Jones & Keefe: Why the Patriots will win on Sunday

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00:00I was a little surprised that they were underdogs.

00:02And not to get the whole betting part of it, but you're like,

00:05oh, it's plus money for them to win at home?

00:07Against a Bills team, which I don't think is great.

00:10We even had Sal Capaccio, who covers the team for Buffalo,

00:14say what I was saying earlier in the week, or confirming what I said earlier in the week,

00:17this is the worst Bills team in the last six years.

00:20So since Josh Allen really emerged, Steph Diggs' first year in Buffalo, 2020,

00:25he's been an MVP candidate.

00:27They've been a Super Bowl contender, even though they've never made it.

00:30They've been a contender.

00:31And this is their worst team.

00:33So even though Mahomes is down, Lamar's down, well, so is Josh Allen.

00:37They have a better record than those other teams.

00:39But I don't think they're great.

00:40Watched a lot of that Bengals game last week where Cincinnati really should have beat them.

00:44And then Cincinnati and Joe Burrow kind of fell apart, and the Bills won.

00:48So I'll take the Patriots.

00:50I think they're playing better.

00:52I think Steph Diggs is going to have another really big game,

00:55motivated going up against the Buffalo Bills.

00:57You're with Stephen A.

00:58I'm with Stephen A.

00:59That's a great take by him.

01:00So no, I'll take the Patriots.

01:02I think it'll be super close, and it'll be a tight game.

01:04Wouldn't be surprised if they played a third time come playoffs.

01:08But yeah, I'm going to take the Pats.

01:09So if you were watching, and I know you were, Bengals and Bills last week,

01:13Christian Benford had the 63-yard pick that Burrow pretty much threw right to him.

01:17Yep.

01:17But it was a big play in the game.

01:19All of a sudden, he showed up yesterday at Bills practice in a walking boot.

01:21But yeah, so we can talk all we want about, oh, the Patriots are down Will Campbell.

01:27They still moved it constantly in that game without Will Campbell.

01:30They might get Jared Wilson back.

01:31We know they won't have Milton Williams.

01:33And they did a good job limiting James Cook in the first matchup.

01:36And that's going to be important.

01:37When Milton Williams was there, that is.

01:39I have the Patriots as well.

01:40I just double-checked.

01:41They're a point-and-a-half dogs on both.

01:44Woof, woof.

01:45FanDuel and DraftKings.

01:46They're plus 100 on the money line on both.

01:48So I think there's good value there.

01:50Yeah, yeah.

01:50But I'll pick him straight up in this game.

01:52And I think, I'll put it to you like this, for the matchup.

01:56And I do think this is the key Verizon matchup of the week.

01:59I think if you ask which defense has a better chance of slowing down the opposing quarterback,

02:03even if Josh Allen is the better quarterback on a one-game basis,

02:07you take him to win one game,

02:08I think the Patriots have a better chance of slowing down Josh Allen slowing him down.

02:13Not shutting him down, not stopping him, but doing what they did in the first matchup

02:15than the Bills do with Drake May in this offense.

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