00:02This is Apropos.
00:03Well, the three-day visit comes as Paris seeks to expand its military partnership with New Delhi.
00:09The French president has touched down in India for talks expected to focus on a potential multi-billion euro fighter
00:16jet deal.
00:17Emmanuel Macron will also be attending a summit on artificial intelligence.
00:21Well, with more on what to expect, here's Jenny Shin.
00:25It's the French president's fourth official visit to India, aimed at deepening strategic ties in the Indo-Pacific.
00:32First on the agenda for Emmanuel Macron, attending a global AI summit in New Delhi alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
00:40The AI Impact Summit will enrich global discourse on diverse aspects of AI, such as innovation, collaboration, responsible use and
00:49more.
00:50The trip comes as Macron positions France as India's key technology and security partner,
00:55as both countries seek to reduce economic dependencies on China
00:59and navigate an increasingly uncertain economic landscape created by Donald Trump.
01:05New Delhi and Paris will aim to advance their so-called Horizon 2047 roadmap,
01:10a bilateral promise to expand collaboration in areas ranging from nuclear energy to high-tech manufacturing.
01:17Defence will also be a key talking point.
01:20France is already one of India's leading arms suppliers,
01:23with India set to purchase $39 billion worth of defence equipment,
01:27including more Rafale jets for the Indian Air Force.
01:30New Delhi has steadily sought to reduce its dependence on its traditional supplier Russia over the past decade,
01:36instead increasing imports from France, Israel and the United States.
01:42Well, for more on the visit and just what exactly is at stake,
01:45we're joined here in studio by political scientist Christophe Jafferleau,
01:50Research Director at the CNRS and President of the French Political Science Association.
01:55Thanks so much for being with us this evening.
01:58We do appreciate your time for coming into studio as well.
02:00Christophe, let's talk about what is potentially on the cards during this visit.
02:05You've described this potential deal when it comes to French fighter jets as the contract of the century.
02:12We're hearing that it could be worth up to 30 billion euros.
02:15Just tell us, why is it so significant?
02:17Well, it is very significant because it is the culminating point of a very long collaboration.
02:25And when you become so close, when you have so much at stake, you're bound to remain partners.
02:34India will never have allies, but partners for sure, for a long time.
02:39So yes, it's an important moment, especially if in this deal there is a transfer of technology.
02:47And this is what we will know very soon, because India needs to build its own fighter jets at the
02:53end of the day,
02:54if not the day of the century, hopefully.
02:57For that, they need transfer of technology.
02:59And this contract, this deal may include new kinds of transfers of technology.
03:04This is what has to be watched in addition to the magnitude of the deal.
03:09And historically speaking, India, you know, it has very close ties with Russia when it comes to military equipment.
03:17Do you think Europe and particularly France is well placed to potentially replace Moscow?
03:22Yes, in this domain, at least.
03:24Fighter jets are very well appreciated.
03:28The Rafales has been sold now to so many countries, including Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE.
03:37But of course, there are other weapons, including submarines, scorpions.
03:44We are sold by France to India as well.
03:48So it may not be only in this domain.
03:50But whatever the domain, to emancipate itself from dependency vis-à-vis Russia is one of India's priorities.
03:59So till the end of USSR, it was something like 80% of the weapons that India had, which are
04:10coming from Russia.
04:11We are now at 40% or so.
04:13And France, Israel, the U.S. are helping Germany, are helping India to diversify.
04:21And do you think that this deal, you're saying that Russia and India, you know, New Delhi is trying to
04:27disassociate itself to some degree,
04:30but Russia is still one of India's main trading partners, isn't it?
04:34So do you think there's going to be a caveat when it comes to this deal, Emmanuel Macron putting the
04:39pressure on New Delhi here to roll back from those ties with Russia?
04:45India will have to find some ways to compensate vis-à-vis Russia, because the idea is not to weaken
04:52Russia.
04:53It's not to severe the links with Russia.
04:56Russia has to remain a very important partner for India.
05:00India wants a multi-polar world.
05:02Russia has to be one of these poles.
05:05The EU, another one, of course, to resist China and now to resist the U.S.
05:11But of course, Russia may be passed off, may be very much passed off by this decision, if it is
05:19at the expense of buying more equipment from Russia.
05:24So most probably India will buy more S-400, which are very effective solar, earth-air missiles.
05:34The question that remains is the Russian oil, because India has been told by Donald Trump to stop buying Russian
05:45oil.
05:45Apparently, it is stopping buying Russian oil.
05:50And that may be even more complicated for Moscow, because Moscow needs this kind of money.
05:56But the Europeans are not supposed to put pressure on India on that ground.
06:00In public, in any case, what happens behind closed doors, perhaps another question.
06:05You mentioned, Christophe, the U.S. there.
06:07This visit, Emmanuel Macron's visit to India, it comes not long after New Delhi signed that trade deal with Europe.
06:14So given the wider geopolitical context here, how necessary is it for India, for the EU, to start forging these
06:22other ties that perhaps it traditionally might have had more so with the United States?
06:26Yes, definitely, this rapprochement between India and the EU is also a reaction to the way the EU and India
06:34are treated by Donald Trump.
06:39India, the EU have been at the receiving end of trade deals of, well, of course, also very bad manners
06:49regarding Greenland, regarding also Shabahar.
06:53You know, India has been asked by Donald Trump to stop investing in Shabahar, a very important deep seaport in
07:00Iran that India needs to relate to Afghanistan, to contain Pakistan.
07:06So these two middle powers, the EU, India, in this context, vis-à-vis a new America, have come together
07:18economically in trade relations and now militarily in terms of arms sales.
07:24And Chinese influence also, that's another issue, kind of close to both leaders' hearts.
07:31Do you think that's going to weigh heavily on these talks as well?
07:34It plays a role.
07:35It plays a role in two ways.
07:37One, very important, the Indo-Pacific.
07:40France and India are, of course, very much cooperating in the Indian Ocean.
07:47France is a resident power in the Indian Ocean with La Réunion Island, with Mayotte, with Djibouti also.
07:53And India, of course, like France, is fearful of China expanding its influence in this part of the world because
08:04of Sri Lanka's deep seaport built by China, because of also the Maldives, because of Djibouti again, because there is
08:13a Chinese military base in Djibouti.
08:15So, that's one very important area for cooperation, the Indo-Pacific in the Indian Ocean.
08:22And then, of course, there is another China factor, that is, how do you emancipate yourself from the supply chain
08:29that is coming from China?
08:32And France and the EU are in France and the EU and India are more or less in the same
08:38situation.
08:38How do we diversify for the semiconductors, for the medicines?
08:44India is supposed to be the pharmacy of the world.
08:47Yes, for the generics, but most of the ingredients they need to export their generics come from China.
08:54So, again, middle powers joining hands in order to resist not only the US, but also China economically.
09:02And, in fact, this is why the AI is so important, because this domain is again monopolized or dominated by
09:11the G2, China and the US, and they need to resist these middle powers.
09:17And by pooling their resources, Europe and India may resist more effectively.
09:24And how significant do you think it is that India is hosting this summit, the first developing country, if we
09:30can use that term, to do so?
09:31Yeah, that's very important.
09:33Well, India is good at services.
09:35IT is the most important sector of the economy, the most modern sector of the economy.
09:41And, in fact, India is exporting services almost as much as goods, which is really remarkable for an emerging country.
09:50IT has something to do with AI.
09:52The IT big champions of India, Tata, Infosys, Wipro, big companies based in Bangalore, most of them are investing in
10:03AI.
10:04And, of course, on the French side, we also have some licorns, some good companies, Mistral and Co.
10:11So, the idea is probably to make these companies work together more in order to innovate.
10:18Innovate is key in this domain, and these countries do not innovate sufficiently.
10:24R&D, research and development expenditures, are very weak compared to the kind of R&D China and the US
10:32are doing.
10:32So, again, pooling resources, working together, investing together, innovating together may be a solution.
10:40Whether they'll do it remains to be seen.
10:42You can't twist the arms of private companies, but at least the governments try to push them in this direction.
10:48And do you think they'll be coming under pressure as well, the tech giants, to kind of become more accountable?
10:52Because we had a similar summit in Paris last year, and the US side agreed to sign up to any
10:58of those calls for greater accountability from the tech giants.
11:03They will revisit these issues, accountability, privacy, you know, the surveillance question.
11:12Number one, yes, the big players in the US are not there.
11:17I mean, if they are there, they may not agree to sign anything.
11:21So, if they are not on board, really, it is really meaningless.
11:26Secondly, so far as surveillance is concerned, privacy is concerned, India is not as, I would say, particular about human
11:38rights than the EU.
11:41And, for instance, the kind of personal data protection that we have in Europe is not there in India.
11:52And the EU was hopeful, very hopeful, that the kind of model the EU represents in terms of personal data
11:59protection would be adopted by India, and it is not the case.
12:03India is now more a surveillance state, somewhat a police state, and there we diverge, but we will not speak
12:11about it anyway.
12:13There's a lot that we won't actually know what will be happening behind the scenes.
12:18But, Christophe, can I just ask you finally, how much of a priority has India been for Emmanuel Macron?
12:23We hear this is his fourth visit since he came to office in 2017.
12:27It has been a very important priority.
12:30First of all, because the Indo-Pacific is certainly his work, personal work.
12:36Over 10 years, almost 10 years, he has been pushing the Indo-Pacific agenda.
12:41Remember, 2018, for the first time in Australia, he says, the Indo-Pacific is where things happen.
12:48We want to be there.
12:49India was in the Indo-Pacific, along with Australia, but Australia went the hawkish way, along with Japan, and we
12:56are still close to Japan.
12:57But India was, along these two others, a very old partner of France.
13:02You know, 1982, Mitterrand goes to Delhi and sells the first fighter jets.
13:0782, many, many decades ago.
13:10And then, 1998, Jacques Chirac goes to Delhi and signed the first tragic partnership with India.
13:17So, Macron is capitalizing on something that is really now very solid and robust, but in the context of the
13:25Indo-Pacific becoming its priority.
13:27So, the two things superposed, I mean, coinciding, explain why we are here today, and India needing to diversify, needing
13:35good weapons to resist Pakistan, to resist China, in a very conflictual context.
13:43I mean, these are the elements explaining that the rapprochement is still going on.
13:50A lot at stake, Ben.
13:51Over the next three days, we'll be watching closely.
13:53Christophe, thanks so much for coming in to us.
13:55We'll have to leave it there for now.
13:56Christophe Jafferlo, Research Director at the CNRS.
14:00Christophe, thanks so much for coming in.
14:01Well, that's it.
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