00:00Amy Gower, Lead Metals Commodity Strategist at Morgan Stanley,
00:02writing, we don't think prices have peaked.
00:05With geopolitical risk, positive signals from central banks and ETF buying,
00:08we highlight our bullcats.
00:10Pace 5,700 for the second half.
00:12Amy joins us now for more.
00:13Amy, good morning.
00:14Just to clarify.
00:15Is that the second half of this week or the second half of this year?
00:19It's the second half.
00:20Amy, let's get into that call.
00:22We have moved so, so quickly on the precious.
00:25Have we got a new driver here, given developments over the last week?
00:29Yes.
00:30Yeah, look, I think there's multiple drivers working together.
00:32So, of course, we should mention geopolitical.
00:35Political risk and all of the uncertainty that we have at the moment,
00:38I think that is driving investors to.
00:40Towards precious metals in particular,
00:41and especially given prices that they're performing so well, I think.
00:45That is providing additional price momentum.
00:47We also got a bit of dollar weakness.
00:49The last few.
00:50Days, and that is always a tailwind for commodities,
00:53making them cheaper for non-dollar.
00:55And then I think while we're still in this,
00:57when will the Fed cut rather than if the Fed will cut?
01:00That's also a broader tailwind.
01:02But the key thing, I think, also has changed that's why.
01:05Flagging is around central bank behaviour.
01:07So, we've always thought of central banks thinking about gold.
01:10As a percentage share of their reserves.
01:12And, of course, that means as gold prices rise,
01:14you would.
01:15Think that they would slow the pace of buying
01:17because the price is kind of doing the work for them.
01:19But we.
01:20We had something really interesting from central bank of Poland
01:22about a week ago saying that now.
01:25We're now targeting 700 tons of gold to an absolute tonnage amount of gold.
01:30Which would imply about 150 tons of buying.
01:32So, for context, Poland was the largest buyer.
01:35already last year, this would be about another 50% buying on top.
01:38So, if central banks are.
01:40just thinking about having gold regardless of the price,
01:43then that could also keep that.
01:45kind of structural buying at a higher level than we were previously expecting.
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