00:00The NOS, the haves and the have-nots, it starts right here, Tom.
00:03The Los Angeles Dodgers, the heavy favorite at a minus 700 price.
00:07And this decision is like, okay, well, the Dodgers play with basically four Colorado Rockies.
00:11They don't, Tom.
00:12The Padres are formidable.
00:13So are the San Francisco Giants.
00:15But the Dodgers are minus 700 compared to the Padres winning that division at plus 950
00:19and the Giants at 17-1.
00:22And then the Diamondbacks, we're chopped liver, 22-1.
00:25And then there's the, what, 300-1 Colorado Rockies.
00:28So let's start here with the division win of the Dodgers.
00:31Minus 700.
00:33Nobody really wants to lay 700 bucks to win 100 and have it sit out there for seven or eight
00:36months at this point.
00:37But, boy, it would be shocking for the Dodgers not to win that division.
00:40But it's not as if the Dodgers, every single year, Tom, notch 110 wins.
00:45They didn't last year.
00:46Oh, they didn't last year.
00:47And there was a point in, oh, what was it, beginning of August, mid-August,
00:52where the Dodgers and Padres had a series.
00:54And it was within one game.
00:56But, like, the Padres had a chance to take over the lead of the NL West.
01:00Now, obviously, we know how things turned out.
01:02But, you know, this is just not a market you can bet into.
01:05I think the win total market for the NL West is far more interesting.
01:10And the easy answer for me is that the Dodgers win the division, but they still fall under their win
01:16total.
01:17Yeah, and we're going to get to those win totals in a second.
01:19It's hard because the Dodgers are such a juggernaut.
01:22When you look at the lineup, it's like, how can it not provide?
01:24But then again, last year, you thought they would run away with the National League in the regular season.
01:27And they didn't at that point.
01:28Phillies and the Brewers certainly had better records than the Los Angeles Dodgers.
01:32But if you did, Tom, just from that betting angle, hey, quarter unit Padres, quarter unit Giants, quarter unit on
01:37the Dinovacs,
01:37somebody chased down the Dodgers.
01:39It's almost like just taking the field with some really good profitability there.
01:42I don't even know if I can bring myself around, too, because of how much a juggernaut the Dodgers actually
01:47are.
01:47I would lean with the Giants just because that's the team I have the most faith in.
01:52But it's also, to your point, do you want to bet $700 to win $100 and keep that locked up
01:57for seven, eight months?
01:58It's like, I don't want to bet $25 on the Giants and keep that locked up for seven, eight months
02:03when I could just use it on opening day or whatever.
02:06Yeah, no, it's interesting there.
02:07But let's take a look at some of these team totals, Tom.
02:09And as we tease before the break, the team with the most wins in Major League Baseball anticipated,
02:13it's the Los Angeles Dodgers, and we'll start there with 103.
02:16Some people think they might be able to challenge the Seattle Mariners there as the best team overall in baseball
02:21history in the regular season.
02:22Some people actually thought that was going to take place last year.
02:25But there's ebbs and flows of a Major League Baseball season.
02:28How many wins do you need in September?
02:30Are they, hey, we're 15 wins away, even though we're running away with this division.
02:34We're going to throw our best pitchers down the stretch.
02:35It's so hard to get 100 wins in baseball.
02:37We look at the Dodgers lineup and say, they should get 100 wins, Tom.
02:41But as I said again, you should have did it last year and didn't.
02:44103.5 wins, Tom.
02:46Where do we go with that?
02:47There's no way to bet the over.
02:49There really is.
02:50It's hard.
02:50It really is hard.
02:51There's so little wiggle room when you are betting the over on a number such as that.
02:58Like, if you were to bet the over on a Giants win total, as we saw there, 80,
03:02there's still some significant room.
03:04There's wiggle room to work with.
03:05If the Dodgers go through a rough stretch, you know, then all of a sudden they're going to be projected
03:09for 99 wins,
03:1098 wins, 97 wins.
03:12And 97 wins will still win them the division pretty comfortably, probably.
03:16But you're going to be behind the eight ball.
03:17So any slow stretch for a team that has that high of a win total is going to put you
03:22well behind.
03:22And it's just not something, again, I want to have locked up for six, seven, eight months to get minus
03:27110 odds on.
03:28That's just what it comes down to.
03:30No, you're right about that, too.
03:32And you take a look again.
03:32The 103.5 number is very high.
03:34Can they get there?
03:35Of course they can.
03:36But you're looking at maybe a team that's going to win around 100 games.
03:39You know, I don't think they're going to have to push late in September just to win that division.
03:42It means they have to get 107, which means that the Padres, the Giants, and the Diamondbacks
03:46was right behind them with triple-digit wins on the season.
03:49So that brings us up to our next point here, Tom.
03:51You look at the Padres at 83.5 win total.
03:54You look at the Giants at 80.5, and then you look at the Diamondbacks at 79.5.
03:57Those are really good numbers.
03:58And the point I'll keep drilling home, Tom, is not saying, well, the Dodgers in your division,
04:02you've got to play them.
04:02You have to play them some.
04:03But you don't play them 24 times during a season where it's like, hey, there's no way I can win
04:07my win total.
04:08Like, there will be balance.
04:09I think, Tom, there is value on those next three teams under the Dodgers.
04:14It really is.
04:15I mean, I keep saying the Giants at 80.5, over 80.5 for the Giants.
04:19Yep.
04:19They have a good lineup.
04:21You know, the rotation's good.
04:22It's not great.
04:23But I just, I like where they sit.
04:25I like the number that they have.
04:26I think they're due for some positive regression.
04:28And, you know, it's not like they're playing, again, all their games in the NL West.
04:30They're going to play against the NL Central, against the NL East.
04:33They're going to have some easy matchups across the board.
04:35And, again, I think there's enough wiggle room that they will improve compared to last year, can push to the
04:40mid or upper 80s.
04:41I'm not saying it's going to be sweat-free.
04:43It may come down to the last few weeks of September.
04:45But I think they'll get there.
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