00:00I'm wondering how you're feeling about that Satrini research report, a relatively small
00:05outfit, but a huge impact on markets. Is this a reflection of the fears that are out there about
00:10what AI is going to bring for all of us? It was an interesting read. And I can appreciate a
00:17lot
00:17of the focus on what is this revolutionary and disruptive technology bring on a multi-multi-year
00:24type of basis. And it struck me as a bit of a, you know, a thought piece, a little bit
00:28academic
00:29in nature and trying to imagine oneself a half decade into the future and looking back into a
00:34series of events, you know, that potentially could occur. There is no doubt that there is going to
00:40be some winners and losers through this era of disruption in terms of AI. And that is actually
00:46commonplace with disruptive and new technologies over time. So in that respect, it's probably not
00:52going to be that different from many of these other big advancements and industrializations over time.
00:58I think the importance is going to be to be nimble, to be focused on companies that ideally
01:03have resilient business models that have proven ability to generate cash flow into the future
01:08and can adapt with the time. So this type of volatility and back and forth that we're seeing
01:13in markets as a bit of a byproduct of, you know, research reports and focusing on what's happening
01:18with the AR trade. It's a, it's a kind of thing we'll probably continue to see in the, in the
01:22weeks
01:22and months to come. What did you think of the idea of mass layoffs and therefore the need for
01:27government taxation? I mean, the report was sort of talking about it being AI being revolutionary
01:32because it's kind of replacing human intelligence. But I think the thing that, you know, people took
01:36away from it was the idea of, of, of the kind of replacement of, of workers. Is that anything new?
01:42So disintermediation of different employees and different sectors is also a characteristic of
01:50different, uh, industrialization oriented changes that we've seen over time. The ATM machine, for
01:55example, is something that is often pointed to, and there was a lot of fear that, oh, goodness gracious,
02:01this is going to result in a tremendous loss of jobs over time. And in fact, it ultimately ended up
02:06with a pivot of people doing all kinds of other different things on the machinery side services
02:11and pivoting to other areas of the economy. Now I could appreciate how the impact of AI does look
02:18to be more bigger picture disruptive in nature. But if you believe in human ingenuity and the incredible
02:25dynamism of the U S and the global economy and the ability of business leaders and economies and people
02:31that are driving technology to adapt, then I think you actually want to take the optimistic viewpoint
02:36here that AI can be a contributor to economic growth, productivity, and ideally the adaptability
02:43that the global economy has shown over time also sees us through this transition, even though it may
02:49have some bumpy and disruptive moments, you know, just like, um, some reports I've been talking about
02:54recently. Okay. The other, of course, big story that we're following this morning is the, the new tariff
03:00regime, the new 10% global tariff coming after Friday's Supreme court ruling as well. Does this
03:06do more than just introduce uncertainty again to the tariff story?
03:11So to a degree, yes, but interestingly, the ultimate effective tariff rate was in, uh, in the mid to high
03:19teens at about 16% before things change with the series of events that occurred with Supreme court ruling
03:25and then 10% announcement, the 15% that has not actually been been put into force. But if we
03:31kind of go through
03:32each of those steps and if that next, you know, level occurs, then the re-landing zone could actually be
03:38in the
03:3813 and a half percent range, which is really not that dissimilar to the 60% number that we were,
03:45you know,
03:45before the series of things occurred over the course of the last few days. So we don't actually think it
03:50is likely to be
03:51an enormous factor for the directionality of the global economy and what happens with markets in the
03:57quarters to come. And furthermore, one of the things that's perhaps a bit encouraging, I mean, think back to the
04:03post liberation day period in 2025, there were a lot of fears of a massive stagflationary impulse on the global
04:09economy. Many economists around the world were predicting a U S recession. There was great concerns about where
04:16everything was going to go. We have actually seen a global economy that's continued to chug along
04:22earnings have really continued to chug along and we have not actually had some terrible, persistent
04:28inflationary uptrend spike. So again, with that optimistic type of viewpoint that I expressed earlier,
04:35the dynamism of the global economy continues to show its stuff time and again. And we believe that
04:42that same type of pattern of being able to weather this relatively new normal type of environment
04:47is probably also going to continue to be the case in 26.
Comments