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Short filmTranscript
00:00Lehman Brothers is America's fourth largest investment bank, but with losses totaling billions of dollars, tonight it's close to collapse.
00:07What if World War III didn't start with a declaration, but with a series of moments we've already lived through?
00:13Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we're looking at the events that may have set the stage for a global conflict.
00:18President Putin made it very clear that Crimea would be joining the Russian Federation.
00:252026, U.S. Israel strikes on Iran.
00:28Yes, Sandra, we just got this in literally two minutes ago, but Fox News can confirm that Iran's supreme leader,
00:35the Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead following Israeli strikes against his compound and location earlier today.
00:43In late February 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces carried out coordinated strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran's military
00:51infrastructure, reportedly targeting facilities linked to missile production and nuclear development.
00:56Israeli officials described the operation as necessary to prevent Iran from reaching breakout capability, while American leaders framed it as
01:04deterrence.
01:04The president announcing Khamenei's death in a lengthy social media post.
01:08Just now I want to read through to you what the president is saying.
01:11He says,
01:11Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, is dead.
01:15This is not only justice for the people of Iran, but for all great Americans and those people from many
01:20countries throughout the world that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty thugs.
01:26Tehran condemned the strikes as an act of aggression and signaled retaliation through regional partners.
01:31Oil prices spiked.
01:33U.S. assets in the Gulf shifted posture.
01:35Russia and China issued sharp diplomatic warnings.
01:38There has been a predictably strong verbal response coming from Moscow so far.
01:43We had Vladimir Putin over the weekend condemning the killing of Khamenei as a cynical murder.
01:49The Russian foreign ministry put out a very strong statement, too, accusing the U.S. and Israel of plunging the
01:55Middle East into an abyss of uncontrolled escalation.
01:59Unlike prior proxy confrontations in Syria or Iraq, this was overt state-on-state escalation.
02:05If future historians mark the moment when separate regional flashpoints began to converge,
02:10February 2026 may stand out as the point where long-simmering rivalries fused into direct confrontation between aligned blocks.
02:19Yeah, and David, the president, of course, remember, he has long promised not to drag America into these long-protracted
02:25foreign wars.
02:26But now the president has warned that American lives may be lost in this fight.
02:32We do not know how long this is going to go on, whether this will indeed be a long, protracted,
02:38prolonged war.
02:382023, the Israel-Hamas war expands.
02:42Looking in closer detail at the shocking events of early on Saturday morning, you can see people dancing at the
02:47Nova Music Festival with no inkling of the horror that's about to unfold.
02:51BBC Verify has established that this was taken at sunrise on Saturday, and it's all happening just very, very close
03:01to the border between Israel and Gaza.
03:03On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a coordinated assault from Gaza into southern Israel, killing roughly 1,200 people and
03:11taking hostages.
03:12Israel responded with a large-scale air and ground campaign in Gaza.
03:16Within weeks, Hezbollah exchanged fire across the Lebanese border.
03:21Iranian-backed militias targeted U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria.
03:25The United States deployed carrier strike groups, including the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the eastern Mediterranean.
03:31It's really about deterrence.
03:32So this is a big show of presence, show of support, and frankly, show of strength that the U.S.
03:37military is putting into the region.
03:39The idea is they're showing support for Israel in their fight against Hamas,
03:42but they're also hoping that by sending this massive military presence forward, a carrier strike group, another one on the
03:49way.
03:50In the Red Sea, Houthi forces attacked commercial shipping, prompting multinational naval patrols.
03:55What began as a devastating regional conflict quickly drew in global actors, directly affecting trade routes and energy flows.
04:02While not a formal world war, the episode demonstrated how interconnected modern conflicts had become.
04:09Multiple power centers operated in the same theater, testing deterrence lines and alliance commitments in real time.
04:15All around Israel, the hope is that the U.S. showing that they will willingly send forward so much military
04:22power into the area,
04:23that that will deter anyone who may be considering supporting Hamas in the days and weeks and potentially even months
04:29ahead.
04:30So that could include groups like Lebanese Hezbollah up in Lebanon.
04:33We've been hearing a lot from Matt Bradley, who's there.
04:352022, Russia invades Ukraine.
04:38These are among the darkest hour for Europe since the end of World War II.
04:45Breaking news right now.
04:47Russia has attacked Ukraine, marking the start of a new war in Eastern Europe.
04:51An advisor to Ukraine's president says that about 40 people have been killed so far.
04:56At dawn on February 22, 2022, Russian forces crossed into Ukraine from multiple directions,
05:03following President Vladimir Putin's televised address announcing what he called a special military operation.
05:09Missiles struck Kiev, Kharkiv, and other cities.
05:12Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refused evacuation, reportedly declaring, quote,
05:17I need ammunition, not a ride.
05:20That's the kind of leader you want to see, and we need to provide him the ammunition.
05:24Really, the other thing is, continue to move U.S. troops to the borders of NATO, not into Ukraine,
05:30but we need to show Putin that this alliance stands together.
05:35The invasion triggered sweeping Western sanctions, including freezing Russian central bank assets
05:40and removing key banks from SWIFT.
05:42NATO reinforced its eastern members, and Finland and Sweden moved toward membership.
05:46The war revived French warfare, drone combat, and open nuclear signaling in Europe.
05:52More than any event since 1945, it shattered assumptions that large-scale territorial conquest
05:58on the continent was unthinkable.
06:00Today, Russia began an attack on Ukraine.
06:03Putin began war against Ukraine, against the entire democratic world.
06:07He wants to destroy my country, our country, everything we've been building, everything we are living for.
06:15In March 2020, the pandemic shock.
06:17In the past two weeks, the number of cases of COVID-19 outside China has increased 13-fold,
06:27and the number of affected countries has tripled.
06:32There are now more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries.
06:39In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic.
06:45Borders closed.
06:46Global aviation nearly halted.
06:48Markets plunged.
06:49Supply chains fractured from Wuhan to Rotterdam to Los Angeles.
06:53Accusations escalated between Washington and Beijing over transparency and responsibility.
06:58The phrase, strategic decoupling, entered mainstream policy debate.
07:02There's no question that we are at an all-time low point in Sino-US relations.
07:08I think you have to go all the way back to 1979, when the United States normalized relations
07:13with the People's Republic of China to see things, you know, this stark.
07:18Vaccine distribution became geopolitical leverage, with China and Russia shipping doses abroad,
07:23while Western states prioritized domestic campaigns.
07:26The crisis exposed vulnerabilities in globalization and deepened mistrust among major powers.
07:32Defense planning was quietly adjusted, as governments reassessed dependence on rival supply
07:37chains for critical materials and technology.
07:40While not a shooting war, the pandemic destabilized the economic architecture that had underpinned
07:45relative great power peace.
07:47Historically significant conflicts often follow systemic shock that weakens institutions and
07:53amplify rivalry.
07:54In that sense, 2020 may represent a structural fracture, rather than a health crisis alone.
07:59Despite the efforts taken, though, COVID took a devastating toll.
08:03The CDC says close to 150 million cases of the virus were reported in America since the
08:09start of the pandemic, leading to roughly 1.2 million deaths.
08:14Just in Ohio, nearly 45,000 people lost their lives.
08:21In particular with China, we're going to be doing a Section 301 trade action.
08:28It could be about $60 billion, but that's really just a fraction of what we're talking about.
08:37Beginning in 2018, the United States imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports under President Donald
08:43Trump's first administration, citing unfair trade practices.
08:47Beijing responded in kind.
08:49Technology firms such as Huawei faced sanctions and export restrictions.
08:53Piling the pressure on Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, the U.S. Justice Department on Monday
09:00filed an array of criminal charges against the company.
09:04A 13-count indictment filed in New York accuses Huawei, its chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou,
09:10and two affiliated firms of bank and wire fraud, as well as conspiracy in connection with Iran.
09:17The U.S. Department of Defense formally pivoted toward, quote,
09:20great power competition, signaling a shift away from the counter-terror focus that dominated after 2001.
09:27Military activity intensified in the South China Sea, where China had constructed artificial islands
09:32and militarized outposts. In 2019, then-Vice President Mike Pence declared that the era of
09:38engagement had failed. The rivalry hardened under successive administrations, with semiconductor export
09:44controls and Indo-Pacific security partnerships expanding. While no shots were fired, the cooperative
09:50framework that defined the early 2000s had visibly eroded.
09:54We have right now an $800 billion trade deficit with the world. So think of that. So let's say we
10:02have
10:03500 to 375, but let's say we have 500 with China, but we have 800 total with the world. That
10:14would mean
10:14that China is more than half. 2014, Russia annexes Crimea. Putin has just wrapped up his address. What
10:20did we learn specifically, Guy? Well, this wasn't exactly a speech long on de-escalation talk.
10:27President Putin made it very clear that Crimea would be joining the Russian Federation. He talked about the
10:35fact that Russia felt robbed when Crimea was handed over to the Ukraine.
10:40Following protests in Kyiv that ousted Ukraine's president, unidentified armed personnel seized key sites in
10:46Crimea during February 2014. Within weeks, Russia formally annexed the peninsula after a disputed referendum.
10:53Vladimir Putin defended the move as protecting Russian speakers and correcting historical injustice.
10:59We had a referendum which took place in the Crimea, fully consistent with all norms of international law.
11:09More than 82% of voters took place and more than 96% of those who voted, voted for reunification
11:19with Russia.
11:20Western governments condemned the annexation as illegal and imposed sanctions. NATO began rotating
11:26troops into Eastern Europe under what became known as enhanced forward presence. The episode introduced
11:32hybrid warfare into mainstream discourse, cyber attacks, information operations, and deniable troops
11:38operating without insignia. It was the first forcible redrawing of European borders since World War II.
11:44While combat was limited at the time, the annexation destabilized the regional balance and set the stage
11:50for a far larger invasion eight years later. Many analysts now view 2014 as the opening chapter of a
11:57prolonged European conflict. This speech was very long on history. That really was the justification for the
12:04decision to accept Crimea into the Russian Federation or re-accept the Crimean Peninsula into the Russian Federation.
12:13It's about NATO. It's about the long-term rivalry that exists between Moscow and NATO. And I think that's what
12:20it ultimately boils down to, Betsy.
12:232008, the global financial crisis.
12:25Meanwhile, more grim news for Lehman staff. Administrators said they couldn't guarantee they'll be paid at the end of the
12:32week.
12:32On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, sending shockwaves through global markets.
12:39Stock exchanges plummeted. Governments launched massive bailouts. The crisis triggered the deepest
12:45recession since the 1930s. Beyond economics, the geopolitical consequences were significant.
12:51Western financial institutions appeared fragile, while China's stimulus-driven rebound reinforced
12:56perceptions of its rising power.
12:58It will build schools and subways, power plants and hospitals. That creates jobs for laborers laid off
13:05when factories closed as exports to the U.S. fail.
13:09Populist and nationalist movements gained momentum across Europe and North America,
13:14reshaping domestic politics and alliance cohesion. Trust in globalization and liberal economic consensus
13:20weakened. Defense budgets and foreign policy priorities shifted amid fiscal strain. Major wars often emerge
13:27from periods of economic upheaval that unsettle established power hierarchies. In retrospect,
13:33the crash of 2008 may be remembered as the moment America's dominance stopped looking permanent.
13:38I was very happy in Lehman. I like this company and I'm just disappointed for everybody.
13:45I think it was a great company. I'm just sad.
13:502001. The September 11th attacks. On September 11th, 2001, coordinated attacks by Al Qaeda destroyed the
13:58World Trade Center towers in New York and struck the Pentagon, killing nearly 3,000 people. Within weeks,
14:04the United States launched Operation Enduring Freedom Freedom in Afghanistan. On my orders,
14:09the United States military has begun strikes against Al Qaeda terrorist training camps and military
14:15installations of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. These carefully targeted actions are designed to
14:22disrupt the use of Afghanistan as a terrorist base of operations and to attack the military capability of
14:30the Taliban regime. In 2003, it invaded Iraq, reshaping the Middle East's power balance. NATO invoked Article 5
14:37for the first time. The text states in part that an armed attack against a NATO member in Europe or
14:42North
14:42America shall be considered an armed attack against them all. The definition of an armed attack has
14:49evolved since the treaty was signed in 1949. NATO members decide what qualifies as an armed attack.
14:55The war on terror expanded across continents, from drone campaigns to intelligence-sharing networks.
15:01Surveillance laws broadened. Iran's regional influence grew following the collapse of Saddam Hussein's
15:07regime. While this era did not resemble a traditional multi-power world war, it placed the United States
15:13on a sustained war footing and altered alliance structures globally. Some scholars argue that the
15:18destabilization unleashed after 2001 laid groundwork for later confrontations. If historians seek the
15:25earliest rupture of the 21st century order, they may begin their narrative here.
15:29The search is underway for those who are behind these evil acts. I've directed the full resources
15:35of our intelligence and law enforcement communities to find those responsible and to bring them to
15:41justice. We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who
15:49harbor them. What do you think? Are we gearing up for a major global conflict? Be sure to let us
15:53know in the
15:54comments.
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