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Europe Today: guerra no Irão chega ao 12.º dia e líderes da UE criticam falta de estratégia

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00:12Transcrição e Legendas por QTSS
00:30The leaders are growing increasingly exasperated.
00:33German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says he's becoming deeply concerned
00:36about what he calls an apparent lack of strategy from the United States and Israel.
00:41He said that they have no interest in, he has said he's no interest in a quote endless war.
00:46And while you were sleeping, tensions in the Middle East escalated with heavy strikes hitting Iran,
00:52Lebanon and the Gulf states.
00:53Subvision casualties are rising and in Lebanon, thousands of people have already been displaced.
00:59The US says it's destroyed 16 Iranian mine laying vessels after Pentagon Chief Pete Heggs
01:04has warned that the most intense day of US strikes on Iran was yet to come.
01:09For more on the ongoing war and Europe's reactions,
01:11we're joined here in the studio by our EU news editor, Maria Tadeo.
01:15Good morning, Maria. So a lot to process this morning. Fill us in.
01:18Well, a lot to process because this is still a story, obviously,
01:21about war in the region and energy, which is critical, of course, for the global economy.
01:29And once again, is the spotlight on the Strait of Hormuz and oil.
01:33And of course, there are now concerns, increasing concerns.
01:37This is an area that now Iran will target with mines.
01:40And obviously, that means that transportation and the flows of oil, which need to come out of the Strait,
01:46also coming out of the Gulf of Persia, too, could be impacted even more severely.
01:52And this is one of the most critical locations when it comes to the global energy market.
01:56This is why we're seeing this whiplash and energy prices up and down on any news
02:01related to the ability to get oil out of the region.
02:05Now, on that note, yesterday, President Trump issued a warning in a post on social media
02:11in which he said if the mines, you know, for some reason are placed and they are not removed for
02:16with,
02:17so immediately the military consequences to Iran will be, quote, at a level never seen before.
02:23So obviously, that's the U.S. responding again to reports that this is the next stage for Iran
02:30when it comes to the strategy of now escalation, but also chaos with no signs that the regime
02:36or the new Ayatollah is willing to engage for the time being with the U.S.
02:41And the story, as I say, is critical and it really matters, not just because of the energy market,
02:45the implications for the economy, but also because it really speaks to the U.S. strategy.
02:51You alluded to the German Chancellor saying we are confused.
02:55Is there a goalpost? Is there a goal? What is the goal?
02:58What is the strategy from the U.S.?
03:00And the thing about the energy market is that it never lies.
03:03You're either able to get the flow of oil up and running or you're not.
03:07And if you're not and the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to go up
03:11and you do see that tankers become blocked, not only this is going to have major repercussions in the market,
03:16but it also could show, and this is a fundamental point, that the U.S., alongside Israel, of course,
03:21has gone into a major military operation without all the details figured out.
03:26So this is a critical point at this stage.
03:29And that's why Emmanuel Macron, he's hosting a G7 call today.
03:32Yes, precisely. Of course, we've seen the G7 meet on the finance sphere with the ministers of finance.
03:39Then, of course, the energy ministers who met yesterday.
03:42But today, this is a meeting that is going to take place at 3 p.m. Paris time.
03:45It is hosted by the French and Emmanuel Macron because the French hold the presidency.
03:50And, of course, President Trump is going to participate now.
03:53Sources close to the lease say that the goal of this meeting is to take stock of the geo-economic
03:59repercussions of this war,
04:00and in particular, when it comes to energy.
04:03Obviously, there's been a lot of debate around the idea of releasing strategic oil reserves
04:07to really deal with the issues in the energy market.
04:10Although I speak to many analysts who say the issue is not the stocking, really.
04:14The oil is there.
04:15The issue is the transportation and the impact on prices.
04:18And then to that extent, however, we also have to keep an eye today on the International Energy Agency
04:24because overnight reports that they could also release and make the biggest single-day release of oil
04:31even surpassing the 182 million barrels that they put out in 2022 when the war in Ukraine broke out
04:37to deal with the implications and the ramifications in the energy market.
04:40But again, one of the fundamental questions beyond pricing and just logistics,
04:44is there a plan really to get oil coming out?
04:47And does the U.S. really have a strategy?
04:49And to more confusion, just briefly,
04:50Yesterday, the U.S. Secretary for Energy said that they had managed to escort tankers out.
04:55Then he deleted it, and it was obvious that no tanker had been escorted out.
04:59So again, there's a lot of confusion, not just in the logistics, but really, is there a plan?
05:04And of course, you had the opportunity to speak to the European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen.
05:08He was in Strasbourg yesterday.
05:09We can take a look now at that interview, Maria.
05:11This is, of course, a very serious situation.
05:14It is not as bad as in February 22 when Russia attacked Ukraine.
05:19At that time, we were more dependent on one single source of our energy, and it was fossil.
05:24It was gas from Russia.
05:25Now we are better situated to deal with the situation.
05:28But still, when the world market prices go up, it is a problem for us,
05:34which shows us one thing very clearly.
05:36That is, let's get rid of the dependency of fossil fuels.
05:40Let's have more homegrown, clean energy.
05:42And of course, the G7 has been holding meetings.
05:45There's a lot of speculation about a release of strategic reserves.
05:48Is that something that you think would be helpful at this stage?
05:51It is something that can become relevant.
05:53It would help keep the prices down.
05:56We are not in a situation where we have security of supply issues in Europe right now.
06:01But of course, the question of the prices are extremely important for our citizens and our industries.
06:07And we also need to be working in solidarity with our partners in the international energy agency network.
06:15So is there going to be a release of these assets?
06:17Or is it something that at this point, there's consensus is a good idea, but not a date?
06:22What would trigger it?
06:23That is too early to say we are in the process of analyzing this.
06:27But of course, it can happen.
06:29And of course, your job is to ensure energy security for the European Union.
06:32You say this is different to the Russian invasion, but there is a question of pricing.
06:36What measures in the short term can you put forward to deal with the escalation in prices?
06:41Of course, there is a very clear concern for us that the prices are too high for our citizens and
06:47our industry.
06:48That's also why today we've put forward several different measures, both some that has the aim to help our long
06:55term transition, but also some that can work short term.
06:58For instance, we've sent a very clear signal to the member states of the union, and we recommend that you
07:03lower the taxes on electricity.
07:06That would make it easier for your industry to compete.
07:09It will make it easier for your citizens to pay their bills, and it will be good for the green
07:14transition.
07:14And you can do that tomorrow.
07:16It's not something where you have to wait for a new legislative proposal to be put forward for long negotiations
07:21and so forth.
07:22It can be done short term.
07:24And is that the maximum that you contemplate, or is there more things that you could put on the table
07:28if the situation deteriorates?
07:30There's definitely more things that can be put on the table.
07:33It's also very clear that there's a big difference between being in a serious situation like the one we're in
07:38now and being in an emergency like the one we had in 22.
07:43And since we're not there yet, we're not applying some of the emergency measures that we did in 22.
07:48There has been calls now that leaders could ask, certainly next week when they meet and they talk about competitiveness,
07:54for another review of the ETS.
07:56Is that something that you would say, yes, everything can be reviewed?
08:01We are, of course, continuously discussing what to do with regards to our long-term transition in the European Union,
08:08whilst at the same time addressing immediate needs.
08:11What's important for me to say is that our fundamental direction is the right one.
08:17We need to move away from fossils.
08:19We need to have a green transition.
08:21Why?
08:21Because it lowers prices, because it helps us decarbonize, but also because it gives us the energy security that we
08:27so clearly do not have right now.
08:29Now, that's the lesson we learned from the situation in Ukraine when Russia attacked.
08:34But it's actually also a lesson that we are reminded now that other geopolitical events are affecting our price levels
08:43in Europe.
08:43Of course, you hear the industry saying the issue is that Europe does not have energy security.
08:48You cannot be competitive if you do not have energy security.
08:51Is that an exaggeration, or do you look at it and you say, it's a fair point.
08:54At this point, Europe does not have that level of security.
08:57No, unfortunately, it's very clear that we are not independent.
09:01We import for more than 370 billion euros fossils every year.
09:06That's not sustainable for our climate, certainly, but not for our economy either.
09:11We need to use more homegrown energy.
09:14The good news is that that homegrown energy will also be cheaper than the fossil alternative.
09:18So, not only will it help us to become more independent and therefore be good for our security,
09:23it will also be good for our economy.
09:26Now, this is not something that might happen in the future and that we're waiting for.
09:30This is something that we are already doing.
09:32So, last year, we deployed a record of 89 gigawatts of new renewables.
09:37That saved us more than 30 billion euros just this newly deployed renewables.
09:43And this year, we will do the same.
09:45So, we are moving in the right direction.
09:46But when are you going to see that manifested in prices, however, especially given this volatility?
09:51Because the direction of prices has been up, certainly, for the past week.
09:54The deployment of new renewables brings the prices down.
09:57This means that had we not had the renewables that we have, the prices would have been much higher.
10:01That's one of the reasons why we don't see the same effects now as we did in 2022.
10:05So, when prices are set for electricity, for instance, the most cheap energy bids first, and that's the renewables.
10:13Then, sometimes, if you don't have enough renewables in the system, and it's the fossils that set the price, the
10:19gas that sets the price,
10:20that's when the prices go up.
10:22Also, on the renewables, and the less hours, the better we can become at having less hours of the fossil
10:30setting the price, the better, of course, it is.
10:32So, that's one of the reasons.
10:34I know it's a bit complicated, but that's one of the reasons why we are in a better situation now
10:38than we were in 2022.
10:39The Russian president has said that Russia is ready to intervene in this market to stabilize prices.
10:44When you hear that, what does that make you think?
10:47What does that allude to you?
10:48We absolutely do not want Russian energy.
10:51Russia is conducting a terrible war on our friends in Ukraine, and we do not want to help indirectly finance
10:58that war by buying Russian energy.
11:01Russia has weaponized energy against us.
11:03Russia has blackmailed member states of the European Union using energy.
11:07So, for us, we've said no more to this, and that is a standpoint that we will stick to.
11:16Now, the war in Iran has spread to Lebanon, where Israel has vowed to root out the Iran-backed Shia
11:22militia Hezbollah.
11:23Thousands of people are on the move, mostly from south Lebanon, from a war that has already caused almost 600
11:30deaths in the country.
11:31In a last-ditch effort to stop the violence, the Lebanese government asked for direct talks with Israel.
11:36Through a U.S. intermediary.
11:38So far, the U.S. and Israel have rebuffed the proposal, albeit not officially saying the government should focus on
11:44disarming Hezbollah.
11:45Your News' senior editor and Middle East expert, Sophie Claudet, spoke to Lebanon's energy minister, Joe Sadi.
11:51Here's what he had to say.
11:52This was indeed a very courageous initiative by our president.
11:59But as of this time, I am not aware of any response yet.
12:06But don't you think it's a little too late?
12:08As per the 2024 ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, the Lebanese government was supposed to disarm Hezbollah.
12:16This hasn't happened.
12:17And we've seen now what's happening.
12:20Obviously, I think everybody would wish that the implementation of this would happen much quicker.
12:28But this has to do on one side with, you know, the availability of the capabilities of the Lebanese army.
12:39It has to do with also, you know, the behavior of Israel during that whole period.
12:48But does the army have even the capabilities of disarming Hezbollah, which is a state within the states?
12:53Based on what the, I'm not a military expert, but based on what the army says, they do not have
13:00all the capabilities they need to do this by their own account.
13:07Which is why, if you're in anger, there was a plan to do it in multiple phases.
13:12Prime Minister Netanyahu has been very clear in his will to completely root out Hezbollah.
13:17And I may remind our viewers that Hezbollah is not only a military faction, it's also a political and social
13:25movement that is deeply rooted in Lebanon.
13:27Do you think that Israel can root out Hezbollah?
13:30The military side of Hezbollah has now been declared illegal by our government.
13:36The political and prime minister did say that if Hezbollah was to date of that purely as a political party,
13:47then he would have no problem with it.
13:52But I understand that Lebanese authorities can live with Hezbollah being a political social movement.
13:59But Israel is increasingly showing signs that it cannot.
14:03And Hezbollah is an ideology.
14:05How can you defeat an ideology?
14:07The way forward is to show what the state can do, deliver basic goods and services on all fronts, health,
14:19social, education, etc.
14:21But for the state to be able to deliver this, it needs financial, it needs political willingness, which I think
14:27it has.
14:28But it also needs financial means.
14:30And unfortunately, Hezbollah dragging us again back into the war, it makes the availability of international funding that much more
14:41difficult and distant in time.
14:46Do you think if the Iranian regime was completely defeated, that would significantly weaken Hezbollah as a movement, as an
14:53ideology, as a popular movement in Lebanon?
14:55The lifeline, there is a financial lifeline for Hezbollah coming from Iran that said publicly there is a military one
15:03probably that has severely decreased since the regime change in Syria, but certainly on the financial front as well.
15:13And so any reduction, any major reduction, and both on the military side and on the financial side, in terms
15:22of lifeline to Hezbollah certainly would weaken it.
15:29And with the situation in the Middle East getting worse and thousands now internally displaced, with some stadiums even turned
15:35into shelters, the EU Agency for Asylum is preparing for potential humanitarian crisis.
15:43War. War. War never changes.
15:47But while the news cycle obsesses over tactical maps, your reporter is looking at the people.
15:53President Trump has called the conflict a short-term excursion.
15:57But if he's wrong, Europe could deal with a refugee crisis of an unprecedented magnitude.
16:03And history shows that when a home becomes a battlefield, people move towards safety and existing ties.
16:09So where could they go?
16:12Currently, roughly 4 million Iranians live abroad.
16:15And most of them migrated during or after the 1979 revolution.
16:21In Europe, Germany leads with over 300,000 people.
16:25Followed by the UK and Sweden, with each hosting around 100,000.
16:30In 2025, only 8,000 Iranians sought asylum in Europe, which is less than 1% of all applications.
16:39But with a population of 90 million, the EU Asylum Agency warns that even partial instability could trigger a massive
16:47refugee crisis.
16:48However, the agency also calls this scenario highly speculative, stressing it is too early for firm predictions.
16:56But you should know, this isn't only about Iran.
16:59It is about the whole region.
17:01Iran is already one of the world's largest refugee hosts.
17:06A home to over 1,5 million of them and many more with an undocumented status.
17:12Most of refugees come from Afghanistan and Iraq and are now caught in just another war zone.
17:18And the ripple effect is spreading.
17:21According to the International Organization for Migration, over 660,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon because of the conflict.
17:30And right now, no one knows yet how or when the war will end.
17:36But for Europe, it seems that the consequences are no longer distant.
17:45And it is in this very context that MEPs are gathering in Strasbourg this week.
17:50European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to address the Parliament this morning.
17:54For more on that, we can now cross over to the European Parliament in Strasbourg and bring in your news
17:59as Marete Gwynne-Jones.
18:00Good morning, Marete.
18:01So Ursula von der Leyen will take centre stage today at a very tense time for the European Union and
18:06also for inter-institutional relations.
18:08Tell us more.
18:11Yes, Maeve, expect a fiery debate when the Commission President joins the hemicycle later this morning.
18:19For two reasons, really.
18:20Because firstly, members of this Parliament have been telling me in recent days that they feel that von der Leyen
18:28has been really overstepping her mandate in response to the conflict in the Middle East.
18:32That she's been wading into foreign policy when she shouldn't, encroaching on the role of the EU foreign policy chief,
18:38Kaya Callas.
18:39I remember that von der Leyen was the compromise candidate back in 2019, but her critics say that since then
18:44she's been using crises like this one to accumulate power and to expand her mandate into a more geopolitical one.
18:51And in fact, von der Leyen did deliver a speech earlier this week where she essentially laid out a new
18:55vision for the way that EU conducts its foreign policy, saying it has to stop being a custodian of the
19:02old world order, she said.
19:03And that it essentially faces two choices, it either clings on, she said, to what used to make it strong,
19:10or it adapts to a more power politics world by pursuing a more interest-based foreign policy.
19:16We've had quite a harsh response from socialist voices.
19:19The European Council President, Antonio Costa, saying yesterday that the EU still needs to be a standard bearer.
19:25Also, the Vice President of the Commission, Teresa Ribeira, another socialist voice, saying yesterday, in response to von der Leyen's
19:33speech,
19:33she said it was not the most adequate manner to express herself, but yes, she is fully committed, of course,
19:41to the international order.
19:43We've also seen a response from the Spanish government saying that the EU has to uphold the rules-based order.
19:48So, Maeve, I think we can expect these tensions to really play out when von der Leyen addresses the hemicycle
19:54this morning.
19:55Indeed. Marit Gwynne-Jones, thank you so much for that live update there from Strasbourg.
19:59But that does bring this edition of Europe Today to an end.
20:03For more news and analysis, do visit euronews.com.
20:05Thank you so much, though, for tuning in.
20:07As always, take care and see you very soon on Euronews.
20:20Euronews.
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