00:00Most important number of all to the markets is the unemployment rate and to the Fed, 4.3 percent,
00:05no change from last month. And so this report is probably not going to make a lot of waves at
00:1020th
00:11and C Street in Washington. Terms of payrolls, 115,000, which is better than expected, but down
00:17from a revised up, 185 in the month of March. The two-month net revision, though, negative 16,000,
00:26so we lost some in February. Change in private payrolls, 123,000. That's from a 190,000 revised
00:35number for the last month. And then average hourly earnings, two-tenths percent, which is a little
00:41less than thought, 3.6 percent for the annual rate there. Labor force participation rate drops to
00:4961.8 from 61.9 percent, which suggests something about the unemployment rate. As always, health
00:56care leads the pack with 37,000 jobs created. That's a little higher than the 12-month average
01:01of about 32,000. That is where jobs are these days. Transportation and warehousing increased by
01:0830,000. We've certainly seen a lot of increase in people buying on the Internet, et cetera. So that's
01:16an interesting development there, if that keeps going up. Retail, 22,000, partially offset by job
01:23losses in department stores, down 7,000. Federal government, the administration's effort to pair
01:30things back has continued. Federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April. And since
01:36October 2024, the federal government employment down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent.
01:44So we are seeing the Doge stuff work out. In terms of what Lisa was saying, I was talking to
01:52a lot of
01:52Fed people here at the Hoover conference last night, and they are keeping an eye on the average hourly
01:57earnings because they want to make sure that the inflation that we're seeing isn't feeding into
02:02people's psychology where they're going and asking or demanding raises at this point, especially with
02:07the labor market loose right now. It is a relatively good situation for employers. They don't have to
02:14pay up. The question happens when AI takes over and people lose jobs. What happens to incomes then?
02:21But the Fed is going to look at this whole report and say it's not inflationary. And it is, as
02:26Lisa said,
02:26very stable.
Comments