:16should do that.
01:16We have to understand that the situation, of course, in the Middle East and in the Gulf region right now
01:21is extremely serious.
01:23We have Iran that has attacked somewhere between 10 to 13 different countries with missiles and drones,
01:30and that's why I think any de-escalatory measure right now would be very useful.
01:37Iran's interests, though, the problem here is that Iran seems to have three interests.
01:42One is to cause damage to its neighbors.
01:45Two is to maximize the harm on the global economy through the oil price.
01:50And the third one is to keep up their current regime.
01:53But how does this de-escalate?
01:56First of all, who are the right people or the right person to try and help?
01:59Well, we need a ceasefire.
02:01So I'm just wondering whether, you know, the Europeans or actually India could get involved.
02:07We saw Foreign Minister Jaishankar calling for a ceasefire and negotiations just to calm down the temperature and freeze the
02:15situation that it is.
02:16The problem in these kinds of situations is when you kind of have three players, Israel, the U.S. and
02:21Iran,
02:21all with more or less different interests, it's very difficult for them to organize themselves into a peace kind of
02:29a situation.
02:30Do you have a clear understanding of what the U.S. is trying to achieve?
02:34I think the original aim, and, you know, obviously I don't want to give advice to the U.S. administration,
02:40but from what I understand, number one was to shut down the U.S., the Iranian nuclear program.
02:47Number two was to damage their capability in terms of missiles and both launching and defense.
02:55Number three were the proxies, so terrorist organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
03:01And number four was regime change.
03:03And then, of course, you know, you're going to have to ask the American administration which one of this is
03:08more important,
03:09which one is going to materialize.
03:10President Stubb, the EU High Representative Kayakalas was talking about repurposing the EU's Red Sea naval mission to the Strait
03:17of Hormuz.
03:18Is this a good idea?
03:19Well, I haven't seen the latest reports on the EU foreign ministers' meeting, but that could be one way of
03:25helping out.
03:26But that is for the EU foreign ministers to decide, and I think they're still sitting as we are having
03:32this conversation.
03:32So I don't know the outcome.
03:34And I understand you're calling for de-escalation, but how worried are you that this actually escalates, that the conflict
03:41widens?
03:42I'm worried, because what we used to see, especially after the Cold War, were local conflicts, almost like wars have
03:50been sort of civil wars.
03:51Now we're seeing regional.
03:52I mean, first we saw Israel, Palestine.
03:56Then we've seen Russia, Ukraine.
03:59And now, of course, we see Iran and 10 to 13 countries.
04:03So, of course, I'm worried.
04:04And, you know, to all of my European friends or American friends, I sort of ask the question that how
04:10would we feel if there were missiles flying in our region to 13 different countries?
04:15Of course, we would be extremely worried.
04:17And that is the mindset that I think a lot of the countries in the Gulf region and in the
04:21Middle East have, because they didn't want this war.
04:23And that's the problem.
04:24That's why I think we need to, you know, bring down the temperature.
04:27The United States military has shown its might.
04:30There's no question about that.
04:31You know, they've hit X amount of targets quite successfully.
04:35But now it's time to please calm down.
04:37There are also media reports that actually Russia was reportedly sharing intelligence with Iran on the location of U.S.
04:44forces.
04:44Yeah.
04:45Is that true?
04:45Well, it's super worrying, yes.
04:47I mean, and I wouldn't put it past them.
04:49And this is what I try to tell my American friends as well, that, you know, there are two elements
04:53of this.
04:54One is that Russia is now giving Shahids back to Iran, which they can hit American bases.
05:00And two, they're giving intelligence about where the American bases are.
05:05So basically giving the executive order to kill American soldiers.
05:10And I'd be very worried about that.
05:12But of course, as a Finn, I'm more worried about the repercussions on the war in Ukraine, because that's in
05:18many ways, you know, our war, which we feel very strongly about.
05:22And we're seeing now increased oil prices, which basically feed the Russian war machinery.
05:28We're seeing the United States lifting sanctions on Russian oil.
05:32We're seeing the U.S. giving a waiver to India for buying Russian oil.
05:38So everything is linked to everything.
05:40And we need to get back to focus also on Ukraine.
05:44That's why we need a ceasefire in Iran.
05:46But is this good or bad news for Ukraine?
05:49So if Russia is implicated, actually, in the war in the Middle East, does it make it more likely that
05:54they can't share intelligence with Iran or can't send, get missiles, actually, when it comes to Ukraine?
05:59Well, if this was a binary, you know, choice between good and bad, I'd say it's bad because of the
06:06oil price, in other words, for Ukraine.
06:09But the situation actually on the military front for Ukraine is good.
06:14They're actually getting back more territory than what Russia is getting.
06:18And obviously, the lethality of the Ukrainian war machinery and defense forces is very strong because in the past three
06:26months, there have been over 90,000 dead Russian soldiers with much, much, much, much less on the Ukrainian side.
06:35So from a military perspective, I'm not too worried right now.
06:39But from a financial perspective, in other words, feeding the Russian war machinery, I am worried.
06:44What do you say to people who say, well, if the U.S. can act this way in Venezuela and
06:48Iran, then actually Russia can act this way in Ukraine?
06:51I think a lot of countries are now working outside the framework of international law.
06:56And that's why I have called, you know, for a revamping of the world order, a return back to international
07:03institutions, norms and laws.
07:05But in order for that to happen, you need a consensus among the 200 nation states of the world.
07:11And I have always believed that, you know, in the future, it should be the likes of India and others
07:17that have a bigger say in this.
07:19But right now we're seeing what, you know, Hobbesian world means, a world where power vacuums emerge and then someone
07:27feeds them.
07:28For me, diplomacy is always about win-win.
07:31And right now we're seeing zero sum, a lot of transactions and deals, and it doesn't seem to be working.
07:37Does it have to get worse before it gets better?
07:39I hope it wouldn't.
07:40But obviously, you know, the fact that we already had a huge war of aggression from Russia to Ukraine, we
07:48had a very complicated situation in Gaza.
07:52Now we have a full-blown war in the Middle East.
07:55It seems to be getting worse before it can get better.
07:58You're also hosting a meeting of the Joint Expeditionary Force in Helsinki next week.
08:03I mean, this is basically a regional defense cooperation framework, right, led by the U.K.
08:08What are you hoping to achieve?
08:09Well, basically, we're 10 countries there.
08:12So it's the Nordics and the Baltics, eight, plus then the Netherlands and the U.K.
08:16And, you know, probably hoping to achieve three things.
08:21One is to what is our focus on the eastern front and the eastern flank?
08:25What can we do to together, jointly, strengthen our military there?
08:29Second, north, because of the Arctic.
08:32So I think from a security perspective, the key is northern Finland, Sweden and Norway.
08:38What can we do there?
08:39Now we have actually a training exercise in northern Finland and northern Norway, 25,000 troops.
08:46And then thirdly, we kind of want to look at the future of GEF, as we call it, you know,
08:51how we can improve sort of regional security in general.
08:55So it's a good place also to prepare a little bit the NATO summit that's coming up in Ankara next
09:00summer.
09:01Have you asked the Prime Minister of Canada to join the meeting?
09:04And should Canada actually join GEF?
09:06He, I don't know if it's public yet, but now it will become public, that he will, he might call
09:12in.
09:13And do you expect Canada to join this initiative?
09:16I think we'll see.
09:17I mean, what we usually do in this group is that, which was founded by the U.K., is that
09:23we get someone to call in, you know, on the Arctic.
09:26We get someone to call in on the east and then we'll see how things go.
09:30I mean, going back to Ukraine, how focused do you think President Trump is on finding a solution for Ukraine,
09:36given everything that's going on in the Middle East?
09:39You know, I can't speak for the president himself, but I do sort of sense certain frustrations and impatience with
09:48the situation right now, which does worry me, because there are now kind of two fronts.
09:53Of course, one in Iran, where the U.S. is really involved, and then one in Ukraine, where the U
09:59.S. is mediating.
10:01And then any time there is a situation ongoing where American troops are involved, where the costs are astronomical, then
10:12I think the focus is there more than on the peace mediation, unfortunately.
10:15Do you think Vladimir Putin would, you know, and basically keep his side of the bargain?
10:24In which way?
10:25If there is some kind of peace negotiation?
10:28I think what we're seeing right now is Vladimir Putin and Russia not wanting peace and the Ukrainians wanting peace.
10:35That's the base case that we work with.
10:38I mean, for this year, we kind of have three scenarios.
10:40One is that the war continues.
10:42The second one is that there's a peace agreement.
10:45And the third one is that, you know, one side or the other loses support.
10:50We're working on all three scenarios.
10:53President Stubb, when you look at, you know, what could end the war quickly in the Middle East, a ceasefire
10:58or something like that, I mean, is it the price of oil shooting at $200 or the price of gasoline
11:03at $5, like some people say?
11:05Difficult to say.
11:06It's probably a combination of the above.
11:09Of course, in the U.S. we have midterms coming up that, you know, might influence the impact of the
11:15war.
11:15The second one probably because, you know, you have sort of a military approach to this and you have a
11:20political.
11:21And, you know, what has the United States and Israel defined as their military achievement?
11:28So, if it's, you know, getting rid of Iranian nuclear weapons, missiles, whatever the case might be, and they decide,
11:35okay, from a military perspective, Mr. President, we have now won.
11:39That could end it.
11:40And then from a political perspective, I think it's more about markets, the price of oil, price of gasoline or
11:48a gallon of gas in the U.S., as they say.
11:51That might sort of, you know, tip the bucket.
11:54Do you think that, I mean, this actually could tip the world economy into a recession or a close to?
11:59I think it's too early to say, but I have heard people saying that this could be potentially more serious
12:04than COVID.
12:05So, then we understand the magnitude.
12:08Of course, it's different from the oil crisis in 1973 onwards.
12:13The premises are different, the flows are different, the energy portfolios of states are different.
12:20And, of course, the impact on the different regions.
12:22I mean, so the Straits of Hormuz, they have a bigger impact on Asia than they have on Europe.
12:28But to say that we are not, you know, impacted is wrong.
12:32The U.S. is also impacted.
12:34It's about inflation.
12:35It could be about interest rates.
12:38It's about price of fertilizers.
12:41So, when you sort of stop 20% of trade in a certain area, it's going to hit all of
12:47us in one way or another.
12:48And that's why I think it's very important now to get that ceasefire going.
12:52When's the last time you spoke to President Trump?
12:55You know, we speak or message fairly frequently, and I keep them private.
12:59And so, you don't have an insight into his state of mind right now or what he's thinking next?
13:03I mean, I think we try to have connections with European leaders, world leaders, with President Trump, and try to
13:10figure out how we can best solve this crisis.
13:13I myself, in my capacity as President of Finland, I see myself very much in the back office.
13:18So, if I can share some information on Ukraine or elsewhere to the President of the U.S. or someone
13:23else, I hope I'm useful.
13:25President Stubb, I mean, you're also a great student of, you know, defense and military might.
13:29But what has this war so far taught us about, there's also a huge fight between Anthropoc and the Pentagon.
13:35It does feel like, you know, the front lines are now bought through AI.
13:40Do you worry about some of those lines being crossed?
13:44I don't, it's not my primary worry because this is obviously a war where we're not, at least yet, have
13:51seen boots on the ground.
13:53So, it's very much an air attack.
13:55So, from a military analytical perspective, I am impressed with what the United States and Israel are capable to do.
14:02And I'm also positively surprised to see what Iran is able to do.
14:07And positively, I don't mean that I agree with it, I disagree with what they're doing.
14:11But the bottom line is that we are now moving towards a warfare, which is quite different from what it
14:16used to.
14:16And I think the best way to describe it is that the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine
14:22was very much in the trenches and tanks in World War I.
14:26And now we've moved into a completely different level where we're seeing, you know, airspace and others being dominated by
14:32drones.
14:33And that brings a new dimension.
14:34And then when we add on to that AI, we have to understand that it has changed war and the
14:41way in which we're conducted.
14:42And we're seeing it in a modern kind of a way.
14:45I mean, I remember as a young student in the U.S. watching the Gulf War.
14:50And for the first time, you know, the likes of Bloomberg and CNN reporting from the war on rooftops somewhere
14:56in the Middle East.
14:57And that was mind-boggling.
14:59Now you see it in real time.
15:00So, it does make a difference.
15:02Is it more dangerous?
15:04You know, if we were to move to a world where it was conducted by robots, by AI, by unmanned
15:14vehicles,
15:15and if we would stick to the rules of law, not to rules of war, not to hit civilian targets,
15:22then it would be less dangerous.
15:23We would be destroying machines.
15:26But, of course, the world is different.
15:29You know, we see the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
15:35We see the destruction of civilian infrastructure in the Middle East as well.
15:41I'm going to have to look at all the conditions of the future in Ukraine.
15:41I don't know.
15:41I've got to think.
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