00:00Can we talk about succession and what that looks like in Iran? Help us understand a little what we should
00:05be watching for here.
00:06We hear lots about resilience in succession and resilience in the regime in Iran,
00:11but then we hear President Trump wanting to insert himself into the conversation about succession.
00:15Who is in charge of succession now, by your estimation?
00:19So we've got two things here. We've got the visible state, where everyone is paying attention to,
00:24but actually behind that we have an invisible state, a hidden power structure.
00:27Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was eliminated, the Supreme Leader,
00:31he had created this hidden power structure, the Office of Supreme Leader.
00:34It wasn't really an office. It was an extensive apparatus,
00:37an apparatus that enabled him to, A, make sure that he has eyes and ears all over the regime's elites,
00:43but, B, more importantly, ensure that should he be eliminated,
00:48the Office of Supreme Leader, the bait, made up of as many as 44,000 affiliates,
00:54can ensure continuity rather than confusion.
00:58So the bait, his former office, the Office of Supreme Leader, alongside the IRGC,
01:04that's the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the terror army of the regime,
01:08behind the scenes, they are ensuring that there's no power vacuum,
01:12and they're the two bodies, really, deciding, alongside with the clergy as well, of course,
01:17deciding who's going to succeed.
01:19In that Office of Supreme Leader, crucially, Mosh Tavar Khamenei,
01:24the former Supreme Leader's son, second eldest son,
01:27he's operated as a bit of a mini Supreme Leader in that structure already.
01:31He is tipped to succeed his father now.
01:35OK, so for what you've said there, that sounds like the process,
01:38as the Iranians would like to see it unfold.
01:43Are there other players that we need to be aware of who sit outside the regime,
01:47whether that's the theocratic regime or maybe parts of the secular state,
01:51any other leaders that we need to be aware of that the West might be interested
01:54in giving more power, allowing more power to?
01:57Well, there's no secular states.
01:59This is a totalitarian Islamist dictatorship.
02:02You don't have any...
02:04Yes, there's the theocracy, but then there are elements that look from the outside
02:06like, you know, presidencies...
02:08And that's an incorrect... That's an incorrect external observation.
02:11This is an Islamist regime.
02:12To be able to even stand a chance of being a candidate,
02:16even at council level, you have to be an Islamist.
02:19You get checked. There are extensive vetting processes.
02:22You have to pledge full commitment, practical commitment,
02:25to absolute velayat afari.
02:27Absolute velayat afari means absolute rule by the Supreme.
02:31The ordinary Iranians cannot participate in the political process.
02:34You have to not only be a religious Iranian, a religious conserved Iranian,
02:38but you have to prove that you are an Islamist.
02:41You undergo extensive ideological indoctrination.
02:44So there's no...
02:44You're referring to the visible state, the presidency, the conventional apparatus,
02:49but even in that conventional apparatus, they are all Islamists.
02:53So if we take a step back, though, the most important in the long term here,
02:58in the short term, the most important player that we haven't mentioned
03:01are the Iranian people. Let's not forget, last month,
03:05they took to the streets in their millions.
03:08They have been taken to the streets, by the way, continuously since 2017.
03:12The protests that we saw, they weren't a flash-in-the-pan moment.
03:16This has been reoccurring.
03:17The message of the Iranian people has been clear.
03:19They want regime change.
03:20They no longer want to live under this dictatorship.
03:23Last month, they took to the streets,
03:25and this regime massacred as many as 40,000 unarmed civilians.
03:30And that's why the response has been, from the Iranian people,
03:33positive to the strikes that are ongoing.
03:36What is the mechanism for the Iranian people taking charge, then,
03:41and avoiding a Libyan scenario where you get a civil war?
03:46First of all, Iran's very different to Libya.
03:49Libya is a very tribal, was a tribal, and is a tribal society.
03:55Iran's community, Iran's society, the different ethnicities
03:58that have been living together, side by side,
04:02have been living together for 2,500 years.
04:06So it's not a new nation.
04:07Iran is one of the oldest civilizations in the world.
04:11For the Iranian people to be able to take control,
04:14reclaim their country, this is what they believe.
04:17They want to reclaim their country.
04:19Ultimately, the suppressive apparatus of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard,
04:23called the IRGC,
04:24is an extensive apparatus that pervades every level of society.
04:29That needs to be dismantled.
04:31Right now, in the phase one of this military operation,
04:33the US, the Israelis, are focused on
04:36decapitating the offensive and defensive capabilities of their regime.
04:40But we are starting to see them going after,
04:43dismantling this suppressive architecture.
04:46Well, Israel's trying to bring in the Kurdish forces.
04:49How risky would that strategy be?
04:52I think we need to take a step back, first of all,
04:55and say, for Iranians, of all ethnicities,
04:59are united in toppling the Islamic regime.
05:03That's been consistent.
05:04We saw that in the protests.
05:06There was no sectarian or ethnic tension.
05:09Iranians are united.
05:11They've lived together.
05:11These different ethnic groups have lived together.
05:14Iranian nationalism, this pluralistic Iranian nationalism,
05:18that involves Persians, it involves Kurds,
05:21it involves Iranian laws, it involves the Azeris.
05:24That's the most powerful weapon against this Islamist regime.
05:29Anything, any move that is perceived by the Iranian people
05:34that Iran's territorial sovereignty could be at risk,
05:38that risks fracturing this unity and actually emboldening the regime.
05:42So if there is a strategy whereby,
05:45and we don't know yet, these aren't confirmed reports,
05:47the US has actually denied this,
05:48but if these reports are accurate,
05:51I think it needs to be equipped with a very, very clear communication strategy
05:56that says and speaks to the Iranian people and says,
05:58this is merely a tactic to draw the IRGC to the battlefield
06:04so that we can enable the Iranian people
06:06to take to the streets, provide them with this space.
06:09This isn't an attempt to divide Iran
06:13because that is the Iranian people's red line
06:15and that would embolden this regime.
06:18that it's not against the stain.
06:18That's exactly why it has a little burden
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