00:00Let's focus in on this busy roster of central banks, data.
00:04What do you think has the power to surprise, Paul?
00:06Where are we going to see some volatility being created?
00:11Yeah, hi there, Anna.
00:12Well, so lots of potential volatility in the FX and rate space this week.
00:16It all spins around or off of the Fed, of course.
00:18The Fed cutting last week but then sort of signaling that it might be going on hold for a little bit of time.
00:23So that gives the market a time to calibrate where other central banks are going relative to the Fed.
00:27The Bank of England is coming along.
00:30The market is expecting a cut, although a closed vote.
00:33And what we get in terms of the readout on how many more cuts there will be will give us close indication of where to trade sterling and gilts as well.
00:41That will be quite interesting.
00:42And then we have the ECB the same day likely to raise its forecasts and stay on hold, maybe pointing towards a hike at some point in the future.
00:51So euro sterling also could look interesting on that metric.
00:53Then we get to, for Asia, the big one on Friday, the Bank of Japan.
00:58Everybody expects them to hike and to signal that more hikes will be coming as well.
01:03That hasn't been helping the yen so far.
01:05So maybe finally it will get a little bit of support if the BOJ can sound hawkish enough to convince people that the rates gap between Japan and the Fed is going to start to narrow a little bit more.
01:15So that's, I think, where we'll be focusing on and looking forward to it at the end of the week.
01:19OK, so a busy week for central banks ahead, Paul.
01:22But last week, at the end of it, at least, seemed to be more dominated by the AI jitters than the Fed cut.
01:28I wonder what you see for stocks towards the end of the year.
01:32Lots hoping for a Santa rally.
01:33Are we going to see a great rotation?
01:35Yeah, I think that that's a really interesting one as well.
01:40On Friday, you certainly got a sense of that.
01:42And through the back end of last week in the U.S. markets, this idea that people are pairing their Fed bets, sorry, pairing their tech bets that have been doing so well.
01:51Those worries about the build out, the pace and whether it's sustainable, the cost and whether they can fund it as well.
01:57And people are thinking, well, why not let's spread our chips a little bit wider across the surface.
02:02So banks, for example, have been faring well and other stocks that are more kind of offering more value at these rates.
02:09So I think that, you know, at least into year end, the market is going to continue to toy with that theme.
02:14But I don't think that the tech story is dead by any means yet.
02:17The AI boom still has a lot of potential and people will find more reasons to get excited about that into the new year.
02:23So that's the busyness of the week ahead.
02:28We've already had some data, though, China data.
02:31We were just talking to a guest about that.
02:33Paul, what was your takeaway?
02:36Yeah, well, pretty gloomy.
02:38And the market's taken a little bit of a knock there.
02:41We've also got some negative sentiment in the property space, of course, coming from Banker, the latest of the developers to come under some fiscal duress there as well, struggling with its debts.
02:50So there's still clouds hanging over the economy.
02:53The market doesn't seem to mind all that much, though.
02:55Chinese equities have still been performing well on these growth stories, on China's tech story, as it happens in the AI space there as well.
03:02So people are looking a little bit more optimistically and favorably towards the Chinese market despite these clouds and hoping that in the new year we'll get more stimulus as well.
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