00:00Let's start with the New York Giants and why? Why not at this point? Kevin Stefanski, John Harbaugh,
00:05Cliff Kingsbury, Mike McCarthy, all listed as opportunists to take that job for the New York
00:10Giants. But if we do look at the marketplace, the leader in the clubhouse right now is Kevin
00:15Stefanski. He's listed at a 41% chance, followed by John Harbaugh at 35%. If we just take a look
00:22at the favorites here, Joe, Stefanski or Harbaugh, in your mind, who's more likely to get that job?
00:28This is the classic recency bias trap that we see, Donnie, in the market, because you're
00:35basically paying a brand name tax because traders see John Harbaugh, that name, right? Super Bowl
00:42winning head coach. They see him hit the market and immediately they buy. But Kevin Stefanski at 41
00:49cents, it feels like is the insider play because the market is pricing him as the safer potentially
00:57maybe already agreed upon option. But if you look at it, put those two together and the market is
01:03telling you there's a 76% chance that the next coach is between one of those two guys, Donnie.
01:09So maybe a fade against maybe, let's say, Mike McCarthy at six cents might not be or the field,
01:17in fact, might not be a bad hedge here as well. Again, when you're looking to look at investment
01:22here, it is like the stock market. These things are trending and changing on a day to day basis.
01:26Kevin Stefanski is on a high right now where John Harbaugh, even when he was right released from
01:30the Ravens, he was supposed to be the guy in line like, oh, the Giants can't miss out. He's actually
01:34down 21% on his chance just over the past day or so. The one guy that I thought was interesting,
01:40even as of yesterday, was Cliff Kingsbury. He was trading at a 10% price point here if you wanted
01:46to buy. He's down to 5% now. So just in that one day, if you invest $100 on Cliff Kingsbury,
01:52it pays back $1,667. If I had to take a no right now, it actually would be Harbaugh at 66 cents,
02:00Joe. If I look right now, a $100 investment would pay you back 152. Where there's smoke,
02:05there's fire. And yes, they want Harbaugh, but he's so much of a commodity around the rest of
02:08the NFL where you have, let's just call it eight jobs open. I'm going to play the field and say,
02:13no one John Harbaugh would get my money.
02:15I'm with you. I mean, listen, if 76% chance they're telling you that the next coach is going
02:23to be one of those two guys, Harbaugh, Stefanski, right? If a mystery candidate comes available,
02:29like a college coach, you know, selling the field against those two, it's yes, it's high risk,
02:35Donnie, but also very high reward. And you and I both are on the same page with that risk.
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