00:00The third quarter print from a GDP point of view I think was particularly strong and I think we had a very good budget, medium term budget, which again anchored the micro stability when it comes to the cooperation between our fiscal and monetary policies.
00:17So I think that was also something that we really welcome from the business community. I think the Minister of Finance supporting the central bank's approach of lowering inflation targets.
00:28So that we think around about 2028 we start seeing an economy that benefits from lower inflation, lower rates and through the structural reform program hopefully there is a GDP uplift because I think our economy just has not been growing at the level that it should.
00:48So a combination of those factors I think are providing good momentum for South Africa.
00:52From 2028 the president has a GDP growth target of three and a half percent by 2030. Do you think it's achievable?
00:58I think it's achievable. I mean I think we are on about this year because for 2025 GDP growth we're looking at about one and a 1.4 to 1.5 percent.
01:08Probably staying at similar levels for next year. Improving a bit in 2028 getting closer to two.
01:16But the key thing is I think the implementation of the structural reforms should provide a kicker to a number of sectors in the economy.
01:24So I think if one looks at a GDP potential, you know, two percent is still way down, but it will have to take concerted steps in maintaining the momentum reform.
01:37I think beyond the political era in which the president is in, I think the next government is also going to have to commit to continue with the program of reforming the economy.
01:48I think we've seen success now in energy, in transport and logistics, but there's still a lot more work to be done in the South African economy.
01:55Mary, the diplomatic relationship between the United States and South Africa is still quite chilly.
02:01And we saw that around the G20 last year, towards the end of last year.
02:05There's still a lack of clarity on tariffs.
02:07How much downside risk does that pose to your outlook for South Africa in the absence of de-escalation?
02:13So I think if you if you think about the period that's elapsed from Liberation Day and I think from when South Africa had to deal with a lot of the challenges on tariffs, it's quite a long time.
02:24I mean, that actually those businesses have had to think about what do they do?
02:28So there's, you know, I think quite a bit of the GDP growth negative impact that's come through in 2025 where some of those businesses are carrying on.
02:38So in the absence of a trade deal and I think being at a tariffs of 25 percent, you know, some of those businesses seem to be seem to be getting bad.
02:46So I think the more time elapses, the more we understand the impact of what happens.
02:51I mean, of course, it's not ideal. You would prefer a different a different situation.
02:56So, yeah, I mean, I think if you look across the world, if you look at what Europe has to contend with.
03:00Yeah. And we all have to navigate, I guess, really similar, uncertain political environment.
03:06And I think for South Africa, there is this merit anyway in I think in in lying low, because really, I think there are a number of problems that the number of challenges and opportunities in the South African economy that we can be focused on.
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