00:00Let's get some more analysis now with Professor Maziar Garbi, Director of the Centre for Persian and Iranian Studies at
00:06the University of Exeter here in the UK.
00:08Thank you very much indeed, Professor Garbi, for joining us on this momentous day and really a turning point for
00:14Iran and the whole world.
00:15Really history unfolding here. Did you think that this would actually happen, though, happen so quickly, the assassination of Iran's
00:22supreme leader on day one of US and Israeli strikes on Iran?
00:28Hi, and good to be with you. I was surprised. I would expect, I mean, I did expect some sort
00:35of attempt to assassinate Khamenei and other military leaders.
00:40But the success of the Israeli-American campaign is very surprising, given that it was expected.
00:49And it suggests a high level of intelligence penetration within the highest echelon of the Islamic Republic establishment.
01:01This isn't just about Iran, is it, though, Professor? Because the country has had a massive impact and still does
01:06on the region.
01:07It has done since the revolution more than 40 years ago now.
01:10How great a geopolitical shift could we be about to witness in the region?
01:14There are different scenarios. I mean, one is that the current state is weakened so much that it becomes less
01:25relevant of a player geopolitically and basically at the mercy of whatever relief economically can achieve.
01:33And the other is that we go through a period of transition to a new form of state, which then
01:40will depend very much upon the kind of state that will take shape.
01:44Of course, what it seems is that if the Islamic Republic falls apart, there will be probably some sort of
01:53government which will be more aligned with the US foreign policy interests.
01:58But then it could also escalate in a situation of ingovernability, which would see the propping up of different groups,
02:08different military movements located regionally within Iran.
02:13And that could cause a state of a long, protracted internal war.
02:17Well, indeed, let's talk a little bit more about that.
02:19To what extent is Iran pulling in different directions with, you know, internal political opposition without any kind of infrastructure,
02:27really?
02:27Would perhaps a fracturing within the current establishment be more likely, perhaps a source of a pragmatic force taking over?
02:35Or is the ideologically committed Revolutionary Guard Corps still very robust in terms of protecting the Islamic system that it
02:42was set up to do in 1979?
02:45There are economic interests and there are ideological interests here at play.
02:50The fact is that with the basically what amounts to an assassination campaign led by the Americans and the Israelis,
02:58the top echelon of the Islamic Republic is being taken out of the game.
03:02And that means the second rank coming into government, into position of influence.
03:09And for how long that could last, it's unclear.
03:14But there are also, as I said, economic interests.
03:17And these are entrenched within the industrial military complex of Iran.
03:21And that would like to see their interests maintained in any future scenario.
03:26I would imagine that the Iranian leadership, whatever leadership emerges in the coming weeks, will not capitulate to American demands.
03:39And it will pursue a sort of resilient approach vis-Ă -vis foreign intervention.
03:45Nonetheless, there is a widespread discontent across the country.
03:51And so there is also the level of popular pressure that will call for a negotiated settlement or what would
03:58amount effectively to a capitulation.
04:00So that Iran could slowly, at least hopefully, be reintegrated in the global economy and therefore having basically the payoff
04:10of not being under sanction and being aligned with the Americans.
04:16So, if essentially, as you say, the regime in some form, if the government in some form rather survives and
04:22does not capitulate, what would have been the point in the Israeli-American strikes?
04:27What is the endgame here if essentially the government does go on to exist in some form?
04:33I think we have to go beyond the rhetoric led by the Israelis and the Americans.
04:38The one objective, which is an Israeli objective, and the Americans are effectively acting as a proxy to the Israelis
04:44war in Iran, is to decapitate the military infrastructure in Iran.
04:52So that the Islamic Republic does not pose in any effective way a military threat to Israel.
04:59And by military threat, I don't mean that Iran ever has had really an existential threat towards Israel.
05:05But the fact that Iranian ballistic missiles could target the Israeli territory was perceived as a red line by the
05:13Israeli leadership.
05:14And that's been currently taken out.
05:16And the future of Iran, from an Israeli perspective, is of a country that is not governable, that doesn't pose
05:24any effective military threat.
05:27And the best way to achieve that is to have a weak government in Tehran.
05:32And what are your concerns here of the stability of the region?
05:36Of course, seeing these strikes hitting Gulf countries really unprecedented.
05:41Is there any going back now, or is this conflict likely to really escalate and escalate and really engulf the
05:46Middle East?
05:48I think it will engulf the Middle East, and it has already engulfed the Middle East, as it was promised
05:54by the late Supreme Leader.
05:58You know, from an American and Israeli perspective, the fact that Gulf countries are being basically brought into the conflict
06:08is not really of the highest concern.
06:11What is of the highest concern is that they achieve a level of military success that they declare the end
06:20of the conflict unilaterally.
06:24Gulf countries are very much at the mercy of American military support.
06:29They do not really have any leverage beyond the financial leverage of their oil flows.
06:37So, I mean, although we are talking about diplomatic pressure on the American government,
06:42we know effectively that the American military umbrella, the security umbrella that they provide on the GCC, is vital to
06:50this country.
06:51And in this instance, it's secondary, because what is primary is Israel's pressure on the United States.
06:59Professor, very grateful indeed for your insights today.
07:02Thank you so much for joining us, Professor Maziar Garbi, Director of the Centre for Persian and Iranian Studies Institute
07:08of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter.
07:11Thank you so much.
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