00:00The CFTC, Sam, seemingly, and again, I don't mean to make light of this, but
00:05you've heard about folks doing dead pools before trying to predict.
00:09And celebrities would pass away.
00:12I mean, I thought that was kind of morbid, but let's not deny it goes on across
00:17the country.
00:18CFTC does not want these prediction markets being involved in harm or
00:24death.
00:25That makes sense, but I don't know.
00:27So I mean, it seems like the prediction markets are pushing back on everything.
00:30Are they going to push back here?
00:34Yeah, getting back to the core issue of prediction markets is there's really no one
00:38regulating it right now.
00:39The CFTC is supposed to, but the CFTC is like historically understaffed.
00:45It's probably has even less staff than we know about and underfunded, certainly.
00:49And the argument here for the folks who want regulation is, hey, the federal regulator
00:54really is not the federal regulator because there's no one there.
00:57So one of the main issues is these prediction markets can just offer contracts on seemingly
01:01whatever they want by self-certifying.
01:03We talked about a few months ago, the issue the NCAA had with Cal Sheen moving towards
01:08offering an event contract market on the decision of transfer portals or college transfer decisions,
01:14which is supposed to be explicitly prohibited.
01:17Now, death is also supposed to be something you're not allowed to financially invest in on the outcome.
01:24Or for that matter, you can't bet on it on at a casino or on a sports book for obvious
01:30reasons.
01:30But six Democratic senators this week wrote a letter to the CFTC asking that they really clarify what those rules
01:37are with death contracts.
01:39They cited the NASA Artemis 2 mission.
01:43You could bet on the outcome of that mission being a failure.
01:46So senators kind of, you know, worried.
01:48Are we betting on astronauts dying?
01:50They mentioned the Russia-Ukraine conflict where you can bet on the outcome.
01:55So are you betting on technically war there?
01:58And they also mentioned Nicolas Maduro, who was ousted, you know, famously very recently in Venezuela.
02:07And are you betting on, if you're betting on him to be ousted, are you betting on him to be
02:11assassinated?
02:11You know, what are the outcomes?
02:12How are those contingent upon life and death?
02:15Quite explicitly, the Commodities Exchange Act states that you can't bet on terrorism or you can't invest in assassination or
02:22war.
02:22So there are categories that are explicitly prohibited, but because some of these markets can be decided by a death
02:28or a fate or a terrorism act or something, these senators basically want clarity from the CFTC.
02:35Now, CFTC has largely not really done anything with prediction markets, which have just boomed over the past year.
02:41Their volume has gone up like 100 times since the year before, mainly on the back of sports.
02:47But recently, the CFTC did come out and say it's going to, you know, issue new rules.
02:52So this could be something that they take into account in that process.
02:56Certainly no mention of sports, but again, because this is really transforming the way we talk about sports betting and
03:01just gambling law in general, it definitely relates.
03:04And it's definitely just more of Congress kind of scrutinizing this growing sector, which obviously more and more pushback is
03:11coming.
03:12But these lawsuits have to play out and we have to see what else happens.
03:15I'm sure this isn't kind of the last controversial thing we talk about with prediction markets, that's for sure.
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