00:00The war between U.S., Israel and Iran is escalating.
00:03Israel has now launched fresh attacks targeting the heart of Tehran.
00:08Now this comes a day after a joint U.S.-Israeli attack killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
00:38Columns of smoke were seen rising over the capital following the latest wave of attacks.
01:00The Israeli Defense Forces say around 40 Iranian commanders, including Khamenei, were eliminated on Saturday in the opening strikes.
01:07Israel military claims it has destroyed half of Iran's missile stockpiles.
01:11According to the IDF, dozens of Israeli fighter jets hit more than 30 targets across western and central Iran,
01:18including missile launchers, air defense systems and military command centers.
01:30Theiviik The
01:32Its
01:32I
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02:02Iranian state television reports the armed forces chief of staff has been killed in the strikes
02:07senior officials say a temporary leadership council is being established
02:11meanwhile the US military has released footage showing fighter jets missile launches
02:16and operations from the USS Gerald R. Ford as part of Operation Epic Fury. President Donald
02:22Trump said the strikes on Saturday were aimed at destroying Iran's missile capabilities and
02:27naval assets. Tensions are escalating along with fears that this war would spark a wider regional
02:34conflict. Now for more on this we are joined by Dr. Zaidan Alkinani who is a Middle East politics
02:40lecturer at Georgetown University in Qatar and also a Middle East political analyst. Joining us
02:46live from Qatar. Dr. Alkinani with Israel now claiming to have struck in the heart of Tehran
02:50while Iran resumes airstrikes on Gulf states. How far do you think the two sides will go?
02:57It really depends on the long-term objective or even the short-term objective of both Israel and
03:02the United States. It seems like so far the plans is an airstrike, a military airstrike and we all
03:09know that a military airstrike with no ground invasion is never enough to conduct a significant
03:17or a drastic change such a regime change particularly in a mid-tier power regional power
03:24military with significant military capabilities such as the Islamic Republic of Iran. If we were to divide
03:33the potential two objectives that may be on the table today between the United States and Israel
03:41towards its military actions against Iran it either may be that there would be an ultimate goal for a
03:48potential regime change relying on the possibility of a strong upheaval or uprising in response to a
03:57potential hope of the opposition within the country given that there might be a decreasing
04:01influence and power of the power structures within the state institutions of the Iranian government
04:07or it may be to push the Iranian regime for further economic crises push it to more pressures in order
04:16to get from it more conditions to be followed by it during the negotiations because it came also as a
04:24surprise given that there were indicators that Iran was willing to accept a lot of the conditions and
04:32many of the conditions that were provided by the United States and Israel during the talks according to many
04:37observers who had direct access to many of the associates that were facilitating the talks regionally and
04:45internationally but it seems like they're trying to pressure the Iranian regime as much as possible in order to make
04:52the
04:53talks following the directions and the hopes of Israel and the United States but what we're noticing now is that
05:01there is a massive overarching regional escalations you have the GCC neighbors of Iran also fallen victims to
05:13this military escalation that is happening in the region if this war is to end and the Iranian regime in
05:22one way or
05:22another survives these military strikes and the Islamic regime remains in today's Iran following the
05:31assassination of Khamenei the relationships of Tehran with its GCC neighbors will be very different from how it were prior
05:40to this war
05:41it seems like that Iran has forgotten that many of those GCC neighbors play the vital role in advocating for
05:48the U.S.
05:49or advocating to the United States to not conduct a significant military operation in Iran that would
05:56eventually lead to the regional consequences that we're witnessing today right speaking on the lines of
06:01military capabilities suicide drones tomahawks and other advanced weapons powering the U.S. and Israel
06:07struck Iran what does this level of firepower say about the future of warfare in the region
06:12it says a lot about the future of warfare in the region one cannot forget that Iran
06:18Iran's military capabilities was not only limited to its technological advancement although the
06:25technological advancement of the Israeli armed forces can be seen much more advanced when it
06:31comes to the the U.S. military capabilities what we are talking and recognizing a technological and an armament
06:38capability at a global scale however this is an attack on a country in its own neighborhood within
06:45its own premises which means that the rules of law the rules of of war excuse me the rules of
06:52war would
06:53be in favor of the Iranian strategic mindset and in addition to the military capabilities where we've
07:00noticed that Iran is no longer relying as much as they used to in previous years on the ballistic missiles
07:06and and conducting and using other weapons that seems to be uh prepared for a potential war that is
07:12happening in early 2026 and as we're witnessing today one can also not forget that Iran heavily relies on
07:19its regional proxy network most notably in countries such as Iraq and Lebanon previously in Syria but given the
07:29major decreasing influence of a lot of these proxy affiliates to the Islamic Republic particularly following the
07:36major attacks and the targeted uh focus towards them following the October 7 2023 political developments
07:44that have been taking place in the region since then it seems like Iran is in the score on its
07:48own
07:50regional tensions continue to escalate after Khamenei's death in the latest pro-Iran protesters tried to
07:55storm U.S. embassy in Pakistan and Iraq how is this regional war now spiraling over into the street
08:00level mobilization if i may say and what does that mean for west Asia well one cannot forget that the
08:07Islamic Republic of Iran represents or is associated with a large portion of Shia Muslims around the world
08:14but also at the same time many ordinary Shia Muslims whether in Pakistan or Iran or in Lebanon or in
08:20Syria or
08:20in Yemen also do not uh associate themselves with the concept of wilayat al-faqih in Iran uh many of
08:28them believe
08:29that the wilayat al-faqih of Iran is an Iranian uh political tactic uh to exploit the hearts and minds
08:37of Shia communities across the Islamic world in attempt um to create a political rhetoric and mobilize masses
08:45in favor of Iran's uh regional expansionist agendas and attempts uh for the past few decades since the
08:53Islamic revolution in 1979 however if we were to focus on the fact that um the Islamic Republic of Iran
09:01and its former supreme leader did enjoy a significant uh following and popularity across the region as
09:09we're witnessing now um whether it's the the attacks against the U.S. embassy the marches against the U.S.
09:16premises both in Pakistan and Iraq some of the protests that have been taking place in
09:21Lebanon um the Islamic Republic of Iran has been able to conduct a as we previously mentioned a
09:27regionally proxy uh institutional culture social and sectarian uh armed uh wings and political wings
09:36and cultural wings for the past four decades uh diminishing uh the the the Islamic Republic of Iran
09:44Iran as a regime and as a regional power uh will not uh be completed overnight due to the assassination
09:51of its supreme leader um the assassination of Khamenei is definitely a a very uh drastic and significant
09:59development it will definitely uh conduct uh surprises that we may not have noticed or expected for it to
10:08happen in such a fast-paced way with the frequency of developments that have noticed in general since
10:13october 7 uh 2023 uh but we will be noticing as as many assumed that uh it will take it'll
10:22take a while
10:23for a regime that has been able to build itself for four decades to be eliminated or even weakened
10:30igious studies as a candidate khamenei has now named alih al-raza arafi a long-time confidante of
10:36khamene to its leadership council how much continuity does this signal in iran's strategic posture is a
10:42roughy seen as a potential next supreme leader well they have a they have a process where if a supreme
10:49leader is to uh be gone there will be an alternative um with the council of experts with the guardian
10:56council
10:57There is an entire constitutional process that ensures such a transition of power.
11:05They have been prepared for this day since the early stages of developing the current political and religious system.
11:14But one cannot deny that there are certain political developments that can signify or reflect the beginning of an end
11:26of a current political power or a system.
11:29Just as we noticed with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, who is the commander of the Quds Force of the
11:35Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
11:37who was assassinated in a U.S. airstrike in January 2020 in Iraq.
11:42His successor was never able to fill his shoes.
11:47Similarly to Hassan Nasrallah, the former chairman of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
11:52Also, following his assassination, we never noticed his successor filling his shoes.
11:58There is an expectation that the successor following Qasem Soleimani will also not be able to fill his shoes,
12:06given that the assassination of those leaders presented a major downfall and a major fall and a break to these
12:15political systems,
12:16organizations or the regime in Iran's case today.
12:20Right. And finally, before I let you go, in terms of relationships,
12:24Putin and North Korea have condemned the killing of Khamenei while Australia has refused to mourn.
12:28How does the split in global reactions reflect the border geopolitical fault?
12:35Well, it seems like in the eyes of many international actors that the United States and Israel have,
12:41in one way or another, conducted a unilateral decision with their very small alliance
12:47in making such significant strategic decisions in the region.
12:54It goes against many of the recommendations and the advisers and the efforts by many European allies and international allies,
13:02especially as well as Russia and China,
13:04who have been trying to advocate for continued talks, continued reconciliations,
13:12and also in one way or another, to limit the possibilities of the United States conducting another Iraq example
13:22or another Afghanistan example.
13:24But as we previously mentioned,
13:26the frequency of the developments that have been taking place since October 7, 2023,
13:34has allowed us to witness major political developments
13:37in such a short pace of time that we may have not witnessed or even expected to witness
13:45within the time frame of 20 years.
13:49Dr. Zayn al-Khanani, thank you for sharing your insights with First Post,
13:52and I hope you and your family are safe.
13:57Power doesn't end quietly.
14:00Some deaths are not accidents.
14:03They are messages.
14:04A gunshot.
14:07A crowd.
14:09A country frozen.
14:11The killer disappears.
14:13The questions don't.
14:15This is not just about who died.
14:18It's about what followed.
14:20Governments fell.
14:22Armies moved.
14:24History rewrote itself.
14:26Five leaders.
14:28Five moments.
14:30One pattern.
14:32The assassination.
14:34One pattern.
14:37One pattern.
14:38One pattern.
14:40One pattern.
14:41One pattern.
14:42One pattern.
14:43One pattern.
14:44One pattern.
14:45One pattern.
14:45One pattern.
14:46One pattern.
14:46One pattern.
14:46One pattern.
14:54You
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