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Tim Duncan is a legendary NBA player and very unusual guy. If he weren't BOTH of those things, perhaps he'd have made more ordinary, more orthodox choices about his draft status in 1995 or 1996. If he did, everything would be different. Everything.
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00:00The 1996 NBA draft class ranks among the best ever.
00:04Tim Duncan, the basketball player, ranks among the best ever.
00:09Duncan was drafted in 1997, so those two facts have nothing to do with each other.
00:13But they could have.
00:14If not for an exceptionally unusual decision,
00:18Tim Duncan would have been in that 1996 draft class,
00:21and everything would be different.
00:24Tim Duncan's decision to stay in college was a big deal.
00:29You know what else is a big deal?
00:30Secret base on Patreon.
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00:34you can see a lot more stuff,
00:36and a lot of stuff much sooner than you would otherwise.
00:38Okay, back to the programming.
00:41Duncan was always an unusual basketball prospect.
00:45Born and raised in the U.S. Virgin Islands,
00:48originally training to become a great swimmer like his Olympian sister,
00:51only to switch focus to hoops after Hurricane Hugo destroyed his local pool.
00:55It took happenstance and word of mouth
00:59for Wake Forest coach Dave Odom to find out about
01:02and then recruit Duncan in 1993.
01:04Odom said if Duncan were from the mainland,
01:07he'd have been the hottest recruit on earth.
01:10Duncan didn't stand out all that much his freshman year at Wake,
01:13the season he was initially supposed to redshirt,
01:15but by his sophomore season of 94-95,
01:18it was clear why coach Odom thought that.
01:21Duncan broke out as one of the best players in the country.
01:24The seven-footer had perfect defensive timing,
01:27rock-solid footwork, and incredible touch around the basket.
01:30And to go with those famous fundamentals,
01:33Duncan had filled out his body,
01:34playing with more strength and aggression than ever before.
01:37Duncan led Wake to their best regular season finish in years
01:41and made them an NCAA tournament one seed.
01:44The Demon Deacons fell in the Sweet 16
01:46against Bryant Big Country Reeves in Oklahoma State,
01:49but Duncan's numbers from that game are obscene.
01:52He outplayed one of the best big men in the country.
01:55Randolph Childress, a senior on that squad,
01:58had once been considered Wake's foremost pro prospect,
02:00but by the 95 offseason,
02:03Duncan had a lot of NBA eyes fixated on him and him alone.
02:07Here's where we need to mention another important part of Duncan's backstory.
02:11Tim's mother, Ione Duncan, died of breast cancer in 1990,
02:16just before Tim's 14th birthday.
02:17Before she passed, Ione made Tim's father, William,
02:21promised that all the Duncan siblings would finish their education.
02:25People knew this about Tim,
02:26but it wasn't really relevant until that sophomore season
02:29when everyone realized that Duncan had huge pro potential.
02:32That realization arrived at a critical juncture in draft history.
02:37Prior to that point,
02:38the NBA draft was typically, at one time explicitly,
02:42a place for college upperclassmen to join the league.
02:45Even decades after Spencer Haywood took the NBA to the Supreme Court,
02:49most draft classes included only a few underclassmen.
02:53Until 95.
02:5495 was a pivotal draft.
02:56A bunch of sophomores declared,
02:59and they would end up becoming the top four picks.
03:02Number five was a high schooler.
03:04He turned out okay.
03:05Among all these hotshot underclassmen entering the draft,
03:09most of them big men,
03:10some NBA officials considered this hotshot underclassmen big man
03:14the best of the best.
03:16That's right.
03:17People thought Duncan could have been the top pick in the 1995 draft,
03:22and that's not even the draft we're here to talk about.
03:24In any event, Duncan did not bite.
03:27He returned to Wake for his junior season.
03:29And that season was even better.
03:32Tim's numbers remained superb,
03:34and the Demon Deacons made it all the way to the Elite Eight.
03:38Tim struggled in Wake's bruising elimination loss to Kentucky,
03:41but NBA people looked past that.
03:44Duncan remained a coveted prospect.
03:46And again, this was not for lack of competition from his peers.
03:50If 95 was the year underclassmen flooded the draft,
03:5396 cemented the trend.
03:55That whole spring,
03:57colleges all over the country were mired in a game of
04:00will he stay or will he go with their best players.
04:02Almost all the big names decided to go.
04:05One after another,
04:07they threw their names into the draft.
04:09Juniors,
04:10sophomores,
04:11freshmen,
04:11quite a few of them would go on to greatness.
04:14And another straight-to-the-pros high schooler turned out pretty well, too.
04:19Hindsight helps emphasize the excellence of that 96 draft class,
04:23but even at the time, you could tell it was stacked.
04:25And then there was Tim.
04:27Duncan's junior season ended with that Kentucky loss on March 23rd.
04:31He had from then until mid-May to mull the same decisions so many others were facing.
04:37Stay or go.
04:39Duncan's version of the choice looked particularly straightforward.
04:42Just like 95,
04:44Duncan remained near the top of most draft boards,
04:46perhaps even number one overall.
04:48Nearly anyone in his shoes would turn pro without a second thought.
04:52But just like 95,
04:54people knew he had a unique set of priorities,
04:57and Duncan made it clear he was not going to make a quick decision.
05:00So even though this seemed like an obvious call to everyone else,
05:04let's run through both sides for Tim's sake.
05:07First, the obvious downsides of staying in college.
05:11In terms of future earnings,
05:13there was basically nothing to gain but so much to lose.
05:17Duncan could play worse,
05:19his team could falter,
05:20he could get hurt,
05:21he could have any number of strange things happen
05:24that might make him not the number one pick in 1997.
05:28To assume that risk and forestall a guaranteed NBA paycheck again,
05:33basically nobody would choose that,
05:35let alone a projected top pick.
05:37So, those are the downsides to staying in college.
05:41The downsides to entering the league?
05:43I mean, maybe you end up on a team that sucks,
05:46but that's always a strong possibility.
05:49Maybe you miss college.
05:50College is fun,
05:51and it's gone forever once you go pro.
05:53There's nothing quite like being a college senior,
05:55and that's even without considering the basketball part.
05:58If Duncan left school after his junior season,
06:01he would lock in his college legacy
06:03as a great player who did not win big.
06:06And perhaps Tim would feel like he had broken a promise.
06:09Everyone knew about Ione Duncan's dying wish.
06:12Granted, Tim's mother didn't foresee
06:15that her son was going to become
06:16the best basketball prospect on the planet.
06:19And Tim could always finish his degree later.
06:21Guys do that all the time.
06:23Nobody would have held it against Duncan.
06:25Oh, I forgot I was supposed to be talking about
06:27the downsides of entering the draft.
06:29There just weren't a lot of downsides.
06:31It was an obvious choice.
06:32But we already knew Tim Duncan was a different kind of dude.
06:36He had made the unorthodox decision regarding the 1995 draft,
06:40and he dragged this 96 decision out until the last second.
06:44When reporters pressed Tim on the issue,
06:47he got a little ornery,
06:48and then stopped speaking to media at all.
06:50So for over a month,
06:52the news cycle was just speculation,
06:55tidbits of context,
06:56and the word of Coach Odom,
06:57who was pondering his own future.
06:59People speculated about Duncan's peculiar motivations.
07:03Maybe he felt less financial pressure than others.
07:06Maybe he felt less pressure to escape the classroom.
07:09People saw that Duncan wasn't just getting a degree
07:12to say he did,
07:13but earnestly wanted to complete
07:15his undergraduate psychology major.
07:17Maybe Tim saw that the prior class of early entrants
07:21were having a less-than-perfect time in the NBA?
07:23I don't know.
07:24This sounds pretty patronizing.
07:26Coach Odom, who eventually signed his own extension,
07:29was the best source of intel for a while.
07:32He felt like Tim was going to stay
07:34because Tim expressed a lot of interest
07:36in the 96-97 Deacons roster.
07:39Why would he care so much if he was going to leave?
07:41But at the same time,
07:43the incentives to leave became clearer.
07:45On the college side of things,
07:47Wake's big man of the future had arrived.
07:49Lauren Woods really didn't want people
07:51calling him the next Tim Duncan.
07:53That's not fair.
07:53But he was clearly set up to be Duncan's replacement.
07:56Some seniors might rather leave
07:59than stick around to mentor their replacement.
08:01On the NBA side,
08:03Duncan's status seemed to be crystallizing.
08:05At one time, they said he might be a top pick.
08:08Then they said maybe he's the top pick,
08:10but only if fellow excellent big man Marcus Camby
08:13stays in college.
08:14And then it was,
08:15okay, Camby's entering the draft,
08:17but everyone seems to prefer Duncan anyway.
08:19By May, you had Wayne Embry,
08:22GM of the Cleveland Cavaliers,
08:24a good team without a high draft pick,
08:26saying,
08:26not only is this dude the number one prospect,
08:29but we would trade vets for the top pick
08:31just to get him.
08:32By that point,
08:33nearly everyone else in question
08:35had made their call,
08:36and nearly all of them had chosen
08:37to enter the draft.
08:39So, what'll it be, Tim?
08:41April 30th.
08:43Still no word.
08:44May 8th.
08:46Even Tim's dad has no idea.
08:48May 10th.
08:49Deadline is just over 24 hours away.
08:52Tim?
08:53Mum.
08:53He's busy taking his final exams.
08:55No word as of press time.
08:58Finally,
08:58at basically the last second,
09:00Tim Duncan made the call,
09:02with minimal fanfare.
09:03He had Wake Forest release his prepared statement,
09:06then spoke to reporters over the phone.
09:08He was staying.
09:10Duncan did not draw out the decision
09:12just to be annoying.
09:13He went back and forth,
09:15but ultimately decided during final exams
09:17that he wanted to take one last crack
09:19at a national title.
09:20He did have an insurance policy
09:22in case an injury hurt his prospects.
09:25And he wanted to finish that degree.
09:28Duncan intended to be a pro basketball player,
09:30but the pros would have to wait.
09:32The aftermath of this decision
09:34is compelling from so many angles.
09:37To start small,
09:38we can look at Duncan's stated reasons for staying.
09:41He wanted to win a national title.
09:43No dice.
09:44Relatively speaking,
09:45it was a down year for the Demon Deacons.
09:47Duncan also wanted to finish his psych degree.
09:51Dice!
09:52Duncan not only graduated,
09:54but co-authored this chapter of a psychology textbook.
09:57The man appears to have literally written the book
09:59on being an asshole.
10:00This is all very, very unusual
10:02for a college basketball superstar.
10:04And yet,
10:05this all panned out for him long-term
10:07as a basketball player,
10:08to say the least.
10:09Duncan did not get hurt,
10:11or worse at basketball,
10:13or whatever,
10:13during his senior season.
10:14And he remained the clear-cut number one choice
10:18in 1997,
10:19when the San Antonio Spurs,
10:21a good team kind of taking a gap year
10:23while their superstar recovered from injury,
10:26won the lottery.
10:27Duncan spent the entirety
10:29of his 19-season career with the Spurs,
10:32formed perhaps the greatest player coach bond
10:34in sports history with Greg Popovich,
10:36and accomplished basically everything
10:38it is possible to accomplish
10:40at an individual and team level.
10:42Things worked out extremely well,
10:44which makes the hypothetical alternatives
10:47so fascinating.
10:49If Duncan had entered the 96 draft,
10:52the Philadelphia 76ers would have had
10:54the first crack at picking him,
10:55and it sounds like they would have taken it.
10:58Without Duncan available,
10:59the Sixers evidently weren't too fond
11:01of Marcus Camby,
11:02and instead used the first pick
11:04on a tiny point guard
11:05who became the face of the franchise
11:07and a future Hall of Famer.
11:09Imagine a world in which
11:10Allen Iverson was not drafted
11:12by the 76ers.
11:14Imagine if he started his career in,
11:16I don't know,
11:16Toronto, Vancouver, Milwaukee,
11:18or if he got paired with Kevin Garnett
11:21in Minnesota instead of Stefan Marbury.
11:23Imagine how that might have rippled
11:25into the rest of the draft.
11:26Maybe Marbury and Ray Allen
11:28wouldn't have been traded for each other.
11:30What about Antoine Walker?
11:31Steve Nash?
11:32Paja?
11:33Would the Lakers have been able
11:34to trade for Kobe?
11:36The hypothetical butterfly effect
11:38of Tim Duncan just acting normal
11:40is wild.
11:41And what about Duncan himself?
11:43Imagine a world in which Duncan
11:45started his career a year earlier
11:47on the Sixers.
11:49Surely he would still be a great player,
11:51but Duncan's legacy isn't just greatness,
11:54it's stability.
11:55Same team, same coach for the long haul.
11:57If he landed in Philly,
11:59who knows?
12:00Do their coach and GM
12:02end up sticking around for two decades?
12:03Do they become a dynasty around Duncan?
12:06I don't know.
12:07Probably not exactly the same way.
12:09Meanwhile, without Duncan
12:11arriving at the perfect time,
12:13Popovich might very well be something
12:15other than the greatest coach
12:16in NBA history.
12:17He and David Robinson
12:19might not have ever won a single title.
12:21What is that world like?
12:23How does this shape the careers
12:25of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili?
12:27What about Kawhi Leonard?
12:29What about Fabrizio Alberto?
12:31What would become of Fabrizio?
12:33We will never know
12:34because on May 11th, 1996,
12:37Tim Duncan did what almost nobody else
12:39on earth would have
12:40and said,
12:41yeah, I know everyone in the NBA
12:43wants to hand me millions of dollars
12:45right now,
12:45but I would rather stay in college,
12:47accept the risk,
12:48and focus on my studies.
12:50A unique dude made a unique decision.
12:53All the ripple effects and hypotheticals
12:55are for the rest of us to worry about.
12:57For Tim,
12:58a big deal decision worked out perfectly.
13:10Thank you so much for watching.
13:12Don't forget to check out
13:13Secret Base's Patreon if you haven't,
13:15and if you're sticking around on YouTube,
13:17you can check out some more stuff
13:18about the ripple effects
13:19of this Tim Duncan decision.
13:21OK, that's it.
13:22Bye.
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