00:03we've seen thousands dead in Iran we've seen US service members killed and injured
00:10it was just an excursion into something that had to be done beyond the humanitarian catastrophe
00:18the Iran war has really highlighted the critical nature of the supply that the Persian Gulf provides
00:25of oil to the world oil hits triple digits oil flirting with 120 dollars a barrel it's a very
00:31oil rich region the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade
00:39as reports suggest Iran is beginning to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz when you look at the map
00:47you think goodness how did we ever get to a situation where we depended so much on this narrow
01:01waterway the situation we're in right now is unprecedented for years we have always seen
01:06the Strait of Hormuz that narrow waterway that runs alongside Iran that isn't that crucial oil producing
01:12area we've always known that was a vulnerable point but it's never been closed off like this
01:17and Iran's new leader says he wants it to remain shut the only comparable analog to this in recent
01:25years is the 2019 al-ab-cake attacks in Saudi Arabia and this knocked out about 6 million barrels a
01:33day
01:33of capacity the key question here is duration and every day that this goes on it becomes closer to a
01:40crisis to try to help the International Energy Agency which is calling it the largest supply
01:46disruption in the history of the global oil market has announced a record release of 400 million barrels
01:52of oil from its emergency reserves we've heard President Donald Trump say that the war is near
01:58to an end we've already won in many ways but we haven't won enough Karg Island this is Iran's
02:05largest storage and bunkering facility within the Persian Gulf if we see US military operations
02:12targeting Karg Island this would mark a major escalation targeting of the economic lifeblood
02:18of the country could spiral and when we could see even more intensified attacks on regional energy
02:24infrastructure within the Gulf the Strait of Hormuz is important roughly 100 to 120 vessels cross this
02:36every day it's a very narrow waterway it's only 21 miles wide it's quite shallow as well they can't
02:42actually close it without force but what we've seen is that the violence and the threat of violence
02:48has kept ship owners away we've seen this result in extreme oil volatility over the last few days even
02:56up to nearly 120 dollars a barrel on the Brent global benchmark back in February the major Gulf
03:02producers were producing 20 million barrels per day as of this week our reporting shows that 6.7 million
03:09have been shut down this has immense downstream effects primarily on fuel consumers so airlines
03:17chemicals fertilizers and then of course on the consumer China Japan South Korea the primary supply crunch
03:27will be felt within Asia where the rubber hits the road the real shortages rationing panic cues that has
03:34all been happening so far in Asia there are very limited bypass options for crude oil and LNG outside of
03:43the Persian Gulf Russia is set to gain from this conflict in some ways we've already seen the US
03:53administration issue waivers to allow India to buy sanctioned Russian oil obviously a higher oil price is good
04:01for Putin too in the US we're not looking at sort of supply concerns but what you're seeing is the
04:09gasoline
04:09price jump because this is a global market and so the price of oil is is set globally Iran has
04:17really
04:17shown that has the ability to impose asymmetric costs and pain on the global economy and on the Western
04:26allies market doesn't appear to be pricing a long conflict one thing that people are really would be
04:32really watching for is the idea that the US Navy would be escorting oil tankers now obviously this is not
04:38without risk and it does mean putting soldiers lives in danger in in the name of letting oil travel
04:45freely but that is definitely something that the market is is is looking out for
05:08privately hesitating oil tankers so our snackers have more loosely created for the pandemic so our
05:09customers tend to provide additional tiers so there's very few th iranden vouchers very widely ADAMS
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