- 6 weeks ago
In this edition of To The Point, the big talking point is the upcoming 2026 West Bengal elections.
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00:00Bengal, 2026, the ultimate battle.
00:15Can BJP breach Mamata's fortress?
00:30Power, Polarization and Patronage.
00:41Is Bengal the BJP's next big prize?
00:55Didi's high-stakes bid for Term 4.
01:00Will anti-incumbency catch up with Mamata?
01:09Who has the edge?
01:11That's the big question on India today.
01:16Hi there, you're watching To The Point with me, Maria Shakil.
01:20It's day one of 2026.
01:22So wishing everyone a very happy new year.
01:252026 begins not with resolutions, but with the drumbeat of one of the fiercest state contests India has seen.
01:34A battle for West Bengal, where every constituency from the tea gardens of North Bengal to the mills of Hooghly will decide if three terms of Didi's rule has exhausted its mandate,
01:49but hardened into an unbeatable fortress.
01:53This is no ordinary poll.
01:55It's the crucible where BJP's national ambitions face their sternest regional test after narrowing the gap to just 77 seats in 2021.
02:07Now gunning for outright power amidst scandals, RG Cor, outrage and voter fatigue.
02:15For the Trinamul Congress, it's about defending a patronage empire built on welfare and Muslim consolidation.
02:23Even as infiltration rouse and SIR revisions ignite a deepening communal binary.
02:30So what's at stake for the Trinamul Congress first?
02:33Mamata Banerjee stakes her legacy on retaining power through her charisma, her personal charisma.
02:42A vote share hovering at 47% in polls and populist counter punches that neutralize anti incumbency.
02:51Defeat risks splintering the party machine, exposing her successor Abhishek Banerjee to leadership questions and ceding eastern India to BJP total dominance.
03:06The special intensive revision flashpoint framed as voter deletion by TMC infiltrator purge by BJP could swing 47%.
03:17In fact, 47 seats in Muslim heavy belts.
03:23So what's at stake for the BJP now?
03:25The prime challenger to Mamata Banerjee after winning the Bihar.
03:29Bihar, important state, Bihar, with a historic mandate in 2025, Prime Minister Modi, remember, sent a message that the river Ganges is now heading to Bengal.
03:42A victory for the BJP will prove it can crack Bengal's left liberal firewall through Hindu consolidation, matua, outreach and relentless attacks on corruption from teacher scams to civic failures.
03:57Home Minister Amit Shah's blueprint demands booth level blitzes and infiltration as the wedge issue while bridging internal rifts with figures like Dilip Ghosh.
04:10Of the five states that go to polls this year, BJP winning Bengal and retaining Assam will ensure a badly bruised opposition after repeated electoral losses will be eyeing Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
04:28Now for the third player, left and Congress.
04:32The left Congress duo face existential crisis with their footprints in fact shrinking in Bengal.
04:40CPIM's Bengal fortress.
04:42Remember, 34 years, unbroken years until 2011 now risks statewide irrelevance.
04:50That's what the left faces in Bengal unless they reclaim industrial belts like Hooghly or Assan Sol where youth unemployment bites hardest.
05:02The Congress, which has already been squeezed to Adirajan Choudhury's lone Beharampur holdout, must decide, merge into India block irrelevance or pivot as anti-BJP secular bulwark.
05:18A 2026 wipeout ends their Bengal revival dreams.
05:25And joining us now, Tuhin Sina, national spokesperson of the BJP.
05:30We have Sajjan Kumar, political analyst.
05:32Manajit Mandal is a political analyst.
05:35Meeta Chakravarti, congress spokesperson.
05:37Tawseefur Rehman is the TMC spokesperson.
05:40Tuhin Sina, what is giving BJP that confidence that you'll be able to breach that crucial percentage to ensure that you form the government?
05:51Because, of course, you are hovering around 39, 40 percent, but you have to cross that 5 to 6 percent.
05:58You need another 5 to 6 percent.
05:59Where will that come from?
06:01Well, good evening, Maria.
06:02Good evening, everybody.
06:03A very happy new year to everybody.
06:06You know, the reverse countdown of Mamata Banerjee government in Bengal has begun.
06:11The anti-incumbency is at an all-time high.
06:17There are three or four factors responsible for it.
06:19Crime has been uncontrollable for this government.
06:23Moreover, after every act of criminality, serious criminality or a rape, Mamata Banerjee has this tendency of victim shaming to shield the culprits who some way, one way or the other, seem to have some connection with TMC.
06:38We saw that in the RG Corp case.
06:40We saw that, you know, in Asan Sol, where for the first 24 hours she fudged the details of the case.
06:46Number two, her principal opposition to SIR stems out of the fact that she has been shielding illegal migrants.
06:54They have been legitimizing illegal migrants.
06:56And we saw many of those cases where fake Aadhaar cards were given to this on the basis of fake Aadhaar cards.
07:02They made voter IDs.
07:04And, you know, so, you know, today she might be on a temple inauguration spree, but that shows how precarious her situation will be till the time.
07:14Mamata Banerjee apologizes for her stand on CAA, till the time she apologizes for her opposition to Vakht Amendment Act.
07:23No Hindu in Bengal would forgive her.
07:26In fact, what happened to Deepu Chandra Das in Bangladesh about 10 days ago, we saw that happening to Hargobind Das in Murshidabad.
07:35And what preceded that incident, Hargobind Das was assassinated.
07:39Just 10 more seconds.
07:41Mamata Banerjee was provoking the Muslim community against the Vakht Amendment Act.
07:45So, Mamata Banerjee has been complicit in all the violence which Bengal has seen in recent years.
07:50Okay.
07:51Tawseefur Rahman, is there a sense that, you know, a BJP, which is certainly on a high after their Bihar consolidation, would be going all out in Bengal again?
08:07And you may have managed to put up that fight in, you know, in 2021 and again in 2024, but this time around, it's almost like a tsunami coming your way.
08:19Good evening, Maria, and good evening to everyone, happy to everyone as well.
08:23Maria, this is nothing new.
08:25We have been seeing this tsunami, so-called tsunami in every election from 2014 to 2025.
08:31I mean, we call them as a migratory bird, and we are just focused on our work.
08:35I mean, if you see, if you hear the BJP spokesperson or the leaders or the Home Minister, he is a BJP leader as well.
08:42So, I mean, you see, they will not talk about the development, that we can do what we can do.
08:46They will talk about, again, Hindu, Muslim, Mandir, Masjid, minority, majority, certainty, whatsoever.
08:52But it's okay.
08:53I mean, that's their job to say, and we respect that as well.
08:56But the All-India International Congress, under the leadership of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee,
08:59remains firmly focused on Bengal and the upcoming elections.
09:02Mamata Banerjee has taught Bangla Birodi.
09:04This is why we call it Bangla Birodi.
09:06Birodi.
09:07BJP, he gives them a value lesson.
09:09But again, Maharyat is a very important thing, you know.
09:12The political philosophy of Mahmata Banerjee is very clear.
09:15Lectures are one on the ground, not on social media or media channels.
09:19I mean, since Special Intensive Revisions started in Bengal,
09:22I mean, all in the Primal Congress under her leadership has been fighting boot by boot.
09:26I mean, exposing attempts to legitimate Bengali voters, as you have seen.
09:30You know, there's a consular from Haura.
09:32I mean, he's living, he's a living guy, he's a human being as well.
09:36I mean, he's killed and he's dead.
09:38So, such things coming on, it cannot divert election policies or election philosophy.
09:44Okay.
09:45So, we'll talk about SIR.
09:46But let me also bring in Meeta Chakravarti before I bring in the analysts.
09:50Meeta Chakravarti, is the Congress really in the picture anywhere in Bengal?
09:54Or have you ceded ground completely that you have no hope?
09:58Okay.
09:59First of all, good evening to all your viewers.
10:02Good evening to all my co-panelists as well and a very happy new year.
10:06Of course, we are there in the picture.
10:08Last year we did.
10:09Yes, we did not perform as well as we would have wanted.
10:12But from South Malta, Ishak Khan Chaudhary, not Adirajan Chaudhary, but Ishak Khan Chaudhary got elected and was sent to the Indian parliament.
10:19So, of course, we are very much there in the picture.
10:23As you correctly pointed out in Adirajan Chaudhary's constituency in Murshidabad, as well as in Malta, in Uttodinajpur, in North Bengal, Congress still is holding on to his bastion and to his organizational base.
10:34We do have significant vote share there.
10:36Number one.
10:37Number two, is there anti-incumbency against the TMC?
10:40Of course, there's anti-incumbency.
10:41There are law and order issues.
10:43There's women's security issue, rising unemployment, lack of industrialization, lack of development, lack of jobs being created.
10:50However, our political discourse, which should have been on development issues and holding the current state government accountable for its failure,
10:59is now completely being centered on Topi and Tilak, Mandir versus Mashtar.
11:04A complete binary is being set where development issues completely ignore.
11:09But shouldn't efforts be made that if there is an anti-incumbency vote, what makes you think that it will be the Congress,
11:19that will be the beneficiary.
11:20If there is an anti-Mamta vote, it will be going to the principal challenger here,
11:25where the BJP is firmly placed in being a challenger to Mamta Banerjee.
11:29I do not know on which basis you are saying, because if you see...
11:32I'm speaking about on the basis of the vote share, ma'am.
11:35Okay, so let me...
11:37Vote share, 2021 and 2024.
11:39In both these elections, BJP's vote share was around 39 to 40%.
11:43Yes, please.
11:44Allow me to make my limited point.
11:46If you see BJP's performance in 2019, where they had 18 Lok Sabha MPs and it came down to 12 last year.
11:54But vote share did not decline.
11:56Yes, there was a slight decline in the vote share and definitely a huge decline in the number of representatives that they sent to the parliament.
12:03BJP has been on a decline.
12:06And let me make a very quick point.
12:08A few days back on 24th of December, a migrant worker named Joel Rana from Murshidabad was actually brutally killed, mob lynched in Orissa for speaking in Bengali.
12:19What is our home minister was in this state for three days.
12:23We welcome him.
12:24However, what is the home minister doing about the attack that is happening on Bengali migrant workers in different BJP ruled state?
12:33Bengali is a very proud linguistic identity.
12:36Will you respond to that?
12:37The challenge is that the BJP faces this repeated question from Bhadralok.
12:44That the linguistic identity that Bengal so much relishes is something.
12:49Do you have a problem with someone saying Samashumar Bangla in Assam?
12:52Okay.
12:53A song that was written by Rabindranath de Godd in 1905?
12:56You do not have a cultural disconnect.
12:59You have a cultural disconnect is the charge.
13:03You know, you are asking this question to a party which was founded by a Bengali, Shama Prasad Mukherjee.
13:09Had it not been for Shama Prasad Mukherjee, you know, Bengal,
13:13maybe, you know, Bengal would not have been a part of India.
13:16And even today, you know, our working president Nitin Nabeen Ji went to, you know,
13:23went to Kalibadi in Delhi to celebrate Kalpatru Divas.
13:28They would not even know what Kalpatru Divas is.
13:30So, you know, for us, it is not a political, for us, for us, for us, for us, it is not a political battle.
13:42It is a battle to save the soul of Bengal.
13:45Because the kind of demographic distortion which Mamata Banerjee has brazenly, you know, promoted,
13:51the way she has promoted people like, you know, Humayu Kabir, who now have gone out of hand
13:58and who now, you know, are contradicting Mamata Banerjee himself, herself.
14:02I think, you know, it's about time Bengal's civilizational identity is saved and that is what we are fighting for.
14:07Monajit Mandel is the challenge for Mamata Banerjee now, certainly about ensuring that there is no violence
14:17and also sending the right picture, sending the right message vis-a-vis women's security.
14:24After the RG car incident and, you know, the protests continuing for days,
14:31the investigation being seen as something in which the state government was trying to protect the perpetrators,
14:39is there something that has to be done strongly, a message sent, particularly on the law and order front?
14:46Let me wish Happy New Year to you and all the panelists and also to the audience.
14:52Maria, if you go back to 2020, you know, 2020, 2021, we were on a different platform.
14:59We were talking about something else at that point of time.
15:02How many people are changing sides?
15:04And starting from Mukul Rai to Shubhandi Odhikari,
15:06they were all in a kind of spree to change sides and joining BJP.
15:11I think that was the most challenging time.
15:13I'm speaking purely from the political perspective of a political analyst.
15:17That was a really challenging time for Mamata Banerjee.
15:19But that particular storm, I think, was tremendously overcome by Mamata Banerjee.
15:25Today's Trinambul Congress, with the aid and active involvement of Avisek Banerjee,
15:32and look at the way he has risen in Indian politics for the last five years.
15:36You are talking about Mamata Banerjee.
15:37Fine, Mamata Banerjee is definitely the indisputable leader of the party.
15:41But the actual organization is now being handled by Mr. Avisek Banerjee.
15:49And look at his rise in the last five years, even on the national stage and even on the international stage.
15:55Okay, we'll talk about Avisek Banerjee's role a little later on the show.
16:00But let me bring in Sajjan Kumar.
16:02Sajjan Kumar, in 2021, we had discussed a lot about the Matua voters.
16:08We had talked about how Bengals also has very strong caste identities.
16:15The BJP has managed to retain its vote share.
16:18But where will that extra four to five percent come from that's needed for the party to form the government in the state?
16:25Yes, first we regard to the Matua voters.
16:30This time also, you see on the ground, the sentiment is mixed.
16:34One, in the wake of ongoing SIR exercise, many of the Matuas who came late, say after 2003,
16:42they are facing some difficulty because the CA exercise has not been completed once.
16:48But that doesn't mean that they are willing to go back to TMC.
16:53I mean, the overwhelming sentiment still is with BJP.
16:57That is one, though they are frustrated with the local BJP leadership.
17:01This is one.
17:02With regard to the remaining four to five percent, that's a tough task for BJP to accomplish.
17:08One, because if you see 2021 arithmetic, the average winning margin of TMC against BJP was around 30 to 30,000 votes.
17:19So that was the average winning margin per seat that TMC won against the BJP.
17:24While BJP's victory margin against TMC average on 77 seats was around 14,000.
17:30So certainly, TMC was winning the seats against BJP with a far greater numeric.
17:37But you go on the ground, and I have visited in different parts of Bengal recently, and one thing is there.
17:44The desperation with regard to TMC, the willingness to change, is more consolidated on the ground.
17:53But that doesn't mean that they are willing to trust BJP.
17:57In 2021, people on the ground were quite vocal for change.
18:02Why?
18:03Because they were referring to 2019 Lok Sabha performance of the BJP, and therefore they were more confident.
18:10This time when you see, the reference is 2024 Lok Sabha election.
18:14So certainly, while on the ground, you see a larger sentiment, which is critical of TMC, that includes many of the passion of TMC, in terms of democracy.
18:23Many of the Bhadaloks who were considering BJP as outside of this time, you see a sense of deputism with regard to TMC.
18:30But that somehow doesn't automatically translate into a positive sentiment for BJP in terms of having the trust that the party is capable.
18:40So no to Mamata doesn't automatically become yes to BJP, and there comes the organizational...
18:47And what does it mean then for the third players?
18:51Is there really a third player in Bengal, or should we be seeing this and reading this election as purely a bipolar contest?
18:59It's going to be purely a bipolar. Parties may claim, Humayu Kabir may claim, CPM may claim, Congress all may claim, but voters are quite clear, and that is a pan-Indian sentiment.
19:10They do not waste their vote. They may like CPM for the past track record on certain factors.
19:16But when it comes to vote, it's going to be a TMC versus BJP, and that is why BJP is going to be a default beneficiary.
19:23But to what extent will it be 4% to 5%? Difficult to say at this juncture.
19:28Okay, let's bring in the two challenges, I mean the battle lines here. Tawseef and Tuhin on the screen now, please.
19:38Tuhin, go ahead. The challenge for the BJP, of course, is also coming from within.
19:44That you do not have a very defined state leadership, which is seen as an alternative to a very aggressive and liked chief minister.
19:53She's a popular chief minister.
19:55Barya, you were asking where would this additional 5%, 6% vote for BJP come from?
20:03You know, please understand this is a bipolar contest because Congress is nowhere in the picture.
20:08Congress is as non-existent in West Bengal as they were, as they are in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, you know, and many other places.
20:15So, it's a bipolar contest and similar, it would be quite similar to Delhi.
20:21You know, you saw what happened to Arvind Kejival after being in power for 11 years.
20:25Towards the last few weeks, you know, the effect of anti-incumbency suddenly, you know, it culminates.
20:33It is very visible on the ground and that build up, that build up is already visible in in West Bengal.
20:39Like I said, there are so many factors, the brazenness with which TMC carders, you know, members of the of the TMC have been involved in crime, you know, due to protection from the state government.
20:51The way the way Hindus are being harassed in different parts of Bengal, you know, obviously, like I mentioned, there was a precedent, there was certain there were certain incidents leading to the violence in in Murshidabad.
21:03And of course, you know, that whether it is teachers recruitment scam, whether it is Russian scam, the hordes of cash found out from from the houses of TMC leaders.
21:14Tawseef, it's going to be an important battle for Mamata Banerjee, but then she is not like any other leader or any other regional player.
21:23Everybody knows that Mamata Banerjee knows her craft, her political acumen cannot be is second to none.
21:30She understands what BJP is eyeing for. And that's why they started preparing for the SIR exercise much before.
21:37And even while it was ongoing in Bihar. So we know the preparations which have gone into place for the SIR.
21:43Please go ahead. Your last word here, Tawseef.
21:46It's a very simple process. I'm just not a spokesperson, but I stay on ground as well.
21:51But I have a very big problem. And I'm very sad. Sometimes I feel upset as well.
21:54When BJP starts speaking about Bengal, I don't understand why they do mean Bengal, why they only talk about Hindus,
22:00why they don't talk about nine crore people staying in Bengal, because they are the same people who gave vote to BJP with 18 empty seats.
22:07But they only talk about one community. There are a lot of communities, not only minority or the majority.
22:12There are a lot, a lot of communities. This is where the difference starts.
22:16And of course you are right, Maria ji. We cannot take this election lightly, but not because of BJP.
22:22We even take panchayat, gram panchayat, corporates, MLA, MPs election very seriously, not because of BJP again.
22:29Because this is the same BJP. We are going to go and go. But that's not the problem.
22:34Okay.
22:35Understand one thing. Understand one thing. What about SIR now?
22:39I mean, we also question the selective deployment of micro-observers in West Bengal.
22:43The SIR process underwent several states across the country.
22:46Maria ji, please let me complete.
22:48Apart from West Bengal, it has been conducted in states such as…
22:50Okay. Okay.
22:51We will get enough and more time to debate Bengal, because the battle for Bengal has just begun.
22:57Of course.
22:58It will become sharper and perhaps more interesting.
23:00So, thank you so much.
23:01Wishing all of you a wonderful new year.
23:03Toveen Sinha, Sarjan Kumar, Manajit Mandal, Meeta Chakravarti and Tosifar Rehman.
23:08That's all from me.
23:09All the viewers, have a safe new year and a healthy one and a healthy, prosperous 2026.
23:17Thanks for watching.
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