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00:56O que é o que é o que é o que é o que é?
01:26game here is to finally topple the Ayatollah's regime. Is that enough? Well, I think the targets
01:32to look at, obviously taking out whatever air defences remained for Iran or new ones the
01:38Russians may have supplied, but then I would look at striking the headquarters of the Revolutionary
01:44Guard, military bases of the Guard, the Basisi militia that has been instrumental in repressing
01:51the population, the Iranian Navy, the nuclear program, the ballistic missile program. And I think
01:57that would further debilitate the regime and it would show to the opposition, we're not trying to
02:02harm Iran itself. It's the regime that's the target. It would give the opposition clear indication that
02:08the U.S. and the rest of the outside world are watching. So you think, Mr. Bolton, that we could
02:13be looking at the start of the end of the regime? Is that the end game for the U.S.? Well, I hope so.
02:19I mean, we've been close to this point before. There's been enormous discontent in Iran for a
02:25variety of reasons, ethnic clashes. The young people are unhappy. Women are unhappy since the
02:33murder of Masyamini over two years ago. The economic situation is obviously extremely bad. But the outside
02:40world has basically sat back and done nothing now and permitted the regime to suppress the opposition.
02:47I think if we show that we are very much interested in what happens and favor the fall of the government,
02:57that that could have a very positive effect inside the country.
03:00And you mentioned the outside world. Do you think Europe also needs to step in here? What can it do?
03:06Well, Europe hasn't done much of anything, unfortunately. I think they should be working
03:10with the United States. We should all be working more with the opposition to provide resources,
03:14communications, for example, to help them coordinate better inside Iran. I think the situation is
03:20different now for a couple of reasons. Number one, the protest after the murder of Masyamini
03:26for neglecting to wear the hijab that the Ayatollahs prescribed was not just an issue about the dress code.
03:35The regime's basis of legitimacy is that it speaks the will of God.
03:39And when people say, well, we don't think wearing the hijab comes from God, it comes from the Ayatollahs,
03:46you're just not attacking that issue. You're attacking the very legitimacy of the Ayatollahs
03:51themselves. And that influence is still there. Plus, this time, the economic circumstances in Iran
03:57are really bad, worse than ever. And that's why the protests are so widespread, countrywide at this point.
04:05We hear Trump talking about coming to the aid of the Iranian people. We heard similar language when
04:11it came to Venezuela. Yet, Mr. Trump seems to be completely comfortable at the moment with having
04:17Nicolás Maduro sit in a New York prison while his vice president, Delsi Rodríguez, is at the helm in
04:25Caracas. She is a key figurehead of the Maduro regime. So, when you look at Venezuela, do you think
04:32Trump is really interested in changing autocracies into democracies? Or is it really at the end all
04:38about oil and the strength of the dollar and so on? Well, it's not really clear what Trump is
04:44interested in. I think we're on the verge of squandering an opportunity in Venezuela. I'm glad
04:49Maduro has been captured. But the regime in power in Caracas is the Maduro regime without Maduro. And if
04:56we're not careful, that regime will entrench itself. And the people will still not be able to take
05:02control of the government. And it will also mean that there's not going to be any substantial external
05:07investment in Venezuela in the oil industry. So, the poverty there will continue. Trump himself
05:12tweeted to the Iranian opposition, take control of your institutions. Well, that's what he should be
05:18saying in Venezuela as well. That is how you help overthrow the repressive regime.
05:24He is due to meet the opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, very soon. Do you think that
05:31could change anything? Or is Trump really not interested in a proper democratic transition in
05:36Venezuela? Well, I think this is a good opportunity for Machado to say, look, if you don't have
05:41representative government in Venezuela, you're never going to have a rule of law society. You're going
05:46to be subject to the arbitrary will of the Maduro regime. And those circumstances mean foreign
05:52investors are not going to come in. They're not going to risk, especially in the oil sector,
05:57billions of dollars of investment that some dictator can just grab away from them. So, for Trump's own
06:03purposes, putting the opposition in Venezuela in power is important. And perhaps she can persuade or
06:09explain to him why that's important. If he fails to do that, is that a strategic failure for the U.S.,
06:15do you feel? I think it could well be. I think what the regime in Caracas is doing now is shoring up
06:21its support from the from the military, the police, the colectivos, the motorcycle gangs that they use
06:27to intimidate the population and strengthening their position, talking to China about China
06:33exploiting Venezuela's oil. So the moment's not lost yet, but it's just a clear mistake to stop with
06:40Maduro. And on Greenland, Trump has recently said that anything less than U.S. control of that
06:47territory, which belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark, is unacceptable to him. Do you think he's willing
06:54to use force, military force, to seize that territory? Ultimately, I don't think he will. I think
07:02just the talk, though, of using military forces costing the U.S. in terms you can't even calculate,
07:08in terms of trust and good faith and our reputation. And if we can say there, there's a new poll out
07:15today that shows exactly eight percent of the American people favor the use of force to take
07:20Greenland. I'd like to ask that eight percent if they even know where Greenland is. Yet he seems to be
07:25doubling down, Mr. Bolton. He seems to be turning his back on diplomacy. His language is very clear. What
07:30could this mean for the U.S. reputation if he does move ahead with a seizure? And what could it mean for
07:36the NATO alliance? Well, I think it's a disaster for the United States, as I say, that we're even
07:41talking about this. And it would be infinitely worse if he did try and use military force. I think
07:47there'd be a political earthquake in this country. There is essentially zero support. And certainly
07:54in Congress, it would be a matter of grave concern. And I think many people believe that if it happened,
08:00it would be the end of the NATO alliance and a grave, a grave, doing grave damage to U.S. national
08:06security, not to mention the other NATO allies. In the end, will we just see something more
08:11transactional? Do you think he'll opt for a deal, for example, by paying a lump sum to Greenlanders or
08:17striking some kind of agreement with the Danish government? Is he pushing here for a sale? Well, he will
08:22want to be able to declare victory on something because after all, the world is divided into winners and
08:28losers and he always wins. But it doesn't make it any easier to get to an agreement, which legitimately
08:36does concern U.S. national security, Canadian security, Danish security, the security of the
08:42entire NATO alliance against the growing Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic Ocean. So a quiet
08:49approach to this, I think, could really move fairly rapidly based on the 1951 Danish-U.S.
08:56defensive Greenland treaty. I'd like to ask you about Ukraine. Trump has been pushing for a very
09:02rapid deal to end Russia's war. It doesn't seem to be coming. Europeans have pledged to very specific
09:09security guarantees by now. Do you think Trump is willing to do the same? Well, Trump may be willing
09:16to give security guarantees, but since it's still not clear he would even uphold Article 5 of the NATO
09:22treaty, words on a piece of paper are not the real answer here. The only way you can have
09:28a guarantee of Ukrainian security is if Russian troops are moving backward rather than moving
09:34forward. So I'm worried about the whole ceasefire approach. I'm afraid it may give Russia an advantage
09:41and that in Europe, people think if we can get a ceasefire, that's a real answer. It's not. It just
09:48gives Russia a pause to regroup, rebuild its army, refurbish its economy. Putin wants a Russian
09:54empire. He's told us this for 20 years. And in that kind of nationalist thinking, there's no Russian
09:59empire without the whole of Ukraine. That's what Putin wants. Do you think there's a risk here that
10:04Trump is losing patience and will sell out the Ukrainians? Well, I think he's losing patience
10:08because it's not getting him the Nobel Peace Prize that's really the end objective for him on almost
10:14everything we've been talking about. I don't know that it would necessarily mean he would sell out
10:19Ukraine. He might just withdraw from the issue because it's not making him a winner. And if
10:24if the U.S. continued to supply intelligence to Ukraine, if we continued to sell weapons and
10:32ammunition to our European NATO allies who could pass it on to Ukraine, that that I think might be
10:38sufficient to keep keep Ukraine going. That's not an ideal outcome from my point of view. But I think
10:44if we could get that minimum, then let let Trump walk away. Final question, Mr. Bolton, you know,
10:49Trump promised to pursue an America first policy, a less interventionist approach. Some would say
10:57he's doing the complete opposite. How would you rate his foreign policy so far in his second term,
11:05from one second term, excuse me, from one to 10? How would you grade it? Well, around a two or three,
11:11I think a lot's incomplete. One thing we haven't talked about is his tariff policy, trade issues,
11:17which I do think are important for national security. They've been a complete disaster
11:21and harmed the United States in many ways, not just economic, but in reputational and political terms
11:28as well. So I don't think Trump really understands what what he's doing. He doesn't have a national
11:34security grand strategy. Everything is transactional, episodic, ad hoc. And that's why he can completely
11:41reverse what he said during the campaign and not even see that he's contradicting himself. I think
11:47he's causing himself political difficulties with his own base for what he's doing. But that that's
11:52his problem. Mr. Bolton, thank you so much for your time. Well, thanks for having me.
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