00:00With this trade deal near the finishing line, do you see the rupee appreciating against the dollar in the near to medium term?
00:08If you had to, what range do you anticipate that the trade would settle at over the next couple of months?
00:15Right. I guess the rupee is the question. Is the RBI going to cut, right?
00:196 will know the answer, I guess.
00:21Yeah, absolutely. I actually think it will hold just because I think, you know, if you look at the rupee, it was depreciating to 92 to a dollar against the picture where the dollar was depreciating was the worst effects in Asia.
00:36Yesterday, it turned to the best. It appreciated very sharply.
00:40I think that the sentiment is shifting for India, and I think that this trade deal will allow it to have more export income.
00:49And as a result, we'll provide more support.
00:52And I think another part of that equation, of course, is FDI in portfolio flows.
00:57And I think that the portfolio flows shift will also be very helpful, whether it's bonds or equities, because that will provide further support for the rupee.
01:06And longer term, if you look at India, FDI flows are positive, but net is like neutral, right?
01:12If not, sometimes even negative.
01:14I think net FDI should be positive for India, because if it's a country with a lot of potential, it should be reinvested.
01:24And I think this is where the outlook for the rupee remains very dependent on what India also is going to do to unlock more competitiveness, right?
01:32Lowering the tariff is just one area of that.
01:35When you look at Vietnam, what are they doing?
01:37They're throwing lots of money to build CapEx, right?
01:40India is doing the same with the laborless budget, and I think, you know, doing much more, right?
01:46It's finally implementing that labor code they passed ages ago.
01:50So I think continuing to unlock this will be very key for India, because fundamentally, having a competitive market is one where it will attract more capital.
02:01And in fact, and then even for Indians themselves, they don't have to offshore capital to really look for a better return.
02:10So as a result, I am very constructive on the rupee.
02:12I have always a view if you compare with, say, Indonesia, where a lot of the risk premium is more regarding domestic policies.
02:20Much of the challenge for India is really this drag, right?
02:23And suddenly, it just kind of faces that 50% tariff, which is a big shock, to be honest, for everybody.
02:31Basically, Indian watchers, Indians, everyone was quite shocked by this tariff, right?
02:36And I think that huge burden on the rupee is being lifted.
02:40And I think it has a lot more room now to kind of trade more in line with its fundamentals.
02:45And I think that will gain support.
02:47Will it appreciate significantly against the dollar?
02:50I don't think so, but I do think that there's room for it to appreciate a bit and kind of retrace a lot of the bosses.
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