00:02Obviously, a geo-economic fragmentation in the world will cost us a lot, you know, in growth, in investment, in
00:13supply chains, and it will cost a lot in the most vulnerable countries that they cannot defend themselves from such
00:21a world.
00:21They don't have the cushion and they don't have the ability to negotiate like the big countries or the powerful
00:28countries.
00:29And so we have to be worried about that because instability across the world because of the vulnerable economies not
00:37being able to take any advantage from the global economy will really make the world more insecure and more unstable.
00:45And I think that that lens on the vulnerable economies, on the small economies, will be very important to avoid
00:53any fragmentation of the economic and the global economic work.
01:02But the second part is that it doesn't make so much sense, yes?
01:06Okay. How so?
01:07It doesn't make sense for anybody because at the end we all will lose.
01:12Yes. So I prefer, it's true that tariffs have gone up, but it's also true that a trade, a pure
01:20open trade war has not happened because there are negotiations.
01:26Negotiations between very important countries, Europe and the U.S., U.S. and China, and negotiation is much better than
01:34an open tariff war.
01:36So it's true that tariffs have gone up, some of them are coming down because they're hurting people in these
01:43countries, but my plea will be for more negotiation.
01:49And negotiated outcome will always be better than a trade war.
01:55You mentioned about these vulnerable economies, and you spoke about fragmentation as well.
02:02Moving forward, do you see the blocs competing with each other more in sort of a friend-shoring?
02:11And if so, who will lose the most?
02:14And how can the developing countries make sure that they're not the ones actually being squeezed out?
02:19You know, we have seen some trends for friend-shoring, but that has a limit because at the end the
02:27world is very interdependent.
02:29So you can do a little bit of that, but you cannot go all the way in trade blocs, fragmented
02:38completely, dissociated.
02:40You know, I don't think that that is really possible and viable.
02:46So that's why we are looking or seeing more negotiations than just French-horing, just I will trade only with
02:56my friends.
02:57No, that doesn't work.
02:59That's my first point.
03:00But it's true that, let me give you this indicator.
03:06The least developed countries of the world, the most vulnerable and poor countries of the world, are facing today an
03:13average tariff with the U.S. of 27%.
03:17This is more than any other rich country.
03:21This is more than any other big country.
03:23So they are hurting the most, and that doesn't make sense because these countries are not a threat, not a
03:30threat in terms of trade deficit or of security or in terms of income.
03:36They don't represent anything in terms of tariffs.
03:39So what we are saying is let's look at this evidence, let's look at these countries, and let's revise the
03:47policy so it will make more sense.
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