00:00The impact of this war on India will be way more than energy prices.
00:03Oil trade through the Strait of Hermos is at a standstill and India has very little of its own crew.
00:09But beyond the fuel pump, an enduring conflict could threaten food security too.
00:13Qatar's liquefied natural gas, whose production has come to a temporary halt,
00:17is required as a feedstock in domestic fertilizer plants.
00:20That's not to mention the 9 million Indians who work in the Persian Gulf,
00:24providing critical reputances back home.
00:26Dubai and Abu Dhabi are also gateways to Middle Eastern Africa for Indian manufacturers
00:30and wealth hubs for rich Indians.
00:33The region's sovereign wealth funds are a source of investment into India.
00:37India's biggest vulnerability, however, is its exchange rate.
00:39The rupee, the worst-performing Asian currency, has stumbled 9% against the dollar over the past two years.
00:45This has happened even with the greenback losing ground elsewhere.
00:49While weak domestic demand and soft commodity prices have kept inflation in check,
00:54the calm may end abruptly.
00:55Then there's gold.
00:56Indian households have pivoted to the precious metal as a safe haven,
01:00but with air cargo from Dubai affected, a shortage could be looming.
01:04The government owes the public $22 billion against gold bonds.
01:09The higher the metal's price, the bigger will be its fiscal burden.
01:13Access to alternative energy sources is limited.
01:16Modi has agreed to a one-sided trade deal with Washington to shun Russia crude.
01:20Wriggling out of that risks President Trump's wrath.
01:23While the Supreme Court has taken away some of his tariff powers,
01:27the U.S. President still retains substantial ammunition to bring back high taxes on imports
01:32under other laws.
01:34Unlike China, which holds bargaining chips like rare-earth magnets, India lacks leverage.
01:39Washington should either grant waivers for Russian oil imports
01:43or provide access to U.S. strategic reserves at preferential prices.
01:47Other than that, it's just hopes and prayers for a quick end to the conflict.
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