00:00Mark, help us understand the haze created by the NVIDIA story and what that does to sentiment and
00:05to markets. Nasdaq futures down, but only a tenth of a percent now. I wonder what you took away from
00:10this, the results from this titan overnight. Probably what the biggest takeaway was that
00:16we weren't so hyped about NVIDIA earnings this time. For the first time in probably 18 months,
00:21it didn't feel like it was capturing the whole week to quite the same extent. And I think that
00:26gets to the point that the AI conversation has moved on quite a bit. Your previous guest there,
00:32David Swimmer, just outlined the confusion out there around AI and the impact it will have across
00:38industries. And I think a lot of people are really grasping for ideas. I'm loathe to have too much
00:44conviction in any one scenario, but I certainly sympathize the idea that David expressed there
00:49that people are certainly jumping very rapidly to some quite dystopian conclusions that don't
00:56seem particularly likely. I know there's a whole kind of distribution of probabilities out there,
01:01but I think ultimately what's happening in AI is it is a productivity boom. And you're going to see
01:05many companies do a lot more with the same kind of workforce. Now, some of those companies are also
01:10going to get rid of workers as well, but overall there should be a wealth boom in the world. And
01:15I
01:15think that is ultimately quite bullish. And that is the dominant story. I think that the kind of AI
01:20story, however you perceive it at the moment, is the dominant story for this year. And it's kind of moved
01:25beyond the simple thing of like, oh my God, let's buy Nvidia because AI is coming along.
01:29Nvidia is still a great stock, but it didn't dominate the week this time.
01:34Mark, just to talk about Japan, we've had a few headlines crossing this morning,
01:38not least the Bank of Japan's biggest hawks calling, renewing calls for hikes. So we've seen
01:43the yen up, but pairing gains. Does this, is this the sort of thing we're going to see continue?
01:49Earlier in the week, one of your colleagues had said that the yen weakness was going to be contained.
01:56Look, Liz, you know, I'm a structural yen bear. I'm always inclined to think the yen is,
02:01you know, over the long term, is always just going to keep on depreciating because they're
02:04going to monetize their massive debt load. In terms of if this is going to be what we're
02:08going to keep on seeing more of, I feel like this is what we've seen for the last couple
02:10of years is constant policymakers, you know, saying we need to do more tightening. We need
02:14to normalize policy a little bit more. There are more things that we can do, but we're going
02:18to go gradually and slowly and we're going to watch for price pressures. We're going to watch
02:21for FX volatility. Ultimately, the picture is not really changing. Japan is a low growth economy
02:27with a very large debt load and only offering negative real yields that does not make it an
02:32attractive currency over the long term. Mark, of course, heading into these conversations
02:38in Geneva today, Iran and geopolitics very much in focus for commodity markets. We also have an
02:43OPEC plus meeting on Sunday, which puts the glut story back in focus. What are you watching when
02:48it comes to oil prices?
02:52I mean, obviously, everyone in the market is wondering about the Iran situation. I think,
02:58you know, I don't want to kind of speculate whether there will be action or not, but I think if,
03:03you know, it's how we then measure that in markets. And I think that the key questions are
03:07is it will be one off strikes if there is action or whether it will be the start of the
03:11same campaign and whether they seek regime change or it's just to accelerate the negotiations
03:16process. OK, well, Brent, pretty steady at the moment. Seventy dollars a barrel. Mark
03:22Goodwill, thank you very much.
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