00:00We've seen prices come back, and I believe nine straight days of gains for Brent crude.
00:07Is there any indication that traders expect these prices to come down amid a de-escalation?
00:15Hi, thanks for having me on.
00:18So I think the problem with prices is you don't know when this ends, right?
00:24There's a huge amount of oil that's been kept off the market.
00:27And until there's some kind of clarity about a resumption of flows through Hormuz, it's an open-ended thing.
00:34So the IEA said today that you're losing about 8 million barrels a day of supply this month.
00:41That works out about 250 million barrels.
00:43So right there, you've already lost a huge chunk of the emergency release that the IEA coordinated yesterday.
00:51How long does this go on?
00:52How long is it before we need to think about what comes next?
00:57And in the meantime, further attacks on shipping.
00:59Wall Street Journal reports of the U.S. saying that Iran has laid down mines.
01:04Alaric, when you look at the move forward and how ships are actually or not traversing the Strait of Hormuz,
01:10again, the energy secretary is saying that they might be able to start guiding ships through by the end of
01:16the month, I believe is what he said.
01:18Do we have a sense, Tez, whether any of this is actually possible, given the constant news of attacks and
01:25possible mines and drones in the region?
01:28I think it's the least bad option is to have escorts.
01:33But at the moment, there doesn't seem to be a clear sign that that's really, you know, imminent.
01:37So if it happens, I'm sure that many owners will clamour to join those escorts, assuming that their crews and
01:47captains are willing to go through.
01:49But we're not there yet. We've got to have the plan set out.
01:53And at the moment, there's this conflict going on that needs to be kind of, you know, dealt with.
01:59And until that happens, it's hard to see a really, really rigorous and secure convoy system being created.
02:07So the conflict needs to die down.
02:09And once a conflict dies down, then you start thinking about escort programmes.
02:13And you need to also see what the Iranian response is to those things.
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