00:00Générique
00:05...
00:10...
00:15...
00:17U.S. Air Force has launched a major...
00:20...multi-day military exercises...
00:22...across the Middle East.
00:24Jets are moving...
00:25...carriers are repositioning...
00:27...allies are joining in...
00:29...and...
00:30...and...
00:31...once again...
00:32...the question is getting louder...
00:33...is the U.S. preparing for war...
00:35...with Iran...
00:36...or...
00:37...trying to stop one.
00:39In late January...
00:40...the U.S. Air Force confirmed...
00:42...it has begun...
00:43...large-scale readiness exercises...
00:45...across the Middle East.
00:47These are not symbolic drills...
00:49...they're designed...
00:50...to test the ability...
00:51...to rapidly deploy...
00:53...disperse...
00:54...and sustain...
00:55...to combat airpower...
00:56...in a fast-changing...
00:57...battlefield.
00:58This comes as...
01:00...as the U.S. quietly...
01:01...but significantly...
01:03...builds up military power...
01:05...in the region.
01:06F-15E Strike Eagles...
01:08...are being deployed...
01:10...an aircraft carrier...
01:12...strike group...
01:13...the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln...
01:15...has moved...
01:16...from the South China Sea...
01:17...to the Arabian Sea...
01:18...and Gulf of Oman...
01:20...placing it...
01:21...within striking distance...
01:22...of Iran.
01:23Thousands...
01:24...of additional...
01:25...groups...
01:26...are now in theater...
01:27...and key allies...
01:28...are involved...
01:29...including British...
01:30...RAF...
01:31...Eurofighter Typhoons...
01:32...deploying to Qatar.
01:35On paper, U.S. Central Command...
01:37...says this is about...
01:38...deterrence...
01:39...and readiness...
01:40...not an imminent attack...
01:41...but...
01:42...context matters...
01:43...and the context right now...
01:45...is escalating tensions...
01:47...with Iran.
01:48Why now?
01:49U.S.
01:50Iran tensions...
01:51...relations...
01:52...between Washington...
01:53...and Tehran...
01:54...are understood...
01:55...severe strain...
01:56...Iran's nuclear program...
01:58...continues to advance...
02:00...Iran-backed proxy groups...
02:01...remain active...
02:02...across Syria...
02:03...Lebanon...
02:04...Yemen...
02:05...and Iraq...
02:06...and inside Iran...
02:07...the regime...
02:08...is facing...
02:09...domestic unrest...
02:10...in protest...
02:11...with reports...
02:12...of executions...
02:13...and crackdowns...
02:14...drawing international...
02:15...outrage...
02:16...President Trump...
02:17...has publicly...
02:18...emphasized...
02:19...U.S. military...
02:20...strength...
02:21...and his openly...
02:22...weighed options...
02:23...against Iran...
02:24...behind the scenes...
02:25...however...
02:26...the story gets...
02:27...more complicated...
02:28...the back channel...
02:29...that stopped...
02:30...strikes...
02:31...multiple reports...
02:32...indicate that...
02:33...Iran's foreign...
02:34...minister...
02:35...quietly contacted...
02:36...Steve Whitcoff...
02:37...Trump's...
02:38...special envoy...
02:39...the communication...
02:40...reportedly included...
02:41...assurances...
02:42...that executions...
02:43...of protestors...
02:44...would be halted...
02:46...that message...
02:47...reached Trump...
02:48...and according to...
02:49...several sources...
02:50...planned U.S. strikes...
02:51...believed to be imminent...
02:53...were called off...
02:54...Iran's...
02:55...and later denied...
02:56...sparing executions...
02:57...contacts...
02:58...were suspended...
02:59...and tensions...
03:00...surged again...
03:01...at the same time...
03:02...Israeli Prime Minister...
03:04...Benjamin...
03:05...and Yahoo...
03:06...reportedly urged...
03:07...Trump to delay...
03:08...warning that...
03:09...limited strikes...
03:10...might fail...
03:11...to weaken...
03:12...the Iranian regime...
03:13...and could...
03:14...even backfire...
03:15...and political side...
03:16...officials also...
03:17...joined discussions...
03:18...this suggests...
03:19...something critical...
03:20...the military builds up...
03:22...is real...
03:23...but diplomacy...
03:24...is still alive...
03:25...so why announce...
03:27...exercises...
03:28...instead of launching...
03:29...a surprise...
03:30...strike...
03:31...because...
03:32...in military strategy...
03:33...visibility...
03:34...can be a weapon...
03:35...by openly deploying...
03:37...carriers...
03:38...jets...
03:39...and allied forces...
03:40...the US sends...
03:41...a clear signal...
03:42...we're ready...
03:43...but...
03:44...you still...
03:45...have time...
03:46...to step back...
03:47...surprise attacks...
03:48...carry enormous...
03:49...risks...
03:50...in the military...
03:50...in the Middle East...
03:51...Iran's proxies...
03:52...could strike...
03:53...US bases...
03:54...the Strait of Hormuz...
03:55...could be disrupted...
03:56...Israel...
03:57...Saudi Arabia...
03:58...and Gulf states...
03:59...could be pulled in...
04:00...public pressure...
04:01...allows room...
04:02...for diplomacy...
04:03...and reduces...
04:04...the...
04:05...chance...
04:06...of uncontrolled...
04:07...escalation...
04:08...could this...
04:09...turn into...
04:10...a major war...
04:10...the risk is real...
04:12...any strike...
04:13...on Iran's...
04:14...revolutionary...
04:15...guards...
04:15...nuclear facilities...
04:16...would almost...
04:17...certainly retaliate...
04:18...oil prices...
04:19...could spike...
04:20...global shipping...
04:21...could be hit...
04:22...but experts...
04:23...say something...
04:24...important...
04:25...the likelihood...
04:26...of this...
04:27...turning into...
04:28...World War III...
04:29...remains low...
04:30...for now...
04:31...Russia...
04:32...is tied down...
04:33...in Ukraine...
04:34...China...
04:35...is focused on...
04:35...Taiwan...
04:36...and mutual...
04:37...nuclear deterrence...
04:38...discourages...
04:39...direct confrontation...
04:40...the Trump...
04:41...administration...
04:42...appears...
04:43...focused on...
04:44...maximum...
04:45...pressure...
04:45...and not...
04:46...maximum...
04:47...destruction...
04:48...using...
04:49...sanctions...
04:50...military posture...
04:50...and back...
04:51...channel talks...
04:52...to force a new deal...
04:53...so...
04:54...what we're seeing...
04:55...right now...
04:55...is not a countdown...
04:56...to war...
04:57...but a high-stakes...
04:58...game...
04:59...of...
05:00...pressure...
05:00...signaling...
05:01...and restraint...
05:02...the danger...
05:03...isn't intention...
05:04...it's...
05:05...miscalculation...
05:06...because...
05:07...in a region...
05:08...this volatile...
05:09...one wrong move...
05:10...can change...
05:11...everything...
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