00:00If you look at the overall situation, I mean, all these countries in the Gulf have been targeted, including Bahrain
00:07and Qatar and United Arab Emirates and even Oman.
00:11But at the same time, the response from these countries have been, you know, so far that they maintain restraint.
00:17But Iran wants them to be involved to attack Iran so that the whole thing and the war can escalate
00:23and cover the entire region.
00:25But so far we have seen that, you know, some kind of restraint.
00:28We have also seen probably also the fact that they have got limited military capabilities when it comes to UAE
00:34or Oman and so on and so forth.
00:36Saudi Arabia, though, has been targeted but has maintained the restraint.
00:40Though if, however, Iran makes any serious attempt to close the state of Hormuz, the state of Hormuz is the,
00:50in a way, a choke point,
00:53which basically, you know, 20% of global oil trade goes or passes through a state of Hormuz, both exports
01:01and imports.
01:02And 20% of LNG also passes through that area.
01:07So far, what they have done, Iranians, they have radio messages to all oil tankers in that region that don't
01:14try to cross the state of Hormuz, the choke point.
01:17If you did that, then they will attack.
01:21But the result is that, you know, all oil tankers north of state Hormuz, they are anchored there.
01:27And those who are going on the way to collect oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Kuwait and Abu Dhabi,
01:34they basically have stopped there.
01:35So no movement at the moment.
01:37However, you know, if there is any serious attempt by Iran to target state of Hormuz or to mine it
01:45or to close it,
01:45that would basically, you know, attract response from the United States.
01:51And I suspect response even from Saudi Arabia.
01:54Saudi Arabia is not going to accept it because for them, it's all bread and butter, everything.
01:59So therefore, but so far, Iran has been careful not to do it.
02:03So I think, you know, I'm worried about the ways things are going.
02:07But my own sense is that probably within the next seven to eight days or nine days, things will begin
02:13to stabilize.
02:15Probably the United States and Israel are going to say, all right, we have achieved what we have set out
02:19to achieve.
02:19And they will call for peace or negotiations and so on and so forth.
02:24That's a very, you know, and my, if you look at the oil sector as a whole,
02:29since oil is a very important commodity for the global economy,
02:33and since India is so heavily dependent on oil from, you know, that region,
02:3960% of crude oil that we purchase comes from the Persian Gulf area.
02:43Therefore, state of hormones becomes very, very important for us.
02:47However, my own sense is that, you know, price of oil may go up, crude oil may go up,
02:52maybe $80 per barrel, maybe $85 per barrel, you know, for short term,
02:57maybe eight days, nine days, six days or 10 days and so and so forth.
03:01But I don't think we really need to worry too much about at this stage.
03:05The two reasons for that.
03:06Number one is I think they have done the geopolitical math that how long the operation,
03:12the military operation by the United States and Israel is going to last.
03:15And my own sense is not going to be more than 10 days because they have all already more or
03:20less
03:21a big part of what they have set out to achieve.
03:23They've already achieved like the killing the top leadership, etc.
03:25So, therefore, I'm not too worried about oil price at this stage.
03:31What happens tomorrow, that's different.
03:33But as I look at the horizon today, I think oil prices will definitely go up.
03:38But at the same time, after a period of time, maybe 10 days, 15 days,
03:42they will start actually going back to the normal where they should be in terms of demand
03:47and supply fundamentals.
03:49However, that area called the Middle East or the Gulf region is very important for us
03:54because we have deep economic ties with the countries in that region.
03:59We have got roughly 9 million, 90 lakh Indians working in that area.
04:03And we also have a very strategic relationship with most of these countries.
04:08But most importantly is, of course, since we buy 60% of our oil from that area
04:13and 20%, almost close to 50% of our natural gas, which is LNG, comes from Qatar mainly.
04:22In such a situation, we being anxious is natural.
04:26Markets being anxious, very understandable.
04:29Tomorrow when the markets open in Bombay, Mumbai, you would see the anxiety,
04:34which is very understandable.
04:36But I think if you really go for a deep analysis of the situation as of today,
04:41I'm not too worried about it.
04:43I think, you know, the whole idea is basically, I'm not saying that I agree with it
04:49because I think it's important to respect, you know, the sovereign right of all countries.
04:56For any country to go to any other country and attack is against the international law.
05:00India has never, ever supported these things.
05:02Having said that, whatever has happened is being done by the United States and Israel.
05:06So, therefore, for us, we just, we can either react and we can basically look at the situation.
05:12So, my own sense is that if really there is a regime change in Iran and Iran in the process,
05:20maybe six years down, six months down the line or one year down the line,
05:24they decide to join the global mainstream.
05:27Global mainstream means, you know, business ties with other countries,
05:31maybe some kind of relationship with America or Israel and so on and so forth,
05:35which would also mean that Iran has huge reserves of oil.
05:40Iran has the second largest reserves of gas.
05:43So, all that would basically start flowing into the global supply system.
05:48And that means, you know, more oil will be available.
05:51The supply side would get strengthened.
05:54So, that's also, that's not a bad news for India,
05:56since we import 89% of our total requirement of oil.
06:00But I'm not saying that I support what America is doing.
06:03Absolutely, no, no, no, no.
06:04But at the same time, just say, post this operation,
06:08if the scenario is that there is a regime change,
06:11and the new regime in Iran is such that they decide,
06:15all right, enough is enough, we want to join the global mainstream in the world.
06:19We want to have good relation with all countries.
06:21And we want investment in oil and sector to come into Iran.
06:27Don't forget one thing.
06:28Iran is a rich country in terms of oil and gas, very rich country.
06:33And all they have to do is just open up the oil and gas sector,
06:36let the world come and invest there,
06:38modernize their oil and gas economy,
06:41then Iran in no time will become a very rich country.
06:43And of course, since Iran is sitting very close to us,
06:47very close to us,
06:48for a ship, it takes just three and a half days to go to Iran
06:50and collect oil or gas from there and bring it to India.
06:53It's so close.
06:54In fact, one of our refinery, like Mangalore refinery,
06:56is designed for Iranian oil.
06:59So I think for us, it's good.
07:01And if Iran joins that,
07:03at the same time, we have been showing interest
07:05in terms of investment in Iran for a very long time.
07:08We discovered Farzad B gas field there in Iran.
07:11We did that.
07:12Our company, ONGC Videsh,
07:14it's a different matter.
07:15They refused to give it to us.
07:16They gave it to Chinese.
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