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Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer reacts to US President Donald Trump’s recent interview, highlighting the alignment between Trump’s foreign policy and Kremlin interests. Bremmer warns that the US strategy, which favors a weaker or disintegrated European Union, could alarm European leaders and shift the geopolitical balance in Europe. Watch live for full analysis and expert insights.
00:00All right, there's a lot to impact tonight. I want to pull in Ian Bremmer now. He is a political
00:03scientist and founder and president of the political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group.
00:08He joins us from New York City. It's good to see you, Ian. Let's pick up with what we heard
00:12there from Peskov. He didn't just welcome Trump's comments. He said that Trump's framing of NATO,
00:17of territory, and Ukraine matches Russia's own analysis. Is Moscow, is it simply exploiting
00:23Trump's language, or is it reading something real about the direction of U.S. policy?
00:30Sure. I think the most important point is that the United States under the Trump administration
00:36and the Kremlin share one rather important strategic goal in foreign policy, which they both believe
00:43that a weak European Union, or even a disintegrated European Union, is a preferable foreign policy
00:50goal. And the Kremlin is pleased, and they've made very clear, not just with Trump's Politico
00:56interview, but also with the National Security Strategy, that the Kremlin is broadly aligned
01:02with the goals that are elucidated there. Now, usually, you know, in this environment,
01:07if the Kremlin says they like what you're doing, you probably should rethink what you're doing.
01:12And certainly European leaders, almost all of them, perhaps not Viktor Orban in Hungary,
01:18but almost all of them, are going to be deeply concerned about what they've heard from the Trump
01:25as president, as also from the Trump administration over the past few days,
01:29that feels like the United States is becoming an adversary. And, you know,
01:33Europe has a lot of adversaries these days.
01:35And what about this new, this national security strategy? I mean, is it reshaping expectations
01:42when it comes to any Ukrainian peace deal? And should European leaders, should they believe
01:50anything that comes from the United States at the moment in terms of peace and peace with Ukraine
01:58and Russia? Well, when you say should they believe what comes from the U.S., certainly trust has eroded
02:05significantly. Most Europeans believe they can no longer rely on the United States. President Trump,
02:12both as president and before he was president, wasn't someone that usually trust was not one of the
02:16first words you would think of when you would describe him in terms of his behavior and his
02:23success. But the Trump approach to Ukraine is that he wants the war to be over. And not only is that a
02:34priority, but he doesn't really care what the required conditions are to get to that
02:41outcome. And if you don't really care, like how you get to a ceasefire, how you get to peace,
02:49the easiest way to get to peace is to beat up hard on the little guy. And Trump basically said that,
02:56you know, he said, ah, the Ukrainians are losing. And there are some people in his administration
03:01that I've spoken with that believe that the Ukrainians truly are starting to lose significantly
03:07on the ground militarily. But even if that were the case, most supporters of Ukraine would not
03:15publicly say, hey, our side is losing because you also lose leverage with the Russians when you say
03:20that. But if you don't care what the outcome is, as long as you have a ceasefire, then, you know,
03:26Trump is now saying we need the Ukrainians to have elections. He doesn't say that about the Russians.
03:31I mean, you know, the Russians are not a dictatorship. We need the Ukrainians to accept giving up some
03:37land, not that the Russians have to leave. And Trump has backed away from a lot of the pressure
03:44that he seemed to be putting on Putin over the last couple of months. He's certainly been giving
03:50them a lot more additional deadlines and he's made it a little less urgent. What about the reactions
03:56we've seen here in Europe to all of this? I mean, there has been outrage here over this new national
04:02security strategy, especially we've seen some leaders. They've been noticeably restrained.
04:07Some have not. And I mean, I'm just wondering, it may feel good to vent, particularly when you're a
04:13European leader talking about Donald Trump. But that's not going to get you very far. I mean,
04:17it doesn't make Europe any less dependent on Trump's America, does it?
04:21Well, Europe is becoming less dependent on Trump's America. Europe is, of course,
04:27spending a lot more on defense. And unless Trump were to cut off the willingness of military companies
04:35to sell to the Europeans, because it's getting European taxpayer money, it's not American taxpayer
04:41money, that gives the Europeans more leverage over actual Ukrainian outcomes and over their own
04:47security. That's changed over the course of the last year. That is a real thing. But when you see
04:54President Trump, when you see Elon Musk, when you see J.D. Vance and others talking about the Europeans
05:01that they like, who are more Euroskeptic, and the fact that they would like to see some of the far
05:07right parties coming in, I mean, suddenly the Europeans are going to start thinking that the Americans are
05:13trying to put their finger on the scale against the European Union, the way the Russians directly
05:19interfere. And that's not the behavior of an ally. That's the behavior of, as I said at the outset,
05:25an adversary. And it's going to be very hard because the Europeans are still so dependent on the United
05:31States and in terms of intelligence and the economy and the rest, it's going to be very hard for them to
05:37suddenly break those ties. But clearly the message to the Europeans is you need to become a lot stronger,
05:44a lot more self-sufficient, as fast as humanly possible.
05:49Well, you know, next week we're going to see the year-end summit among European Union leaders. And at
05:55that summit, they're going to have to decide how they're going to come up with it. I think it's about
05:59200 billion euros necessary to keep funding Ukraine and to keep them in this war. Will they use,
06:08which is about what, 210 billion euros in frozen Russian assets, which are sitting in Belgium? I
06:15mean, I was just reading today, the European Central Bank is reportedly worried that a move
06:19like that would endanger the stability of the euro itself.
06:23I think that the leaders, European leaders I've spoken to feel that this is an extraordinary
06:30priority, but they're very close to getting there. They need to find a way to collateralize
06:36this, these assets that would be seized so that it doesn't all fall on Belgium as it shouldn't. It's
06:44a European decision. If it turns out that some of the legal process and some of these monies at some
06:51point are contested and might need to go back to Russia. That's not going to fall all on Belgium. So
06:56they need a process for that. They're working it through. It's complicated, but it is urgent. It is a
07:01priority. And overwhelmingly, the Europeans, with a couple of small exceptions, feel like this is something
07:07that has to be done. So I think it will get done. But the Trump administration has thrown a wrench in this
07:14in just the last few days. They say, well, wait a second. We're not sure we want you to seize these
07:19Russian assets. These Americans have literally no business saying that to the Europeans. These are
07:26sovereign assets that were in European accounts. The Europeans have sovereign determination over what
07:32they decide to do with money in their accounts. The Americans wouldn't tolerate it if the Europeans told the
07:36Americans what to do with assets that were in American sovereign accounts. But it is startling, and indeed, it's
07:44privately shocking to the Europeans that President Trump would try to undermine them in that way.
07:50The United States, they say that they don't like a weak Europe, that they want Europe to be stronger.
07:55But they don't want Europe to take this decision to allow them to more effectively fund the war in
08:01Ukraine. They don't want them to start spending their own money on their own weapons systems in
08:07Europe. In fact, Trump has said very clearly he wants them spending money on the United States, which means he
08:12wants Europe to be more dependent over time on the U.S. So, I mean, you have to watch not just what they
08:18write, but also what they actually do. The final point I should make is that the NSS was, of course,
08:25at no point did President Trump actually read it. And European leaders should remember that, too.
08:30But, you know, you're confident that next week we're going to see a decision coming from the EU to use these
08:37frozen assets. But how can you be so confident? Because Europe knows if they do that, they could
08:42face retribution from Russia. I mean, that's why Belgium has been holding out. And also, at the same
08:47time, based on what you're saying, if they unfreeze this money and give it to Ukraine, then they're
08:52going to get the wrath of Donald Trump as well. So they're going to get hit from both sides by doing
08:57this.
08:58I'm reasonably confident that they will come up with a solution that gets the Ukrainians this committed
09:04money. And if you made me bet, I would say that it's going to be using these frozen assets in some
09:10way, in some manner. I think there is a workaround to be done that will that will allay Belgium's
09:17concerns. But the Europeans are between a rock and a hard place. What is the top priority? The top
09:25priority is making sure that they can defend themselves and that you can Ukraine can defend
09:30itself against a much larger, brutal and illegal Russian invasion. And that is obviously the
09:39priority. The Europeans, you'll remember when Zelensky went to the White House, the Europeans all got on
09:43planes with 24-hour notice and they joined him in the Oval Office. The Europeans didn't do that on trade.
09:50The Europeans didn't do that on the national security strategy. They did it on Ukraine. This
09:56feels for the frontline European states, as well as the major European leaders, the Germans, the French,
10:01as well as non-EU, the Brits. This is a top priority. And so if they have to make a decision
10:09between alienating the Russians, alienating the Americans and ensuring their own security,
10:14they're going to go with the latter.
10:16Ian, unfortunately, we're out of time. Excellent discussion. We will be watching to see what comes
10:20out of the EU next week. Ian Bremmer with the Eurasian Group. Ian, thank you.
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