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Short filmTranscript
00:00On February 28, Israel and the US launched a joint military operation against Iran.
00:05And in the attack, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his compound in
00:10Tehran.
00:11Not only that, Israel says that its strikes also took out seven senior defense and intelligence
00:16officials and targeted 30 top military and civilian leaders.
00:20This wasn't just an assassination, this was a full decapitation of Iran's leadership.
00:25Iran retaliated almost immediately, launching missiles and drones at Israel and US military
00:31bases across the Gulf in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
00:36Then things escalated further.
00:38Iran's Navy broadcast on emergency radio channels that the Strait of Hormuz was banned to all
00:43commercial traffic.
00:44As a result, about 150 ships, including oil tankers, were stored at sea.
00:49And there were also attacks on commercial ships where a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz
00:55Because of all this hoo-ha, as of Monday morning, oil is already up 12%.
00:59Gold has surged above $5,296 per ounce, and SME 500 futures are down by 0.5%.
01:07In this video, I'm going to break down why this attack happened, what the historical data
01:11says about your investments during times like this, what could happen next, and what I'm
01:15personally doing with my portfolio.
01:17But first, to understand what might happen next, we need to understand why this attack happened
01:22in the first place.
01:23Now, this attack didn't come out of nowhere.
01:26It had been brewing in the background for years.
01:29According to the US and Israel, the main reason was Iran's nuclear program.
01:33Iran had been enriching uranium to 60% purity, which is far beyond the 3.67% limits set by
01:40the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump pulled out of back in 2018.
01:44On top of that, the IAEA, which is the UN's nuclear watchdog, also found hidden stockpiles
01:50of highly enriched uranium in an undisclosed underground facility.
01:54In other words, Iran had been concealing nuclear progress even from the inspectors who were
01:59supposed to be monitoring them.
02:01Because of all this, the US presented Iran with three core demands.
02:05Permanently end all uranium enrichment, accept strict limits on ballistic missiles, and completely
02:10hot supports for proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
02:14And as you might expect, Iran rejected all three.
02:17Then came the diplomacy.
02:19On February 19, Trump held the inaugural meeting of his Board of Peace at the US Institute of
02:25Peace, where he gave Iran a 10-day ultimatum to make a deal or face consequences.
02:30A week later on February 26, the US and Iran held a third round of indirect talks in Geneva.
02:36The talks ended without a deal, but both sides had actually identified the main elements of
02:41a potential agreement and planned a follow-up technical discussion in Vienna.
02:46Hard work.
02:46The follow-up talks never happened.
02:48Just two days later, Operation Epic Fury was launched, and the guy who created the Board
02:53of Peace turned it into the Board of Peace.
02:56The White House released an 8-minute video statement where he made it very clear that
03:00the goal was not just to destroy Iran's nuclear program.
03:03The goal was regime change.
03:05And the timing wasn't a coincidence either.
03:08Iran was at its weakest point in decades.
03:10Their economy was in crisis with inflation above 40%.
03:14There were nationwide protests in January 2026, and their military was still degraded from
03:19the June 2025 war with Israel.
03:21It was a strategic window that wouldn't stay open forever.
03:24So, does this mean that the market will jibout boom when it opens?
03:28To answer that, we can look at some geopolitical events that has happened in the past, and how
03:33they have affected the SME500.
03:35But before that, speaking of investing through uncertainty, it has been over one year since
03:40I started doing weekly dollar cost averaging through the Moomoo regular savings plan.
03:45And so far, I'm up by about 10%.
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03:52For example, you can head over to the markets tab, go into US, then ETFs, and you'll be
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04:06holdings, and so on.
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04:57below.
04:58On day one, the median return is only negative 0.1% and is positive 50% of the time,
05:04which
05:05is basically a coin flip.
05:06This is really surprising when you consider that these events aren't minor events.
05:11We are talking about full-scale investments, oil embargoes, and the assassination of a
05:16top military commander.
05:17And yet, on average, the market barely moves on day one.
05:21And here's where it gets even more interesting.
05:23By the first week, the market is already positive 64% of the time with a median of positive 0
05:29.6%.
05:30By 6 months, it is also positive 64% of the time with a median of 4.9%.
05:36And at 12 months, the S&P 500 is positive 77% of the time with a median return of
05:4313.6%.
05:44In fact, there were only 3 times where the S&P 500 was still negative at 12 months.
05:50The first was the 1973 Arab oil embargo, where the market dropped by 35.4%.
05:55But that wasn't just a war.
05:58OPEC cut off oil supply to the entire western world.
06:01Prices quadrupled from $2.90 to $11.65 per barrel.
06:05And the global economy went into full stepflation.
06:08The second was 9-11, where the market was down 20% at 12 months.
06:13But 9-11 happened right in the middle of the dot-com recession.
06:16The market was already falling before the attacks.
06:19And the third was the Russian-Ukraine war in 2022, where the market was down by 6% after
06:25a year.
06:25But again, that coincided with global inflation hitting 40-year highs and central banks aggressively
06:31hiking interest rates.
06:32What this tells us is that geopolitical events by themselves don't cause prolonged market
06:37crashes.
06:37The only times they did was when the event hit during or triggered a broader economic crisis.
06:42So, the question here isn't so much whether, is there a war?
06:46But rather, the real question is, will this war cause something bigger, like a sustained
06:51oil crisis or a global inflation?
06:53And that brings us to the single biggest risk factor right now.
06:56If there is one thing that could turn this from a temporary market deep into a real economic
07:01problem, it is the Straits of Hormuz.
07:04For those who do not know, the Straits of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.
07:09About 20 million barrels of oil pass through it every single day.
07:12That's roughly 31% of all sea-born crude oil in the world.
07:16And about 20% of global LNG exports.
07:19Or to put it simply, if the Straits shuts down, the world's spare oil capacity would
07:24get locked in.
07:25You simply can't just reroute that oil as there's simply no alternative roads for most
07:30of it.
07:30And sure enough, Iran declared the Straits closed on February 28th.
07:34And that has caused about 150 ships to be stored, with the traffic dropping by 75%.
07:39Now, Iran has been threatening to close the Straits for decades.
07:43But here's the thing, they have never actually fully closed it.
07:46Not even during the Iran-Iraq Tangle War from 1984 to 1988, when Iran was actively attacking
07:53commercial ships in the Straits for 4 years' Straits.
07:55Even then, oil still flowed.
07:57And oil prices actually declined over that period.
08:00And what's happening right now is following a similar pattern.
08:04Within 24 hours, Iran walked it back.
08:06And Iranian general announced that the Straits was open again.
08:09Though he warned that US warships could still be attacked.
08:13So why didn't Iran keep the Straits closed?
08:15A few reasons.
08:16First, the US is actively destroying Iran's Navy.
08:19Nine warships have already been sunk.
08:22Iran simply doesn't have the naval power to sustain a blockade against the US fleet.
08:26Second, and this one is really important.
08:28OPEC just agreed to raise oil production by 260,000 barrels per day despite the war.
08:35They are not cutting supply.
08:36They are not showing solidarity with Iran.
08:38So if the oil producers themselves, the people with the best information about supply risk
08:43are increasing the output, that tells you something.
08:46And third, Iran itself only produces about 4% of global oil supply.
08:51Compare that to the 1973 oil embargo, where the entire OPEC cartel coordinated an embargo together.
08:57That was multiple countries acting in unison.
09:00But today, Iran is just one country acting alone with a weakened military against the world's largest Navy.
09:07Now, that doesn't mean the risk is zero.
09:09Even a partial disruption has consequences.
09:11For example, oil analyst Andy Lippo projects a 7% or more increase in oil prices depending on how far
09:18this escalates.
09:19Barclays is even more aggressive, raising their oil price forecast from $80 to $100 per barrel overnight after the strikes.
09:27If that happens, then things could get ugly fast.
09:30For example, in 1973, oil prices quadrupled by over 300% and US inflation surged from 3.4% to
09:3712.3%.
09:38Then in 1979, after the Iranian revolution, oil more than doubled and US inflation hit 14.8%.
09:46And most recently in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil surged over 50% and US inflation hit 9.1%,
09:54the highest in 40 years.
09:56In all three cases, central banks were forced to aggressively hike interest rates.
10:01And that's the scenario where things could start looking really bad for the markets.
10:05Thankfully, while oil has gone up by 12% so far, it is still at $75.
10:09That's nowhere near the $100 level where things start to break.
10:14The straight is technically open, OPEC is raising output, and the US is systematically destroying Iran's ability to keep the
10:20straight disrupted.
10:21So, which way will this go?
10:23That brings us to the two possible scenarios.
10:26Scenario 1, the US has estimated that the entire operation would take about 4 weeks.
10:31But so far, things seem to be progressing faster than expected.
10:34The supreme leader is already dead.
10:36Seven senior defense and intelligence officials have been taken out.
10:40Iran's navy is being destroyed.
10:42And the Strait of Hummus, which was the biggest risk, was reopened within 24 hours.
10:46If things continue at this pace, oil might even eventually settle back to the $75 to $80 range.
10:53If that's the case, this becomes yet another stolen money 2020.
10:57A scare that passes and the people who panic so end up missing the recovery.
11:02Then comes scenario 2.
11:03This is where this operation turns into yet another drawn-out military campaign.
11:08In this scenario, the Strait of Hummus gets disrupted again.
11:11Oil pushes above $100 and suddenly, you are looking at a very different picture.
11:16Higher oil means higher inflation.
11:18Higher inflation means central banks pausing or even reversing rate cuts.
11:22And as we have just saw from the historical data, that's the asset combination that caused
11:27the three worst outcomes.
11:28On top of that, Iran's proxy network could also widen this conflict.
11:32Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq.
11:36If those groups escalates their attacks on shipping lanes or US bases, the market uncertainty
11:41would get a lot worse.
11:42So which scenario is more likely?
11:44Right now, the signals lean towards scenario 1.
11:47OPEC is raising output, not cutting it.
11:50Iran has already walked back the straight closure within 24 hours.
11:53And even crypto, which typically reacts faster than traditional markets, has already started
11:58recurring.
11:59Which suggests that traders are betting on a shorter conflict.
12:03However, all this is still a big if.
12:05Because the one thing that makes this difference from past conflicts is the regime change agenda.
12:10This isn't just a targeted strike like Soleimani, where you take out one guy and go home.
12:15This is an attempt to topple the governments.
12:18And if anything, history tells us that toppling governments typically takes a lot longer than
12:22destroying military targets.
12:24For example, the US spends 8 years in Iraq after Saddam, and over 20 years in Afghanistan
12:30after the Taliban.
12:31So even if the military campaign here wraps up in weeks, the political aftermath can drag
12:36on for years.
12:37Now, does that mean the global economy is in trouble?
12:40Not necessarily.
12:41Even though Iraq and Afghanistan were in long wars, they didn't cause global recessions on
12:46their own.
12:46On top of that, the key difference is that neither Iraq nor Afghanistan sets next to the world's
12:52most important oil choke point.
12:53So, the risk isn't really about the war itself.
12:56But rather, it's about whether the war keeps oil elevated long enough to trigger the kind
13:01of inflation spiral that we saw in 1973, 1979, and 2022.
13:05So, after looking at all of this, what am I personally doing?
13:09Honestly, nothing.
13:10The historical data is pretty clear.
13:12In 77% of cases, the SME 500 was positive 12 months after a major dual political event,
13:19with a median return of 13.6%.
13:21The only times it wasn't were when the event triggered a broader economic crisis.
13:26And right now, we are not there yet.
13:29So, for me, the plan is simple.
13:30I'm not selling anything.
13:32I'm not panic buying different stocks, oil stocks, or commodities.
13:35I'm sticking with my regular investment schedule and dollar cost averaging as usual.
13:40That said, I'm not ignoring the risk either.
13:43There are a few things I'm watching closely.
13:45First, oil prices.
13:46If oil stays below $80 to $85, I think we are fine.
13:50If it starts pushing toward $100 and stays there, that's when I will start getting more cautious.
13:56Because that's when it might start feeding into inflation.
13:59Second, the Strait of Homeless.
14:00If traffic goes back to normal in the next few weeks, that's a strong signal that scenario
14:05one is playing out.
14:06But if there are more tanker attacks or another closure attempt, that changes the picture.
14:12And third, where the OPEC changes costs.
14:14Right now, they are raising output, which is bullish.
14:17If they suddenly start cutting, that would be a huge red flag.
14:21The bottom line is this.
14:22If you have a long-term investment horizon, history says that the worst thing that you
14:26can do right now is panic sell.
14:28While that doesn't mean that nothing bad can happen, it does mean that the odds are in
14:32your favor if you stay the course.
14:34But what do you think?
14:36Are you holding, buying the dip, or moving the cash?
14:38Drop a comment down below.
14:40Anyway, that's all for this video.
14:41Hope you found it useful.
14:42Like, share, and subscribe as I'll be posting new videos every week.
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