StanChart's Cooper on Gold, Silver Losses

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00:00We're starting things off with a closer look of what we, well, what looks to be still,

00:05we're in the midst of this sell-off across the precious metal space. And joining us now

00:09is the Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered, Suki Cooper, joining us

00:13from New York. Suki, good morning from the Asia-Pacific. It must have been an extremely

00:16busy Tuesday for you, so thank you so much for taking the time. Do you, what do you think

00:23happened? Let's start simple. What do you think happened overnight?

00:25There's a combination of factors here. From a technical standpoint, we can see that prices

00:32have been trading in overbought territory since the start of September. But equally, the rally

00:37has been fast and furious. It's been quite a different momentum that we've seen in this

00:42last leg higher from around about 3,500 to when prices breached 4,000. It wasn't the same

00:48cadence of demand that we had seen previously. And the universe of investors in the gold

00:53space had expanded quite rapidly. And we were seeing a rapid accumulation in terms of ETP

00:58flows. So gold hadn't really had a chance to test that flaw. And then coupled with that

01:03technical overbought territory, we'd also, we were ahead of the Diwali-related buying as

01:09well. And that was impacting both gold and silver. Now Diwali took place on Monday. We're

01:14potentially likely to see a slowdown in some of that appetite as well. So it's likely a

01:18combination of factors. And coupled with that, we've also saw some positive rhetoric around

01:24U.S.-China trade talks. It says a combination of factors, but we think technical selling has

01:29been the main culprit behind the downward leg that we've seen.

01:34Yeah, I really haven't seen moves like this ever, it seems, Suki. I'm just wondering,

01:40what are you looking at in terms of levels right now? What's considered a healthy sort of retreat

01:45and pullback here? And what's resistance? What's support?

01:51That's a great way of looking at this sell-off. We are forecasting a quarterly average of $4,000

01:56per ounce for the fourth quarter. We do expect gold to regain its open momentum going into 2026,

02:02and we're expecting further highs next year. So we're expecting Q1 prices to average $4,200,

02:08but for the year as a whole, $4,488 per ounce. But in Q4, we think that currently we are seeing

02:15something of a healthy correction. We wouldn't be surprised if we see prices dipping below $4,000

02:20per ounce. From a technical standpoint, I think that provides the best guidance in terms of what

02:25sort of levels we could be looking at in the near term. And $3,900 is the next technical support.

02:31And then beyond that, we look at levels around about $3,700 in terms of where that support could

02:36come. I would say that normally in the gold space, we look to the physical market to set that downward

02:41support. But we haven't really had a chance to test that flow. The physical flows that we saw in terms

02:47of official sector demand, in terms of demand from China and India, haven't really been tested on the

02:52downside. So that will be crucial in terms of where that demand materializes. India's market typically

02:57would be still responsive if prices were high but stable. But if they're high and volatile, then we tend

03:04to see the market stepping away.