00:00Almost 23 million more deaths could take place across the world because of a sharp drop in aid.
00:07A study published in The Lancet, conducted by IS Global, that's the Barcelona Institute for World Health,
00:13found across 93 low- and middle-income countries, the effect of humanitarian aid being withdrawn will be catastrophic.
00:21Montefrancis has this focus on the hard facts.
00:23When Elon Musk took a chainsaw to the federal bureaucracy last year,
00:31one of the big casualties was the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID.
00:37The agency's effective shutdown meant the cancellation of thousands of health grants,
00:42which researchers at Boston University estimate in just six months led to the preventable deaths of 600,000 people,
00:50mostly in sub-Saharan Africa.
00:52That event was seen as a turning point, and now a report in The Lancet Global Health
00:57is making a staggering prediction based on a huge drop in global aid.
01:02The authors forecast that if the trend continues by 2030, that 22.6 million people could die
01:09from preventable causes across dozens of low- and middle-income countries,
01:14including 5.4 million children under the age of five.
01:18Places such as Yemen, where millions of people are currently living in displacement camps,
01:24braving not only a harsh winter, but also a lack of international aid.
01:28We're suffering from the cold and freezing rain.
01:33When it rains, it comes inside the tent, and I have children who might die from the cold,
01:38so I cover them with plastic bags.
01:40While the Trump administration's cuts to foreign aid represent the largest piece of the pie,
01:45the report also found that the UK, France, and Germany had slashed ODA,
01:50or Official Development Assistance, in 2024, for the first time in 30 years.
01:56Researchers found that during the first two decades of the 2000s,
02:00ODA prevented deaths from HIV-AIDS by 70 percent
02:04and reduced by more than half deaths from malaria and malnutrition.
02:10Monty Francis with that roundup.
02:12Let's bring in Davide Rossella, who's a social epidemiologist and global health researcher
02:16based at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, IS Global.
02:20He is the author of the report on the extent of the damage caused by the aid cuts.
02:25Cuts primarily, as Monty's report was saying,
02:27led by U.S. President Trump abolishing U.S. aid,
02:30the foreign humanitarian aid project, but also the situation made worse by cuts
02:35introduced by the UK, France, and Germany.
02:38Davide, it seems that the established world, the rich world,
02:43in some way shutting the door, turning its back on those in need.
02:49Unfortunately, yes.
02:51And what we can say also that this represents a very small portion
02:57of the global GDP of these countries,
03:00because things that around 0.2 percent, 0.3 percent is just for ODA
03:07in the major donor countries.
03:11So when you, this 10 percent, you will have at the end just 0.03 percent
03:17of GDP that you have saved.
03:20But what we are showing with this data is that you are literally,
03:25unfortunately, killing millions of people.
03:27And one of the things...
03:28Including millions of children.
03:30I'm sorry, Davide, I spoke across you there.
03:32I will endeavor not to do that again.
03:34One of the things is that people who make these kind of statements about cutting back
03:38often talk about how much they need to look after their own country.
03:42But in a sense, that is, I think, self-defeating.
03:45And most economists would agree that if you don't invest in other countries
03:48and bring in those countries up, you don't create any markets.
03:52You don't create commerce.
03:53You don't create business.
03:55There are several arguments, OK?
03:58Not only the commerce, of course, and I would say also, first of all, solidarity and humanity.
04:04Also considering that our past colonial experience and also the fact that this country
04:10is paying enormous amount of money in debts, often to us.
04:15Also the net financial flow of African, sub-Saharan Africa is actually of money going out from them
04:22to paying our net, to paying the debt, the public debt, yes.
04:27But besides this, I think we have to consider this in, first of all, humanitarian effort and solidarity.
04:35But also, secondly, in terms of preventing new pandemics.
04:40Consider that a great part of this money is dedicated to strengthen the healthcare system
04:48and also epidemiological surveillance systems.
04:52And if we don't strengthen this system, it's not impossible.
04:57The next pandemic will come from sub-Saharan Africa and will be sooner than later.
05:02But also in terms of migration, now we are all worried about migrants from sub-Saharan Africa,
05:09but the more impoverished they are and the higher is the probability that they will try to escape and arrive here.
05:20And besides many other considerations like soft power, soft political powers and others.
05:27So really, the advantages of investing this minimal amount of GDP per year are really by far offsetting the cost itself.
05:45You've mentioned sub-Saharan Africa.
05:47Is that the region of the world that is worst affected by these cuts?
05:51Because clearly, you can make a case for all manner of places which had those resources.
05:57They've been taken away and they've been very badly affected.
05:59But is that sub-Saharan area the worst affected, do you think?
06:04Not only.
06:05We know, for example, that recently have been cut 300 primary healthcare units in Afghanistan, for example,
06:14for a shutdown of USAID.
06:16But we cannot take other countries which are also outside of sub-Saharan Africa in an extremely vulnerable condition.
06:23But yes, of course, the sub-Saharan Africa is probably a region of the world with most vulnerable situations
06:30and where healthcare systems and other protection system depends and rely on foreign aid.
06:38One of the arguments that some very wise people in the West who have lots of money make in order to cut this aid,
06:48and they justify it by saying, well, it's encouraging these countries to help themselves.
06:53Surely that is not such an easy thing to do, is it, David?
06:56I'm seeing the expression on your face.
06:58This kind of thing, I think, really exposes a real ignorance or even cruelty in the way that aid is cut,
07:05expecting countries to then help themselves.
07:07From one day to now, another is impossible.
07:11So really, if you reason in this way, and I think it makes sense to do this,
07:16but with a real transition strategy.
07:19I was in Mozambique recently, and they didn't have any antibiotics for children in the rural area
07:26because now USAID was responsible for transporting these antibiotics from the central ministry to the rural area.
07:35And, you know, we have many, many stories of underneged children left without any food supply or patients with HIV-AIDS without any antiretroviral therapy anymore.
07:49So really, you cannot do this from one day to another.
07:53You need to prepare a transition strategy.
07:55It's not what has been done.
07:57These are really being interrupted in a dramatic way.
08:02We felt, the majority of the time, we felt even negotiating with countries, you know, without advising them.
08:09Totally then, from one day to another, this is going to happen.
08:12We are going to close this, this and this.
08:14David, we need to leave it there.
08:17There is so much more we could say, but I think you've really given us a real slice of what is happening
08:21and certainly something for all our viewers to consider.
08:25David Resale, social epidemiologist and global health researcher based at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, IS Global.
08:31David, thank you for being with us here on France 24.
08:33We appreciate your time and your work.
08:35Thank you so very much indeed.
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