00:00Bangladesh prepares for its first election since the overthrow of the government of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024.
00:06She is in exile in India. The former leader has been sentenced to 10 years in absentia,
00:12along with her niece Tulip Sadiq for their alleged corrupt role in a township project.
00:16But there are still those who predict a comeback for the controversial former leader.
00:21It was, of course, the angry youth of Bangladesh that brought about change in August 2024.
00:26Their protests forcing Sheikh Hasina out of power, into exile.
00:31Has the change that young people demanded started to emerge?
00:35August Hackinson with this report.
00:40Bangladesh's 13th national election carries particular significance.
00:45It marks the first time in more than 15 years that many citizens say they're eager to return to the polls.
00:52This election is important because we are going through a transitory period.
00:55We are shifting from a revolution to a stable situation.
00:58So to bring stability, we need an elected government.
01:01It's been 18 months since student protests spiraled into a nationwide uprising.
01:07After a brutal crackdown, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government fell, ending 15 years in power.
01:14Now many of those Gen Z protesters will be able to vote for the first time in an election seen as credible.
01:20And political parties are eager for their support.
01:25Young voters make up a large share of the electorate.
01:29While many approach the election with hope, others remain skeptical.
01:33The parties, the political parties have proposed many reforms and many ideas.
01:39We all appreciate that, but we want to see groundwork.
01:42The uprising has turned fruitful for a handful of people only, despite the fact that its essence was to retrieve our democratic demands and traditions.
01:54For many young people, jobs remained a top priority as Bangladesh struggles with high unemployment.
02:00Others are calling for accountability and an end to corruption.
02:04With Sheikh Hasina's party barred from contesting, the political landscape has opened up to new contenders.
02:11Her long-time rival, former Prime Minister Khalida Zia, died last year.
02:16Zia's party, though, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, is leading in opinion polls.
02:21August Hackinson with that roundup.
02:24Let's get a deeper perspective regarding Bangladesh's election.
02:29It's taking place on February the 12th.
02:31We're joined by Asif bin Ali, a geopolitical analyst at Georgia State University.
02:35Asif, thank you so much for joining us here on France 34.
02:37We appreciate your time.
02:38And I'm interested to hear your take on the current situation.
02:42If I was to say to you, who will win the election?
02:45Could you give me a name right now?
02:46Thank you, Marko, for inviting me to your show.
02:52Based on the kind of surveys we are seeing, it is likely that BNP is going to win the election.
03:00But, of course, the winning would not be very easy.
03:02I think there would be a serious fight between BNP and Jamaat-Islami.
03:06And so my take is most probably BNP is going to make the win.
03:11But Jamaat will get a significant number of seats in the upcoming parliament.
03:15Do you think that the young people, certainly the voices we're hearing in our report, those young people, they seem to be fed up with the traditional parties.
03:25Do you think they are seeing the kind of change that they want to see happen in their country?
03:31See, right now the election is happening not only over the issue of reform, but also over the issue of stability.
03:39So Bangladesh is going through serious security threats, especially the law and order situation is not under control yet.
03:46And there are, you know, different forms of violence across the society.
03:51Economy is also struggling.
03:53So considering all those points, now a larger section of the society is also looking for stability and elected democratic government taking over the country and providing those.
04:02At the same time, there is also demand for reforms among the younger and also the youth section of the society.
04:09They don't want to see Bangladesh walking back towards the previous structure where the division of power was not as structured as it's supposed to be in any modern state.
04:20So, of course, there is the competition between these two wish.
04:23But given the situation, what matters is, and for traditionally speaking, for Bangladesh, it always wanted stability and security.
04:32So definitely if any political party who would be providing both a certain amount of stability and security, at the same time, some promised reforms is likely to meet some of the expectations.
04:46But also I am aware that our society is also facing a certain kind of populism and a populist politics is taking over many of the socialist spaces.
04:57So satisfaction may not come as we expect very soon.
05:00Do you have a sense, though, that if these changes can be made, if stability is established, if there is an end to corruption, and that is not something that happens overnight, the jobs market might improve.
05:13If the opportunities might be there for the young people who were so angry that they took to the streets to get rid of Sheikh Hasina.
05:21I think whoever comes in the next government, they have to provide because Bangladesh's political environment has changed.
05:29After the 15 years of Aumili government, and out of which the 10 years was pretty much autocratic, now people are demanding something more.
05:38So you see, they are seeing this amazing world and the facilities of the West in their mobile phone.
05:44But when they come out of their home, they see not a good street.
05:49They don't get like good quality food and those kind of things.
05:53So there is this imbalance between what they see in the media and what they experience in the day to day life.
05:59And that imbalance, to some extent, cause a good amount of dissatisfaction among the larger section of the society.
06:07Now, considering that, of course, the future government needs to work on to reduce corruption.
06:14Now, Bangladesh is a society, you know, like reducing corruption is often become a promise.
06:19Even when this government came, the interim government came after the departure of Sheikh Hasina, this government also promised that they would reduce the corruption.
06:28But we haven't seen much effort of doing so.
06:31So in Bangladesh, reducing corruption is more of a political slogan, the end of our delivery.
06:36And I think whoever comes in the future government, they need to deliver it.
06:39And if they could do that, that may help to, you know, to ensure more equitable distribution of the wealth that the society is generating for the last couple of decades.
06:51And that may help significantly improve the quality of the people's life.
06:56But right now, if like, for example, I do keep contact with the local journalists and the people who are working there.
07:03What I have seen is that people want job, people want better life, people want better health care.
07:08And these are the things that they want.
07:10But at the same time, people are also like many people are also encouraged by populist rhetoric.
07:15So it's very difficult to see which one they will prioritize over the time.
07:20Service over emotion.
07:22Now, that is something that we have to wait for some time to see.
07:26And briefly, Asif, Sheikh Hasina, some people talking about a comeback.
07:30The report pointed out that that's not going to happen this time.
07:33But is that still a possibility, you think, or is she spent now as a political force?
07:39I think it's also like Sheikh Hasina's son, Mr. Shahjib Bajadjoy, while speaking to Al Jazeera interview, said like Sheikh Hasina has, in a way, it's a retirement for her.
07:51It's a forced retirement, of course.
07:53And I don't think she would be able to return in the politics.
07:57However, Al-Milig will return in politics, given that the party has significant support among the population.
08:05And at least over the, you know, all the acceptable elections, if we look at in the last 54 years of the Bangladesh history, we will see that this party has secured around 35 to 40 percent of seats.
08:16It has formed the government.
08:18It has won over elections.
08:21And still now there are a good number of supporters in Bangladesh for Al-Milig.
08:25So Al-Milig, as a party, will return eventually in politics.
08:29However, Sheikh Hasina, it's very unlikely that she will return in politics.
08:34Maybe she needs to hand over her leadership to someone, might be from her family or someone from the party.
08:39Maybe that the future would be a deciding factor.
08:43But I don't think Ms. Hasina would be able to return to the politics in the way that she used to be.
08:49The election's set for February the 12th.
08:52Asif Ben Ali, thank you so much for your analysis.
08:54Do keep a date in your diary for seven days' time.
08:57I hope we'll speak again regarding developments on voting day.
09:00Asif Ben Ali, due political analyst at Georgia State University,
09:04they're speaking about the political situation in Bangladesh a week ahead of the election.
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