00:00With the latest data, let's cross over to Mike McKee for more. Hey, Mike.
00:03Good morning, John. Well, we'll see if we can't move the needle a little bit for the equity markets with retail sales coming in up six tenths of a percent after being flat.
00:12That's the headline flat in the month of October. These are November numbers.
00:17So we're behind, remember, because of the government shutdown.
00:19X autos up half a percent after four tenths gain and X autos and gas up four tenths as well.
00:27The control group, which is what we really care about, up four tenths of a percent.
00:32That's up. That's down from a six tenths gain, revised lower for the month of October.
00:38The PPI numbers are not out yet. They're slow to come out.
00:43Here we go. Producer price index increased two tenths of a percent in November.
00:49Now, remember, these are September to November numbers because there were no October numbers, just like with CPI.
00:54The PPI for the year, let's see if we have an annual basis number, three percent for the 12 months ended in November.
01:05And that's the headline. Now, if you want to take the core, which we usually consider the X trade one,
01:13the index for final demand, less foods, energy and trade services, up two tenths of a percent in November.
01:19And for the year, up three and a half percent. That is the largest 12 month increase since rising three and a half percent in March.
01:28So on the basis of the PPI annual figures, it looks like you're not going to be cutting interest rates anytime soon.
01:36And with relatively strong retail sales, it seems like inflation is still going to be on the menu.
01:43Mike, as you indicated, somewhat dated data, but are we in a decent picture of momentum we had into year end and into the new year, a decent picture of the overall economy?
01:52Well, probably not in terms of the data that comes in for the overall economy, but it gives us a direction.
02:00The January meeting, they've already said they're probably not going to be cutting.
02:04And I would assume that this kind of data seals that.
02:06And then they'll have two, three more reports on all of these things before the next meeting in March.
02:12So they'll have a much cleaner read by the time we get to the end of the first quarter.
02:17Just quickly here, motor vehicle sales were up by a percent.
02:23Sales of parts and cars, furniture down a tenth of a percent, building materials up 1.3 percent, groceries up just a tenth of a percent.
02:31And remember, we saw in CPI that the grocery price indexes went up.
02:36So since all this is calculated on a dollar basis, that's kind of interesting.
02:40Gasoline sales up 1.4 percent, clothing stores up nine tenths and department stores flat, department stores down 2.9, general merchandise flat.
02:50This is November numbers.
02:51So these would have been the Black Friday numbers, and they don't seem to be as good as you might have hoped for that period of time in terms of holiday gifts.
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