Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00The German Chancellor is due in the White House later today, Frederick Merz, set to meet Donald
00:04Trump in the Oval Office. But questions are swirling over what kind of reception
00:08Chancellor will get. This after recent uncomfortable exchanges between Trump and
00:14South Africa's President and even Canada's Prime Minister. Plus, who can forget that
00:18test exchange between the U.S. Vice President, Donald Trump, and Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky.
00:24Trade, NATO, and support for Ukraine expected to top the agenda. For more on what we can expect,
00:31we can go across to Christine Bertzin, Managing Director, Geostrategy North, at the German
00:37Marshall Fund of the United States. Thank you so much for joining us here on the program today.
00:41Now, Germany's new Chancellor is set to walk into the Oval Office, which has become a sort of lion's
00:45den, if you will, even for the United States' top allies. What, according to you, will be topping
00:52the agenda for Merz? Is it going to be trade? Is it going to be NATO? What is it?
00:57Both of those issues are going to be at the top of the agenda. And the question is whether they're
01:02going to be seen as two sides of the same coin or separate issues. First and foremost, Merz is here
01:08to get to know Trump, and Trump will be here to get to know Merz. The German and American relationship
01:14in the Trump administration the first time around was in hot water, and Trump always has very tough
01:20language about Germany. He feels that Germany has freeloaded or taken advantage of the American
01:27security umbrella, and that German industry is trying to out-compete American industry. So there
01:34are defense and economic concerns. But unlike Chancellor Merkel, the last time Trump was president,
01:43Chancellor Merz is a businessman. He is somebody who comes from a world that is not all that different
01:48from the world that Trump comes from. And so the question is, do they get along personally? Is Trump
01:54willing to say, it looks like Germany is moving in the right direction? The recent defense announcements
01:59are certainly a way of showing a new Germany. But a trade conversation is going to be difficult.
02:06And July 9th, we have the anticipation, if it's not delayed again, of course, of high tariffs coming in.
02:13So you will have a tariff conversation, but I don't think we are past a point of contention over.
02:19And a defense conversation, that should be able to go pretty well. What the entire combination of that
02:25is, and what the tone of the meeting will be, is the big question, and that we're going to have to
02:30see at the end of the day. Because Germany is the EU's largest economy. We know that as Merz is in town,
02:38Washington is trying to negotiate with the European Union to strike a free trade agreement. But how does Merz
02:45go about explaining to the US president that the EU is not there to screw the US, but in fact, was created to
02:51prevent war on this continent?
02:55If I was Merz in that room, I wouldn't try to re-prosecute history. I wouldn't try to approach this in a
03:03didactic or in a school teacher manner at all. I think that is going to lead to failure. Instead,
03:09I'd look at the future. What is Europe trying to achieve in its economy? But more importantly,
03:14what is America trying to achieve? How does it get more competitive? How does it outcompete China,
03:20which in many ways is the primary objective that Trump has? And if Europe can be part of that solution,
03:26if Europe and the United States together can build something that Trump wants,
03:30that's a good place to have a conversation. That's a reason not to impose high tariffs,
03:35but instead to reduce trade barriers. If Merz is able to create a conversation in which Trump
03:42thinks it's a good deal for the US, that is a primary objective. Trying to lecture is just going
03:50to result in failure.
03:51Interesting point. But you never know if Donald Trump does pull out things like he did for the
03:55South African president and does a little show and tell in the Oval Office. Now, one of the first
04:00things that the Trump administration did when it returned to power was dispatch J.D. Vance to
04:06Munich. His speech at the Munich Security Conference left this continent stunned, if you will.
04:14And it exposed deep rifts when it came to things like free speech versus far-right extremism here in
04:21Europe. How will Merz handle whatever Trump throws at him on this front?
04:26It's an interesting question whether Trump is going to be bringing up some of these values
04:32questions. The issue of free speech, the issue of restriction on what can be said online, the issue
04:38of access for more far-right parties to traditional political fora. This was especially notable as a
04:45conversation topic during the Munich Security Conference because it was before the elections. And Vice
04:52President Vance is far more tied to these kinds of issues than Trump himself is. Will right now this
05:02kind of values issue come up because we are not in a pre-election time anymore? I am not sure. And would
05:10President Trump himself use this forum in the Oval Office to talk about values and speech rather than
05:17business trade deals or defense just a few weeks before the NATO summit? Again, that doesn't seem
05:24to me to be at the top of the priority. Of course, it is possible that there will be remarks about
05:30Germany's lacking access or depriving certain political parties from access. But I do not foresee
05:39that being the main point or the main event of today's Oval Office interactions. There is a difference
05:47between the various corners of this administration. And I think that that combined agenda for what can
05:54be done next is something that Trump should be willing to focus on. Well, he may have some good
06:00news on the defense front because earlier today, Christine, stay with us. We had the U.S. Defense
06:05Secretary who was attending that NATO defense ministers meeting. And he said that the military alliance
06:10was close to consensus on achieving that 5% target down the line. Take a listen to what he had to say.
06:16This alliance, we believe in a matter of weeks, will be committing to 5%, 3.5% in hard military
06:23and 1.5% in infrastructure and defense related activities. That combination constitutes a real
06:30commitment. And we think every country can step up. So Christine, let me bring you in once again. So if
06:36Chancellor Mertz can show Washington that, look, we're willing to up our military, our commitments
06:44to military spending, that could potentially be a win for him. But another thing that has happened
06:50since in the past few weeks is that the AFD, the far right party in Germany, has been labeled an
06:57extremist organization. This is something that members of the Trump administration have openly
07:02said they have been critical over. How does Mertz go about telling Donald Trump,
07:07this is our business, stay out of it, without schooling him?
07:14Schooling him again is the major risk. I think pointing to the successes that Germany is having
07:19and showing the path that Germany will take to try to develop a deeper and more competitive global
07:27economic relationship and also a deeper defense relationship with Germany taking over a far
07:33greater share of responsibility in Europe should be the focus. I think that it will be very hard to
07:39have a conversation about the AFD because the perception of the party is very different on both sides of the
07:47Atlantic. Will Trump want to see more of the AFD line come to the center in politics in Germany? That's
07:56certainly is possible. And so what would be smarter for Chancellor Merkel to talk about are more of
08:05the issues that the AFD is focused on. And to say that he probably is curious, interested in solving
08:11them too, which is of course what the CDU and the government is doing. The AFD came in at the high
08:19numbers that it did in this past election because of its focus on migration as one of the issues. And of
08:24course, the government and Chancellor Meretz has been focusing more on this in a far tougher line than
08:32others have. And so showing progress on the issues and going away from a discussion of the parties
08:38themselves would be to Germany's benefit and to Meretz's benefit. Now, the war in Ukraine is also expected
08:45to feature this, of course, comes a day after we had the US president who held a phone call with Russia's
08:52Vladimir Putin, who suggested that Moscow is going to respond. He said it was a good conversation, but
09:00it will not lead to, but not one that is going to lead to immediate peace in Ukraine. Washington has made
09:07it quite clear that it's tired of its role in trying to strike a peace deal between these two sides,
09:14which it doesn't look like it's going to bear any fruit and has essentially passed the buck
09:19to Ukraine and Russia to figure it out. What happens if the US stops its military support to Ukraine?
09:27Will Meretz try and say, look, Europe can foot the bill and do this by itself?
09:32Meretz is already showing leadership on Ukraine. This is from the very first days of taking office,
09:40traveling to Kyiv, to hosting Zelensky in Berlin, to the increase in defense spending. These are clear
09:48signals how significant the issue of Ukraine is for Germany. This is also something that the Trump
09:55administration would like to see. What's not clear at all is what it would mean for the United States to
10:00be done with Ukraine? Of course, we hear this sharp rhetoric, but does that mean that the United
10:07States is done being the chief negotiator? Is the United States done providing the support that has
10:13already been paid for or that Ukraine is paying for on the market for its own defenses? Is this a
10:18question of intel sharing, which is incredibly important? None of that is clear in Washington.
10:24And so Germany showing leadership, showing where it can step up and being part of a conversation
10:32on the US contributing where the US is essential is an important piece of what should be happening in
10:39the Oval Office today. That is, it is a tricky situation. I feel that this is a harder conversation
10:46to have than a conversation on NATO. From a European perspective, Ukraine is integral to European security
10:53conversations. From the Washington side, Ukraine is one thing and NATO is another. And so as we just
10:59heard from Secretary Hegseth and the happiness that there is in this administration going into the NATO
11:06summit, that same happiness probably does not extend to the Ukraine conversation. And the Europeans are
11:15going to have to balance the progress they're making on the 5%, doing everything right on defense,
11:21with also ambition on Ukraine. And to try to navigate how to make sure that to show that they are
11:30taking responsibility, taking leadership on providing defense and assistance to Ukraine, while also
11:37showing that there is a role for the United States that the United States should be providing.
11:42Okay, it'll be an interesting meeting in the Oval Office in a couple of hours. Christine,
11:47Bertine, we're going to have to leave with that. Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.