00:00Arctic air is abundant and we have a lot of people in the dark, over 2 million people, about a million plus addresses without power, but over 2 million actual people in the dark.
00:11Many rely on electric heat and without strong, decent, robust insulation in some parts of Mississippi and Louisiana, a lot of frozen pipes are going to be a big problem.
00:21A lot of people in a bad spot here through the next few days, so hopefully you are able to stay safe and you're looking out for some in your life who may not be able to look out for themselves here.
00:31Dangerous situation, you know, a lot of people love snow, winter storms, very exciting if you're tuned in to us here on the AccuWeather Network, maybe you have enthusiasm for the weather and snow storms are what get a lot of us into this here.
00:43It sort of breeds a lot of passion for the weather for us, but a lot of people are going to be in a bad spot here with the freezing rain that has left so many without power.
00:53The freezing rain is exiting some of these areas in the Gulf Coast region, still escalating into the Carolinas tonight, but we're in a dangerous position here when the lights go out and when the Arctic air shifts in.
01:04So let's take a look at these long-lasting power outages.
01:06This is what we're really concerned about through Monday night and the next few days here.
01:12It's really, again, we're kind of conservative with the through Monday night.
01:15There are areas, we'll probably be able to shrink the map a bit, but there may be areas that we're still highlighting, perhaps in more narrow zones, and I'm being a little imprecise in how I'm drawing this here,
01:26but approximately these areas where we have a huge volume, 80-plus percent of some counties here in western Mississippi, without electricity.
01:35So it may be weeks for some to get power back.
01:39Large concentrated areas here also into parts of Louisiana, a little bit south of Shreveport.
01:45And this evening, we're going to see an escalation of outages in some of these areas here around Charlotte.
01:52As we saw sleet, a lot of sleet early on.
01:54There's a band of precipitation moving in that's going to be heavier, greater rainfall rates or precipitation rates of sleet changing to freezing rain.
02:01So you might see a quick two-tenths of an inch of ice in one hour's time.
02:04That's a big deal.
02:05That's a big, big deal.
02:07And then we have other areas where the power grid has been sort of partially temporarily restored after Helene a year and a half ago.
02:15But the nature of the lines that are up may not be the permanent utility poles that we're hoping for.
02:25It just takes time to get everything back on a permanent basis.
02:28So some of those will be more flimsy and more apt to drop more quickly.
02:33So one thing for this week, record-breaking cold shifting across the south.
02:38And I'm going to take us into the models here a little bit.
02:40But just some broad headlines first.
02:42Ice and snow melt will be very slow to happen.
02:44But the biggest concern is the electricity being out for so many people in areas without good insulation where we're facing Arctic air.
02:52And again, there are people who are going to put generators in unsafe places and use them.
02:59And it may cost them their lives here with carbon monoxide poisoning.
03:02You can never, ever use a generator inside.
03:04Never use it in the garage.
03:05Make sure if you're using it outside more than 20 feet from your home.
03:08And make sure if you're really dialed into the weather, you know the wind direction.
03:12Make sure the exhaust may be swept away from your home so it does not reenter.
03:16And again, you've got to be safe with this kind of thing.
03:21It's an underestimated danger.
03:23When we take a look at what's going on upstairs here, I have this map zoomed way out.
03:27Because I want to talk about basically cross-polar flow here.
03:31We're dealing with some air that's coming down.
03:33If you, you know, a lot of the time people wonder why do we refer to the wind by not the direction in which it's blowing,
03:40but the direction from which it's coming.
03:42If we say you've got a south wind, it's blowing to the north.
03:45But it's a south wind.
03:46The wind is coming from the south.
03:48And the valuable part of this, meteorologically, is that the wind is transporting air from a location from which it came.
03:54So that's why we refer to a northwest wind as a wind that's directed to the southeast,
03:58but it's coming from the northwest.
04:00Meteorologically, it's transporting air.
04:02It's an importing wind, importing air from way, way, way up near the North Pole in this case.
04:08Northern Canada.
04:09So, you know, we can trace some of these streamlines.
04:12We've got cross-polar flow for the most part.
04:14It's not perfectly right across the pole, but it's awfully close in some cases.
04:18And, you know, you've got some pretty chaotic winds around a big storm way out over parts of western Alaska.
04:24But a lot of the air that we're facing this week here in Georgia is coming from northwestern Canada,
04:30from the northwest territories, and from the Yukon.
04:33And that's going to remain the case for a while.
04:35Look at this deep trough.
04:36This really continues to come in here.
04:38Just reinforcing all the way down into north Florida Friday.
04:41We've got some really cold air.
04:43So, again, this flow is not going to change.
04:47It's going to get reinvigorated at times this week.
04:50And when we take a look at the surface, here are your temperatures.
04:54Monday morning.
04:55This is a model forecast of 16 below zero near Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri.
04:59Some of you guys associate that with summertime fun out on the boat there.
05:03If you're from St. Louis or Springfield or maybe Kansas City, you go up that way.
05:07And 16 below zero.
05:09There's a lot of ice there on Lake of the Ozarks.
05:11Below zero into northwest Texas.
05:1416 below zero into areas around Duluth.
05:17And you're built for that there in Duluth, but they're not built for it farther south.
05:207 below zero in Fort Smith, Arkansas in this GFS model here to an area of western Arkansas.
05:28Exceptional cold.
05:2912 below possible.
05:30Charlottesville, Virginia.
05:32Bundle up.
05:32Awfully, awfully cold.
05:33Later in the week, later in the week, still persistent cold Thursday morning.
05:378 or 9 below zero, Cincinnati and Dayton.
05:40Friday morning.
05:4116 below zero in Pittsburgh.
05:43Is that our official AccuWeather forecast?
05:45No, but I'm showing you the models.
05:47I don't think we're going to hit 19 below in State College.
05:49I think the models may be a little too aggressive.
05:52But you see the nature, the character of the air mass.
05:54So let's take a look at a few AccuWeather forecasts.
05:56I don't want to promote model forecasts.
05:57I just wanted to give you an idea of what we're dealing with here in the models.
06:01Early Monday morning, the record low in Dallas.
06:05This is for the 26th of January.
06:08Back in 1904, it was 12.
06:102026, 5.
06:12We're going to shatter that by 7 degrees in Dallas.
06:15Thankfully, Dallas, it was mainly sleet.
06:16So you're okay power-wise.
06:18Other areas, though, you're going to be dealing with some very big dangers there.
06:21Tuesday morning, D.C., 6.
06:23That would tie the record for the 27th of January.
06:27And it's going to be exceptionally cold out there.
06:28So the cold holds in a severe way through the last week of January.
06:32Our long-range forecast team, led by Paul Pastelok, forecasting colder than the historical
06:38average weather for most of the central and eastern U.S. for February as well.
06:43It's a tough winter.
06:44It's a tough winter.
06:44We're not done yet.
06:45And that's your forecast feed.
06:47Okay.
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