00:00Taiwan's economy had a blowout in 2025, with official estimates putting its GDP growth
00:06last year at over 7 percent, the highest in 15 years.
00:10And here in Taipei, economists are feeling upbeat about its 2026 as well.
00:14The Chonghua Institution for Economic Research, or SEER, says 2025 growth was driven by manufacturers
00:21front-loading in response to U.S. tariffs and the global AI boom.
00:25This year, it says growth will exceed 4 percent, with steady inflation and a stronger new Taiwan
00:31dollar.
00:32We forecast that the economic growth rate is 4.14 percent.
00:36Of course, it's lower than this year, but it's a bit lower than the current year.
00:41Actually, the economic growth rate is pretty good, and we forecast that it's 1.64 percent.
00:50We forecast that it's 3.33 percent.
01:06Domestic demand is expected to be the main driver of growth this year, while continued AI demand
01:12and lower U.S. tariffs will help keep up the momentum.
01:16Still, they say, nothing is certain.
01:19The economy faces risks that could change the direction of things this year, most involved
01:24U.S. policy under President Donald Trump, and developments in the AI industry, which could
01:29seriously impact Taiwan's tech export-dependent economy.
01:33Experts say industry, especially non-tech sectors, need to adapt to the new era to succeed.
01:38Taiwan's fortunes could be held by the trade deal it reached with the U.S. last week.
02:02Sierra economists say the deal's tarot reductions will boost competitiveness.
02:07They praise what they call its favorable semiconductor conditions, as well as an agreement on two-way
02:12investment supporting emerging industries.
02:15But they also call for expanded domestic demand and industrial collaboration to strengthen
02:19resilience.
02:21Even with the new U.S. still, global uncertainty is still a key factor for 2026.
02:27Businesses here are sure to keep an eye on things as they look to navigate the year ahead.
02:31Lufe Li and IT in Taipei for Taiwan Plus.
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