Kalshi Markets: Raiders Favored to Pick First in 2026 NFL Draft

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00:00But if we take a look at the Cal State market today, Joe, the question, it is specific.

00:04Which team will make the number one overall pick in 2026?

00:07Which means if you trade out and trade it to Cleveland, let's just say they get it,

00:11well, then you would lose even if you had the worst record and that's the team that you picked.

00:14The reason we bring that up is Vegas and New York are playing today.

00:18There's a 53% chance in the odds market, up 9% right now on the Vegas Raiders,

00:23that they will make the first overall pick.

00:25Quick correlation, Joe, is what?

00:26Well, you take a look at the odds market.

00:28It says the Giants are favored to win.

00:29They're supposed to win.

00:30That's why.

00:31I'm not so sure about this, Joe.

00:33A lot can go wrong, which means does the bat phone call down to the sideline

00:37and fire Pete Carroll in the third quarter if he's actively trying to win this game?

00:41So now I'm perplexed because we broke down the game.

00:44Yes.

00:45And I tell you from the spread perspective, I would take the Giants,

00:49which would lead me to believe that if we're looking off this,

00:52that the Raiders will make the first pick.

00:54Now, Raiders, look, I'll say this.

00:57Whether you love Pete Carroll or not, that's not the question.

01:00They don't have a quarterback.

01:01Geno Smith is not the answer.

01:03Why they signed him to a three-year deal thinking that he was Sam Donald or somebody else,

01:08for that matter, that could take this team to the promised land was ridiculous.

01:11He over-exceeded expectations with Seattle, and then he got his team to a better place.

01:17But at the end of the day, by no means is he a franchise guy.

01:20They're not going to go anywhere with Geno Smith, so they need to draft maybe Fernando Mendoza

01:26or whoever you believe is the number one overall quarterback.

01:29Dante Moore we could throw out there as well.

01:31But I would probably go with the market movement thinking that Las Vegas,

01:38they are in a complete rebuild, Donnie.

01:41They have no weapons outside of, let's be honest, Brock Bowers, Gentee, and Max Cross.

01:47Outside of that, I have nothing.

01:48Devoid of playmakers.

01:50They have nothing.

01:51Yeah.

01:51Trey Tucker, I mean, is pedestrian.

01:54They don't have an elite number one.

01:56They traded away Jacoby Myers.

01:57Who looks like a one.

01:59You know what I mean?

01:59It's just so crazy it gets out of Vegas.

02:01It's just amazing where this team is.

02:05And again, why is it, and I understand Al Davis back in the day,

02:09but why is it that this team is always like this no matter who they get as a head coach?

02:16Versace might have been their coach.

02:19Playoff.

02:20Yeah.

02:20That guy could have been maybe the coach that they swung and missed.

02:25They didn't offer him the job because he wasn't a recognizable name.

02:28Yeah, they wanted Pierce.

02:29And all they did was win with the guy.

02:32No, that's the way it is.

02:33And by the way, just a quick point there.

02:34Number one overall picture.

02:36It looks like a runaway right now for Fernando Mendoza.

02:38Do you agree with that?

02:39Or you maybe have some illusions like, you know what?

02:41Dante Moore has got some legs too.

02:42He can do some things.

02:43And, you know, Ruben Hurricane Bain, as I like to say, is 11%.

02:46Look, nobody's trading up and taking the defensive end number one.

02:49I'm sorry about that.

02:50But it feels like it's pointing to Mendoza.

02:52Yeah, I would sell that.

02:54How about that?

02:54Because I think in the end, it's susceptible to an upset in the college football playoff.

02:59So if that's the case, and let's say Fernando Mendoza does not perform well,

03:04potentially maybe that hurts the stock at least early on,

03:07where if you sell it here, you could buy it back, especially if Dante Moore potentially

03:12over-exceeds expectations and, let's say, shreds a poor Texas stack in the second-round game.

03:18Now all of a sudden you have value.

03:20You have that CLV that everybody craves and wants to have, you know, at their disposal.

03:26So I don't – I think Fernando Mendoza is a good quarterback.

03:30I don't think he's the – like, he's not Jayden Daniels.

03:35He's not Neal Williams.

03:36He's not a generational talent to say we need this guy.

03:40He's not even Trevor Lawrence, Donnie.

03:42So for that aspect, I probably would sell him.

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