00:00I was just looking at the year-to-date. This is just year-to-date performance.
00:05In the past few weeks of January, gold is up 17% already. Silver...
00:10It's up 52% already just in the first few weeks of this year. Is it...
00:15Is it possible that this momentum can continue?
00:20I think our view at the moment is that...
00:25As the momentum continues, the fact of the matter is that we are...
00:30You know, seeing, you know, kind of global shifts that we haven't experienced in generations.
00:35I would argue something like the weaponization of the, you know...
00:40Stockpile of treasuries that's held by Europe and other, you know, kind of regions or nations.
00:45Where they effectively, you know...
00:50At least consider selling those, you know, treasuries to...
00:55Fly pressure back onto the US, for instance. Some of those trends or...
01:00What kind of factors I think are going to be driving these precious metal prices even higher.
01:05Yeah. We were looking at a really interesting chart.
01:10Yesterday about central bank holdings of gold.
01:13And for the first time, their holdings of gold...
01:15In aggregate, has overtaken their holdings of sovereign bonds.
01:19Really interesting.
01:20To see that happen.
01:21How owned do you think gold is by...
01:25And silver.
01:26By institutional investors.
01:28Is there scope for more...
01:30Participants to enter into this space as well?
01:32Yeah.
01:33I think that...
01:34Yeah.
01:35I think that...
01:35You know, gold has an allocation to sort of a generalist portfolio manager...
01:41It's still quite low.
01:43You know...
01:44Our view is that...
01:45You know, it's...
01:45effectively, some portfolios basically hold nothing and others
01:50or, you know, maybe a couple of percent, so we're of the view that
01:55there's still, you know, still an increasing appetite for gold is a safe haven.
02:00You know, if you just think about the relative sizes of these asset losses,
02:03if, you know, if trading...
02:05And the U.S. dollar used to be the safe haven asset and move away from...
02:10You know, the gold market is a lot smaller, so they're kind of...
02:15The relative size of those safe havens, in our view, you know, is going to...
02:20Maybe what's driving the move in gold, you know, it's sort of an ancient...
02:25Safe haven, and, you know, I think investors are going to continue looking at...
02:30Yeah, ancient safe haven. I like that.
02:35So, obviously, we're very focused on the spot price moves, but...
02:40If you want to get exposure to gold, to silver as an...
02:45Equities player, presumably you're looking at some of the miners,
02:48how are you screening for...
02:50What's the value right now?
02:51Yeah.
02:52So, we invest...
02:55Mainly in the miners.
02:56And so, you know, I think the free cash flow...
03:00Generation at current metal prices are really compelling.
03:04That's definitely...
03:05A focus for us.
03:06And we think that most of these companies, you know...
03:10I've got the message over the last 10 years or more, you know, from the last...
03:15Down cycle that investor or shareholder...
03:20Returns is a priority.
03:21So, we're seeing, you know, good flow through from...
03:25Free cash flow into dividends.
03:26You know, some of it's going into share buybacks as well.
03:30So, we think that there's a strong return of...
03:35A free cash flow that's going to continue to come to share all this.
03:40And what's also interesting, you know, is that in our view, the generalist investor, you know, has...
03:45Only started to focus on that.
03:47You know, I think if you compare gold equities to some...
03:50Other sectors or some other companies, it's very compelling on the free cash flow side of the...
03:55And the stocks are not cheap, you know, compared to something like the tech...
04:00Sector, for instance.
04:01Interesting.
04:02Okay.
04:03Okay.
04:04Okay.
04:05So, let me also ask you about other metals because it hasn't...
04:10It hasn't just been gold and silver, precious metals, but also some of the base metals have really had a good run too.
04:15The likes of copper and aluminum.
04:17How much of that is just...
04:20Short-lived in nature, you know, some supply disruptions.
04:25The...
04:25Versus, say, more structural and the fact that there really is a lot of demand for these types of...
04:30Base metals for the transition, for the build out of data centers.
04:35And the accompanying infrastructure that goes with it.
04:38Well, certainly a...
04:40Part of the move up in copper and, you know, even base metals like aluminum are...
04:45Are driven by the fundamentals.
04:46We saw a supply outages last year.
04:49I mean...
04:50One of the biggest mines in the world, Grasberg in Indonesia, you know, actually had an...
04:55An incident at a very unfortunate event, but it basically meant that there was a supply...
05:00An outages for a, you know, a big part of last year.
05:03And it continues into this.
05:05So, a large part of the copper move, in our view, has been driven by the fundamentals...
05:10But at the same time, if we look at the, you know, probably the biggest...
05:15Demand driver for copper over the last decade or two has been, you know, Chinese...
05:20Consumption.
05:21And that looks to be down at the moment.
05:23So, we do, you know...
05:25I see kind of a mixed picture for some of the base metals at the moment.
05:29The moves are...
05:30What have been fundamental, but, you know, also exacerbated in our view by...
05:35Something like tariffs, you know, something like, you know, defence spending...
05:40And security of supply as well.
05:43I think another, you know...
05:45Interesting commodity is aluminium, where you don't have a lot of supply addition coming on.
05:50You know, in 2026.
05:52And so, there's still a demand...
05:55A story that's, you know, supposed to be growing at a healthy clip.
05:58And so, we are...
06:00We are quite constructive in that space.
06:02You know, copper might be...
06:03We are quite constructive in that space.
06:04You know, copper might be...
06:05You know, copper might be...
06:05You know, sort of under pressure if the Chinese demand doesn't come back quickly.
06:10But...
06:10At the same time, the kind of new economy drivers such as electrification is obviously also...
06:15Helping the cause.
Comments