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00:00What's up you guys, it's Graham here, and we're fu-
00:02Okay, in all seriousness, even though Bitcoin was the best performing asset of 2024, and of the last decade,
00:08today the tables have completely turned.
00:10Bitcoin is quickly falling, down 45% from its all-time high.
00:14People are getting their entire accounts liquidated overnight.
00:17And even Michael Saylor, who owns 3.4% of all Bitcoin in existence,
00:22is now more than $6.5 billion underwater.
00:25So now that people are once again mortgaging their homes to buy the dip,
00:29I think it's critical that we talk about what's happening, the bull and bear case for today's value,
00:35how bad this sell-off could realistically get, why some people believe it could be going down to zero,
00:40and when you should actually buy in based on the data.
00:43Because here's the reality.
00:45This sell-off isn't random.
00:46It's not retail panic.
00:48It is something much bigger.
00:49And once you see it, you'll understand why this next move matters so much more than anything else that's happened before.
00:55Although before we start, if you appreciate the last-minute breaking news videos like this,
00:59it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already.
01:03Yes, it is dumb.
01:04Yes, I hate asking for it, but it does help out tremendously.
01:07And as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a flamingo.
01:10So thanks so much.
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01:13But more on that later.
01:14All right, so let's not waste any time.
01:16Here's the reason we're seeing a Bitcoin sell-off.
01:19At this point, we really have five catalysts that are responsible for today's price collapse,
01:23with the first being, one, investors are turning risk off.
01:27As mundane as it might sound, investors are rotating out of speculative assets
01:31and into more safe havens as economic uncertainty is increasing.
01:35After all, stocks are trading at relatively high valuations.
01:38Three out of four conditions are meant for AI to be considered a bubble.
01:41And with interest rates expected to remain relatively the same for the next few months,
01:45Bitcoin becomes a sell-the-news event, especially as people take their losses for tax loss harvesting.
01:50Two, the U.S. dollar is strengthening.
01:52Here's the thing.
01:53Most people purchase Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, a weakening dollar, and less purchasing
01:57power.
01:58But when the dollar starts getting stronger, there's less of a reason to buy Bitcoin.
02:02And that leads to a sell-off, especially with four.
02:05ETF sales are amplifying the crash.
02:08Just consider this.
02:09When you go and buy an ETF, that ETF must go and buy the underlying Bitcoin to hold as a reserve.
02:14Now, even though this works in favor of Bitcoin, when the price is going up and the ETF is buying
02:19everything available, it also works in reverse, where people sell the ETF, the ETF then has
02:25to sell the underlying Bitcoin, causing the price to fall, causing people to sell even
02:30more of the ETF, causing the price to fall even further, creating a death spiral.
02:34On top of that, four, there's also no more new good news.
02:37For instance, a year ago, there was the promise of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
02:41There was optimism around Bitcoin ETFs.
02:43It was assumed that we would just continue printing endless money.
02:46Gold had yet to steal the spotlight, and Bitcoin was positioned to be a dominating asset that would
02:51eventually increase to $250,000, $500,000, and even a million dollars.
02:56But now, there's no more good news to look forward to.
02:59Most of the highlights have somewhat neutralized.
03:02Recent cryptocurrency legislation appears to have stalled, and there's the assumption that if we see
03:07another blue wave throughout Congress, they could move to further regulate Bitcoin in a way
03:12that suppresses its price, leading to fifth, a loss of conviction.
03:16A lot of investors no longer believe that Bitcoin is a hedge against macro or geopolitical risks for
03:21the fact that gold rose 50% in 2025, while Bitcoin fell 7%.
03:25Instead, Bitcoin became a leveraged risk asset that was more so associated with speculative stocks.
03:32Even Deutsche Bank said that the recent sell-off is more likely about negative retail interest
03:37than any one-off event.
03:38Or put more simply, people are losing faith that Bitcoin is correlated to anything, causing
03:43them to sell off, which causes the price to fall even further, causing people to lose more
03:47interest, causing them to sell off.
03:49Now, before we talk about whether or not this could soon be a generational buying opportunity
03:54that retires your entire bloodline, or the biggest mistake you're ever going to make,
03:59we got to talk about Bitcoin risks.
04:01To break this down, let's start with one of the most respected investors of all time,
04:05Warren Buffett.
04:06He's famously said that you can't value Bitcoin because it's not a value-producing asset.
04:10If you buy something like Bitcoin, or some cryptocurrency, you don't really have anything
04:14that's produced anything.
04:15You're just hoping the next guy pays more.
04:17In essence, this is why he's repeatedly referred to it as a gambling token, to the point where
04:21he wouldn't pay $25 for all the Bitcoin in the world.
04:24Now, to clarify on this point even further, he explained that assets to have value have to
04:30deliver something to somebody, and there's only one currency that's accepted.
04:33You can come up with all kinds of things, we could put up Berkshire coins, but in the
04:37end, there's no reason in the world why the United States government is going to let Berkshire
04:40money replace theirs.
04:42Now, even though this seems like a fairly rational explanation on the surface, his late partner
04:46Charlie Munger had much more vulgar things to say.
04:49Like in the past, he's called Bitcoin rat poison that will go to zero, that it's crazy
04:53stupid gambling, anyone who disagrees is an idiot, and compares it to, and I quote,
04:59somebody else is trading turds, and you decide, I can't be left out.
05:02But even though some people have been vehemently against it, others have slowly switched their
05:07tune.
05:07For example, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan previously said that Bitcoin was worthless and a tool
05:12for criminals, although now his firm says that it has better long-term appeal than gold.
05:17Or take the billionaire Ray Dalio.
05:19He previously called Bitcoin a bubble, but now refers to it as one hell of an invention.
05:24Even take Larry Fink from BlackRock.
05:26Years ago, he said that Bitcoin was an index of money laundering, but now he admits it's
05:31a legitimate financial instrument with potential to outperform the internet.
05:34That's why I've recently had several analysts come out with some pretty staggering price
05:38predictions over the next few decades.
05:40Like Cathie Wood doubled down on her Bitcoin position, Michael Saylor still believes it'll
05:44eventually hit $10 million, and Robert Kiyosaki has cash in hand to buy more.
05:48However, I'm not going to lie, this could also be the beginning of a much broader and much
05:52worse sell-off that lasts a lot longer than people expect.
05:55Like stifle analysts are expecting it to fall to $38,000.
05:59Previous crashes have been as high as $75,000 to a 90% loss.
06:03And there's now the narrative that we'll see $50,000 right around the corner.
06:07So in terms of my own plan, what you could do about this, and what history suggests is
06:11most likely going to happen next, here's what you came for, because this might wind up
06:16saving you a lot of money.
06:17Although before we go into that, I just got to say the biggest risk right now isn't what
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08:07Thank you so much, enjoy, and now let's get back to the video.
08:09All right, now in terms of what history says is most likely going to happen next, let's
08:13talk about the Bitcoin cycle.
08:15To start, it's important to keep in mind that over the last five years, despite one
08:18of the fastest sell-offs we have ever seen in history, Bitcoin is still up 67%.
08:23Since February of 2020, it's up more than 500%, and by all metrics, it is still significantly
08:29higher than what most people thought it would be worth 10 years ago.
08:32Although with all of that in mind, it is important to remember that Bitcoin is incredibly risky and
08:37volatile, to the point where seeing almost all of your money wiped out in a few years
08:42is not unusual whatsoever.
08:43For example, in 2018, it fell 83%, in 2021, it fell 50%, in 2022, it fell 74%.
08:51And that is just the tip of the iceberg.
08:53In 2011, it fell 99% after the Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange was hacked.
08:58In August 2012, it fell 56%.
09:00In April of 2013, it fell 83%.
09:03In March of 2020, it fell 50%.
09:05You see where I'm going with this.
09:07Through today, it is normal for Bitcoin to rally to unbelievable highs to the point where
09:11everyone thinks they have to buy in immediately or they're going to miss out getting rich.
09:15Then it sells off 80%, everyone believes this crash is different, people lose a ton of money,
09:21and the narrative changes from, I want to get rich, to, well, I learned a lesson and I'm
09:25never going to do that again.
09:27Of course, it is important for me to mention that just because Bitcoin has recovered in the past,
09:32and then proceeded to go to all-time highs doesn't mean that will continue in the future.
09:36And there is a chance that this time is actually different.
09:40But I remember making videos on Bitcoin when it was barely hitting a thousand.
09:43I was there when it crashed from a high of 17,000.
09:46I made a video when Bitcoin was $3,500.
09:49And literally nobody cared.
09:51It was one of my least viewed videos purely because there was no hype around it.
09:55I then made videos when Bitcoin was 30,000, 100,000.
09:59I remember every single time people said, oh, this time is different, and then something
10:03changes and the narrative completely flips.
10:05The same could be said about the Bitcoin four-year cycle.
10:08For the last 15 years, Bitcoin has gone through a rather predictable phase where people begin
10:12accumulating, the price starts growing, a bubble occurs with parabolic expansion, then
10:17the price crashes 80% and we start the process over again.
10:20I also find it funny that this person on 4chan seems to have correctly predicted the Bitcoin's
10:24all-time high back in 2023.
10:27And if this person is still accurate, we'd probably see an all-time low around October
10:32of 2026.
10:33That's why, in terms of what I think, what's most likely going to happen next, and how you
10:37could have the best chance at coming at ahead profitable, here's what you came for.
10:42To start, let's just get this out of the way.
10:43I'm seeing a lot of posts about Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy being underwater to the point
10:48of getting liquidated and collapsing the entire market.
10:51So let's just set the record straight, Michael Saylor cannot get liquidated.
10:55Look, for those unaware, MicroStrategy currently owns about 3.5% of the entire Bitcoin's supply,
11:00or around 735,000 Bitcoin.
11:02That's a lot.
11:03He could theoretically collapse the entire market instantly if he was forced to sell.
11:08But that's not how his fund works.
11:10It's not like Bitcoin hits 60,000 and he's forced to sell everything to pay back investors.
11:15Instead, he operates by issuing what's called convertible debt, that really acts more like
11:19a long-term loan.
11:21In this case, people give Michael Saylor money, he buys Bitcoin with it, and those people could
11:25get paid back in a few years in either cash or in MicroStrategy stock if the price is higher.
11:31Really the biggest risk here is that Bitcoin's price stays absurdly low for many years on end,
11:37MicroStrategy has to then pay back investors, and they have to dilute current shareholders
11:42by issuing way more stock to raise cash to pay back old investors.
11:45I suppose in an absolute worst case scenario, he could theoretically sell off some Bitcoin,
11:51but that would be the nuclear option, and I just don't see that happening.
11:54Second, I also see a lot of concerns about quantum computers rendering Bitcoin worthless.
11:59But so far, these quantum computers don't exist.
12:02Bitcoin can always be upgraded to become quantum resistant.
12:05And even though yes, it can be a concern for the future if the network doesn't adapt,
12:09realistically, it's not something to be concerned about right now.
12:12That's why in terms of my own strategy going forward and what I am doing, here are my thoughts.
12:17Overall, my philosophy is this, I'm totally fine holding 5-10% of my portfolio in a Bitcoin ETF,
12:24knowing that I don't need the money, and if the price falls 80%, it's a risk I'm willing
12:28to take.
12:29Yes, it would suck to see the price fall 80%, but I treat this as it would any other investment.
12:35I just dollar cost average on a regular basis.
12:37I keep buying if the price goes up, I keep buying if the price goes down, and if it's
12:41worth more in the future, great.
12:43I've been doing this off and on since 2017, and I'm just not bothered by the price.
12:48The way I see it, so far Bitcoin has not done well when the overall market is falling or
12:53against fears of an economic slowdown, so I doubt it's going to serve as a safe haven
12:57like gold.
12:58But I've also noticed that usually, when everyone has lost hope and everyone thinks this time
13:02it's over, historically it's usually not a bad time to buy.
13:06The only investors that I have ever seen consistently make money are those who buy, they're not affected
13:11by short-term price, they don't keep their Bitcoin on any exchange, and they just hold
13:16through it while regularly taking profits as they need to.
13:19I know it sounds boring, but it's true.
13:21Those investors are not going all in, they're not gambling, they're not trying to risk money
13:26they can't afford to lose, they don't get emotional, they just buy consistently and hold.
13:30And that's it.
13:31That's why I've personally taken the approach of investing a small part of my portfolio in
13:35a Bitcoin ETF, with the mindset that one day it could either be worth a million dollars
13:40of Bitcoin, or a dollar.
13:42Either way, I'm okay.
13:43To me, this is the best of both worlds, because I get the upside if it appreciates in price,
13:48and I limit my downside if everything collapses, since I'm not going all in.
13:52And also, if I could offer one more piece of observation, it's this.
13:57Don't buy the hype, and don't sell the fear.
13:59Any time I get that feeling of, ooh, I'm missing out, it's going up higher, it's usually a bad
14:04time to buy.
14:05Just like when I get the feeling that, oh, maybe I should sell because it's going to
14:09keep dropping in price and this is over, usually, so far, that's been a good time to buy.
14:14I've also seen every single, this time is different argument for the last 10 years.
14:19Every time, it is different, every crash is different, no two collapses are the same,
14:24they're for entirely unique reasons.
14:26But so far, we get through these cycles where there's doom and gloom everywhere, Bitcoin's
14:31price does nothing for years after falling 80%, and then out of nowhere, something happens.
14:36Obviously, that's not guaranteed, but you don't get rewarded for something without a
14:40lot of volatility.
14:42The truth is, your chance at making money is directly correlated to the likelihood that
14:46you lose money.
14:47That's really the trade-off you're making, because it's almost impossible to value Bitcoin,
14:51it doesn't produce any cash flow, and it's not promised that the next cycle is going
14:56to look anything like the current one.
14:57The long-term outcome of this is really going to depend on adoption, regulation, technological
15:03relevance, and how it fits into a broader financial system that's still evolving.
15:07That's why if somebody chooses to invest, the rational approach is to size it small enough
15:12so that any fluctuations don't have any impact on your life.
15:16Assume that any drawdowns are going to last a long time and are going to be extremely uncomfortable,
15:21and avoid relying on it for things that so far just hasn't proven to be, like a hedge
15:25against a recession.
15:27Bitcoin could certainly be a growth asset with asymmetric upside, but it's not a shortcut,
15:32it's not a replacement for long-term investing, and it's not a requirement to build wealth
15:36long-term.
15:37That's why I think at the end of the day, discipline matters more than conviction, position size
15:42matters more than price targets, and consistency matters more than timing.
15:46If that works out, then patience gets rewarded, but if it doesn't, then you've limited the
15:51downside.
15:52I know that's not exciting, but that's how you stay in the game long enough for your investments
15:55to eventually have a chance to pan back out.
15:57So with that said, thank you so much for watching, make sure to hit the like button, subscribe,
16:01and don't forget to leave a comment down below because I am at my computer right now, responding
16:05to as many comments as possible, so if you want to leave a comment, great, thank you so
16:08much, and until next time.
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