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00:00Los Angeles Rams and the Atlanta Falcons.
00:02Monday night football night tonight.
00:03Here we go.
00:04The Rams, eight and a half point favorites at the look ahead.
00:07That's down to seven and seven and a half.
00:09Why?
00:09The Rams can't actually win the division or even get a home playoff game right off the bat.
00:14They are a wild card team, which means how hard are they going to play tonight?
00:17Atlanta's already out of the playoffs altogether.
00:19And this total is listed at 49 and a half.
00:21Joe, the spread line.
00:22How do we play this game on Monday night?
00:24Yeah, what are we going to do here?
00:26I'll tell you this, though, what we do know is that McVeigh, not only off a loss,
00:31but McVeigh in the month of December has been an ATM machine, Donnie, with the Rams.
00:36Absolute ATM machine.
00:38I think he's only lost or hasn't covered three games in the month of December,
00:42including last week's game there where they were a favorite.
00:46So I would expect a big bounce back.
00:48And none of us believe that Atlanta is playing for anything other than maybe a couple of jobs here or there.
00:55Yeah, it feels like a get right spot for the Rams who, hey, listen, anything is possible, right?
01:01Although they are out of the running, it sounds like, for the NFC West title and the number one seed.
01:07But that's going to be determined next week between the 49ers and the Seahawks.
01:12Two really good games.
01:13I don't know if we're going to be good games, but at least meaningful games on Saturday in the NFL, Joe.
01:17Carolina and Tampa Bay, both of these teams backing their way into the playoffs.
01:22Tampa Bay is a favorite at home against Carolina of minus three and a total of 43 and a half.
01:27The winner goes to the playoffs and gets a home game in the playoffs because of the division champions.
01:32The loser goes home and disappointed, Joe.
01:35What's your spread line here?
01:38Aren't they both losers in many rights?
01:40No, I kid you.
01:41Line opened up yesterday, Donnie.
01:43We watched it on In Game Live.
01:44Opened up minus four for Tampa.
01:46The hook was available for about a half hour.
01:50It moved down to three and a half, and now it has settled in at minus three.
01:54That total actually opened 42, 42 and a half.
01:57So the total's going up a bit, but the money clearly coming in on Carolina.
02:02Armchair quarterback Monday right here on the early line on the Sports Grid Network.
02:05Donnie right side, Joe Ranier.
02:06It's welcome in.
02:07Tom Vecchio here to start our week in style.
02:09And a big weekend it was, and an even bigger week in week 18.
02:13Tom, how are we feeling today?
02:14I'm doing great.
02:17Craziness, really, from the jump on Thursday.
02:20You know, Joe and I were live for some of those games.
02:22The Lions just simply can't win.
02:23We had an insane game on Saturday night that I just did not see coming.
02:28Crazy game, you know, last night to end things.
02:30And then we have one more tonight.
02:31I'm ready to go.
02:33Yeah, flag football game broke out last night on Sunday Night Football.
02:36But the part I want to focus on, Tom, before we get to the Monday night game tonight,
02:39the four o'clock window yesterday, absolutely fascinating.
02:42The Giants and the Raiders.
02:44Nobody wanted to win this football game, but the Giants didn't get the memo and hung 34
02:49points on the Raiders, basically dropping their status from, yeah, we're going to be the
02:54number of the guys picking number one.
02:56Oh, correct me if I'm wrong.
02:56They did that in the past already for the Giants, where now the Raiders look like they're going
03:00to pick number one.
03:01Then you have the Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills.
03:04The Eagles come out in the rain, take a 13-0 lead, then take a knee the entire second
03:08half and still wound up with a one-point victory over the Buffalo Bills.
03:11A wild 4 p.m. yesterday, which only had two games.
03:15Right.
03:16So, you know, I don't think it impacts the Giants that much.
03:19You know, not having the number one pick, like if they're going to end up, they're not
03:22taking a quarterback.
03:23So they're going to, hopefully they'll take an offensive line because that's what they
03:26need to be doing.
03:26Or I don't know if they need another edge rusher.
03:29But not having one doesn't impact the Giants, I think, as much as people are making it out
03:32to be.
03:33They're not taking a quarterback to begin with.
03:34So just take an offensive lineman, you know, when it comes to the Eagles-Bills game, my
03:37biggest takeaway is Josh Allen's health because he went into the locker room after the game
03:42and got an x-ray on his foot, which was already bothering him.
03:44And now he may not be playing this week anyway, but him not being healthy going into the first
03:48round of playoffs, that should be the biggest takeaway.
03:52Yeah, it's unfortunate too, because had that defense played like they did in that game
03:58all year, the Bills wouldn't even have to worry about anything as far as that goes
04:03there.
04:04But big picture, your takeaways here, I mean, Patriots for real?
04:09Are you buying the 49ers, Tom?
04:11What are you thinking here?
04:13I'm buying the 49ers in a sense that their defense may be bad, but I know that they can
04:19go toe-to-toe with any other offense.
04:21They can just outscore teams.
04:24And in terms of Seattle, which is obviously a big test next week, you know, if San Francisco
04:28wins, they're going to have home field advantage and they could legitimately have home field
04:31advantage until the Super Bowl, which is they're playing in San Francisco.
04:35So they won't be on the road for over a month, which is crazy.
04:38When it comes to the Pats, I buy into them as much as I buy into almost any other AFC
04:43team where I can buy into the Bills, but Josh Allen's unhealthy and the defense is kind
04:46of terrible.
04:47And I can buy into the Jags.
04:48It's like, well, they don't have a ton of playoff experience.
04:50And I can buy into the Ravens.
04:51If they make it, it's like, well, it's still Lamar.
04:53They can win games, but their defense is getting better.
04:55It's like every team in the AFC has great things.
04:58They also have some terrible things about them.
05:00The Pats have no playoff experience.
05:01They've also collapsed the games, but they responded and, you know, torched the Ravens
05:05and they torched the Jets.
05:07So if they have home field, they have a buy.
05:10Denver is a buy.
05:11I buy into anyone and no one at the same time.
05:14Yeah.
05:14I mean, the NFC is wild.
05:15It's up in the air.
05:16You saw it last night.
05:17Two of the better football teams here seemingly don't have any defenses when we like to say
05:20defense wins championships.
05:22Should be a fun run in the NFC.
05:23But that also starts tonight.
05:25The Los Angeles Rams with not much to play for on the road against Atlanta.
05:29This might actually work out in the Rams favor.
05:31They can't get a one, two or three or four seed here and get a home playoff game in round
05:35number one.
05:36If you look at that football team and you say, okay, let's play maybe a half of football
05:39tonight, which I do think they're going to play the entire way.
05:41Then take your de facto buy in week 18.
05:44You can catapult yourself as a real dangerous team off of a buy, which Tom is something I was
05:48rooting so hard last night for the 49ers to win.
05:51Excuse me, for the Bears to win that game, which would have knocked the Philadelphia Eagles
05:54out of a chance of getting that two seed so they could rest in week 18.
05:57But tonight's Rams Atlanta game looks like they're going to play at least based on the
06:00line time.
06:01The eight and a half, they've disappeared into seven and a half right now and a total
06:0549 and a half.
06:06Are we getting a full blast effort from the Rams tonight versus Atlanta?
06:10I truly believe that we are.
06:12And I don't want to say that this is a spot for the Rams to, you know, quote unquote, right
06:17the ship.
06:18And it's not as if they're coming off a bad loss.
06:20Like, yeah, the game against Seattle didn't go as well, but they're often still look good,
06:24right?
06:24And they did so without Devontae Adams, who's not expected to play tonight.
06:27He's not expected to play next week.
06:28So I see this as just a game, go out there, score some points, whatever result may be,
06:33it's going to be.
06:34And then they just have a, like you said, a de facto buy next week.
06:36So it's not like, again, they look bad.
06:38Stafford, you know, 450 yards, all the touchdowns, Puka look great.
06:41Kyron Williams played Corey, et cetera, et cetera.
06:43So I expect them to just go out, operate rationally.
06:45And if they score 30 and win great, if they score 24 and lose, so be it.
06:50But they just need to have that, that confidence of, we can't take two full weeks off.
06:54Yeah.
06:56Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Kirk Cousins that had that record where he couldn't
07:00win on Monday night?
07:01Was it like a Monday night?
07:02Like anytime he played, right?
07:04I think he was 0 and 9.
07:05I think on Monday night football, like every time he played, he was an automatic fade.
07:10But what do we do?
07:11I mean, are we looking for passing yards for him?
07:14Are we looking to fade him, Tom?
07:15Like, what do we do with these two quarterbacks?
07:18I'm looking to back Stafford on the Rams side of things.
07:22I like him specifically over 21 and a half completions.
07:25Again, this is a spot that he's routinely been at throughout the entirety of the year.
07:29Again, this is, again, it's not a right-the-ship type of spot for the Rams.
07:32They just need to go out there.
07:33He's going to score some points.
07:35I don't know if he wants to keep himself in the MVP conversation, throw a couple touchdowns,
07:39as we saw Drake May light up the Jets.
07:41Yesterday, but I like him over 21 and a half completions.
07:44I think he should be able to get that done.
07:45And then when it comes to the Falcon side of things, you know, I don't want to back Kirk
07:48Cousins specifically.
07:49I want to back their best player.
07:50That's Bijan Robinson looking to him over 17 and a half for his longest reception.
07:55We see the Rams this year.
07:56They've allowed 552 receiving yards to opposing running backs.
07:59That's the 10th most in the NFL.
08:01And we look to Bijan in some of these recent games.
08:03He's routinely breaking off long receptions, not just over 17 and a half, but 30 plus,
08:0740 plus in some of these games.
08:08You get the ball into his hands, you know, after the pass rush of Jared Verse and the
08:12Rams gets there.
08:13Kirk Cousins, not like he's mobile.
08:14He's going to get the ball out quickly.
08:15And Bijan's going to be that guy.
08:17So over 17 and a half for Robinson, you get up easily over 100 combined yards tonight.
08:21And some of that's going to be coming in the air.
08:23Yeah, I think it's an interesting game, too, because, you know, so two games out, it's a
08:27little bit early to shut it down.
08:28They've already prepared all week long that they're going to play full go.
08:31I do think you get the best out of the Rams, but you still want to take a look at those
08:34inactive reports before the game starts.
08:36But Tom, we got three really important games next weekend, two on Saturday, Carolina and
08:40Tampa Bay, Seattle and San Francisco.
08:42And then the Sunday football game, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
08:44Did you take a quick peek at one of those three games that might be piquing your interest
08:48right now?
08:48Yeah, as of now, I think everyone's going to be focusing in on the Steelers getting
08:53points at home, Tomlin, primetime, underdog.
08:57We got to remember, there's no DK Metcalf.
08:59He's still suspended.
09:00Darnell Washington got hurt.
09:02The offense for the Steelers looked terrible, atrocious, in that JV offense this past weekend.
09:07How are they going to score points in this upcoming game?
09:10So an under and, you know, maybe you take the three and a half of the Steelers.
09:14Yeah, it should be a lot of fun to watch you play at.
09:15That's Tom Vecchio.
09:16We'll have him on certainly again before these games kick off, Tom.
09:19Thanks for rising and grinding on a Monday with us.
09:21For Joe and Donnie, we're going to get to that Monday night football game tonight.
09:25All right.
09:26Welcome back into the early line, the final Monday of the year.
09:31Wow.
09:31Go figure.
09:322025 coming to a close.
09:352026 just around the corner.
09:36One more Monday night football game to close out the year as well tonight between the Rams and
09:42the Falcons here and the Rams kind of sitting just around that touchdown.
09:47Maybe the hook available, seven and a half in a lot of spots.
09:51But what is on the line for these two teams?
09:54Well, if I'm Atlanta and I am Coach Morris here, Raheem Morris, are you coaching for your job?
10:02Because I think he kind of is here at this point.
10:06And if you talk to anybody from Atlanta, they'll tell you the 14 and 18 record of this Atlanta
10:12Falcons team over the last two seasons that he's been at the helm, not exactly what they
10:18thought they would be getting here.
10:20Now, the Rams, thanks to the 49ers winning last night, the Rams really are just playing
10:26for seating at this point because they are tied for second with the 49ers in a very tough
10:32NFC West here.
10:34But let's face it, Atlanta's not going to the playoffs, but they are going to be able to
10:39see whether or not Raheem Morris can push the right buttons here.
10:43They do have their $160, $70, $80 million backup quarterback going here and Kurt Cousins again.
10:49But is that going to be enough to go up against a Rams team who is still pretty fuming over
10:56what happened last week and the meltdown against Seattle?
11:00They usually don't lose games in which they have a pretty comfortable lead, but they did
11:07last week.
11:08They're looking to bounce back.
11:09And I had mentioned when it comes to Coach McVay, there has been nobody more profitable
11:15than him, especially in the month of December and especially coming off a loss like they
11:22did there last week against this Seattle team.
11:26So even though there's nothing winner you're in type of situation, we know the Rams are already
11:32in.
11:33But my goodness, backing Sean McVay and the Rams has been a profitable spot here.
11:40In fact, since he actually became the head coach in 2017, he's 32-19-1 against the number
11:47off a loss.
11:49That is the best record for any coach since he came into the league in 2017.
11:56And by the way, he's really good in these night primetime games too as well.
12:008-4-1 against the number.
12:02They had a 16-point lead heading into that fourth quarter last week against the Seahawks.
12:07Usually when they blow those kinds of games, the next game back, pretty focused, pretty
12:14good.
12:14I'm expecting a big effort from the defense, especially here tonight.
12:19And by the way, I was right.
12:20I looked at it.
12:21Kurt Cousins started his career off in the NFL going 0-9 straight up and against the number
12:27on Monday night football, which is absolutely hilarious.
12:32But recently, he's kind of changed those fortunes here, and he actually has gone 2-0 straight
12:39up on Monday night football, his last couple of shots.
12:43So he's been better as of late.
12:45But my goodness, it was a rough stretch for him in primetime.
12:49It's hard to look at anybody but the Rams bouncing back in a big way because Coach McVay, of all
12:56coaches, Donnie, know that we cannot limp into the playoffs.
13:02I mean, next week, Week 18 is not going to mean anything for the Rams.
13:06I expect a big-time effort here from the Rams tonight.
13:10And this could be, I mean, I think Raheem Morris is coaching for his job tonight.
13:14I think that's what's on the line for Atlanta.
13:16Yeah, I'm interested to see, too, because we just talked about Tom Vecchio about this
13:19game.
13:20Like, I just want to see what the inactive reports are.
13:22And we are understanding where the Rams came into this week preparing to play a football
13:25game.
13:26You usually don't pull the plug on that a week early.
13:29Like, if this was Week 18, like, yeah, nobody's playing in this game for the Rams.
13:31Not worried about if, oh, no, it might be the 7th seed or the 6th seed.
13:35They would be just fine with that.
13:36But I do think they prepared for this game, and they give an honest effort.
13:39And the same thing with Atlanta.
13:40You're right about this.
13:41Like, Atlanta, it's not Week 18.
13:43They're still going to play their starters here.
13:44It's in a dome.
13:45We're not worried about, you know, 22-degree temperatures and sleeting rain and snow on the field.
13:49You should get a pretty clean surface.
13:50And also, say something about if you are going to go to your bench players in Week 18, hey,
13:55guys, let's get some good work in this weekend.
13:58Let's put up some statistics.
13:59Let's feel good about heading into Week 18, get resting up, and then taking that de facto
14:03buy into the playoffs.
14:04It'll be interesting to me, Joe, because if we quickly look at the line, 7 1⁄2s and 7s,
14:09I do think there's a chance that this line does close, Joe, at 7 or less, as opposed
14:14to staying in that 8 to 7 1⁄2 range where they've been all week.
14:17Yeah, and if it does, I think that'll be the line in the sand.
14:21It's interesting that the hook is still available, right?
14:23Donnie's still giving folks an opportunity to be like, I'll take more than a touchdown
14:28here with the underdog.
14:30But it hasn't gotten there yet.
14:33But if it does, I think at worst, it lands at 7.
14:36And also, Joe, NDP race.
14:39Matthew Stafford's in there.
14:41A couple of toddies make them look good here before they take that Week 18 rest.
14:44We'll find out tonight, but you know what?
14:46Hour number two coming up next, right on the early line.
14:48We'll be back after this week.
14:50Predictive markets tonight, Joe.
14:52Boy, I would like to have a crystal ball to start predicting some of these odds and outcomes
14:56here, which includes tonight's game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Atlanta Falcons.
15:00If I take a look at the Kelsey marketplace right now, Joe, there's a 76% chance that the
15:06Los Angeles Rams win this game outright.
15:08A $100 wager would pay back $132.
15:12Now, again, Joe, I always like to present this notion where you have to take the realm
15:17of sports betting, which again, DraftKings fan deal, you take the point spread, it is
15:21what it is, which you can bet in the predictive markets.
15:23But understand this, I'm not paying that juice.
15:26Well, if you told an investor that I would give you a $100 bill at three o'clock in the
15:31afternoon, and at around 11 o'clock, I'll give you $132 back.
15:36That seems like a good investment.
15:37No, Joe?
15:38Atlanta's going to be, or excuse me, the Rams are going to beat Atlanta tonight.
15:41Would you bet on that?
15:42I don't hate that at all, Donnie, to tell you the truth, because I do happen to believe
15:48that's exactly what is going to happen.
15:50And I like that number, Donnie.
15:53I'll take an extra $32 here on top of the $100.
15:56I got no problem with that.
15:57Yeah.
15:58And by the way, also understand this too, because you can bet the spread in total in
16:01the predictive markets now.
16:02If you do take the Rams, Joe, let's call it seven and a half at the books, seven and a
16:06half here on Cal sheet, a $100 wager would pay you back $209.
16:12If we're using that sportsbook terminology, let's just call it a minus 110 price.
16:16You ain't getting that back.
16:17You would have to lay 110 to get that money back.
16:20So you're actually getting a better price point, theoretically, Joe, with a little bit
16:23of plus money if you take it straight, as opposed to paying a Vega bonus 110.
16:27And that's what it's all about, right?
16:30Maximizing profitability there and understanding that, you know, where can I get the best price?
16:36And we always say it, Donnie, it doesn't make a difference.
16:38Predict the markets, you know, sports betting markets, doesn't matter.
16:42You know, shop around, get the best price for the outcome you think is most likely to happen.
16:46Exactly. How about this next outcome here, Joe, as we saw yesterday in the game that we
16:51didn't think anybody wanted to win and the Giants played like the Super Bowl where they
16:54had to win. That was a game against the Vegas Raiders.
16:56The question I'm going to ask you today, Joe, which team will make the number, excuse me,
17:00make the first overall pick in the 2026 pro football draft.
17:04Now, keep in mind, it's not the team that finishes with the worst record because you can
17:08trade that pick. It's who you think is actually going to make that pick.
17:11Now, Vegas is a 73% chance. Why? Because if they lose next week, they will pick number
17:17one. And I can't see them needing a quarterback trading out and saying, we don't want to take
17:21a quarterback this year, followed by the Jets and the Giants here. It should be simple.
17:26Vegas has a blueprint. Now, also, can Andy Reid be so devious where he's like, you know what?
17:31I don't want the Raiders with the first pick here to get the quarterback that they want.
17:34I'm going to lay down in this game with our guy, you know, Oladokun slash Oladokun,
17:40however you want to call that guy's name here. What are you thinking about this, Joe? It's got
17:43to be Vegas, right? They can't not finish the tank. Or can they?
17:48Oh, no, they'll finish the tank. They, they, listen, they announced to the whole world after,
17:53after Max Crosby had to tell them, I don't care about your draft picks. Yeah, they, they immediately
18:00did everything in their power to make sure. And what's really funny is their best
18:03offensive lineman, Colton Miller, right? Who had missed most of the season has been practicing
18:09for the last two and a half weeks, Donnie, ready to go. What'd they do? They shut him down too.
18:14They said, no, you're not. Even though he's been practicing, they shut him down. I know there's
18:19no tanking in the NFL. Sure. But the Raiders are tanking and they're very good at it, Donnie.
18:24We just saw that last night. Yeah, we did. And by the way, also you're taking a look at like
18:28tanking and how you can ramp it up. Hey, but that mysterious, I don't want to call it mysterious,
18:31but Geno Smith's ankle injury is going to keep him out. So Kenny Pickett comes in. We know what
18:36he can and can't do. I need to see some of the IR inactive for the Raiders this week, because
18:41you've come far enough, you know, Vegas, you're a bad football team. Just finish it. And again,
18:46if Pete Carroll wants to win these games, just take all his viable players away. So no matter what he
18:51does on Sunday, he can't win that football game. We'll watch you play out.
18:58At Sports Grid on X, give us a follow Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. We ask
19:02questions that we want to get answers from you. The question today, simple. It's Monday night
19:06football, people. What is your best bet for tonight's Monday night football matchup between
19:10the Rams and the Falcons? Four choices over under Rams with the spread. Falcons getting the points
19:16here. I went, ah, Falcons getting the point seven and a half just to have some fun. And maybe the
19:21Rams will sit some guys at game time. I'll analyze a little bit later, Joe, where did you go in this
19:25game of those four options? Well, I, you know, it's funny, Donnie, because this game opened up
19:30originally 47, 47 and a half, and I'm seeing nothing but tickets and money to the under. And yet this is
19:3949 and a half, Donnie. So it appears that we have a big public, uh, pros versus Joe's line in the sand
19:47on the total. The, the public loves the under, believe it or not, but the pros, they think this
19:53thing is flying over the total here, which is ironic, but, uh, I tend to agree with the public
20:00here. I think maybe the under might be the better look. We will find out tonight. Now you're going to
20:07find out some of those best bets on a Monday. Here's bye. Bye. Bye. All right, Joe, best bets
20:18of the night full slate tonight. So many different ways to go. Where are we headed? Well, uh, Donnie,
20:24if it ain't broke, we're not going to fix it here, even in week 17 tonight. And that is because, uh,
20:31McVay and the Rams, there was just simply no better coach against the spread after a straight up
20:37loss. Then Sean McVay 32, 19 and one against the number awful loss. It is the best record
20:43for any coach in the NFL since he entered the league in 2017. I'm sorry. I think the Rams are
20:51going to want to get the stink and that taste out of their mouth from blowing that lead last week to
20:56Seattle. I expect them to go to Atlanta and have a good time and win by double digits. I'll lay it
21:01with the Rams. Now look, Joe, if you placed them in the predictive markets, we'd be giving you minus
21:05seven and a half around a plus 110 price at that point with no juice Rams tonight by double digits.
21:11That's what we're expecting there for Joe.