Army vs. Navy Game Analysis: Betting Tips & Trends

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00:00Uh, this is usually one of those games, Paul, where you just blindly bet the under. It's come

00:04through so many times between Army and Navy, but they keep setting the number lower and lower every

00:09year. This one is 38.5. Navy is clearly better than Army going into this matchup, but you never

00:16know, Paul. It's almost like the team that has the ball last is the team that usually covers the

00:21spread between these two teams, Army and Navy. A lot of running, obviously, in this one. I think

00:27the number that I see here is 17 and two on the under since 2006. Wow. That's a fantastic

00:35trend over the last 20 years. Yeah. I think we had a closing total a couple of years back,

00:41maybe like 28, 28 and a half. It seems like, I don't think I dreamed that, but, but I think

00:46it's about the familiarity, you know, obviously when Army and Navy, first of all, when they face

00:50non-service academies, you know, many of those opposing defenses have varying degrees of difficulty

00:59defending the unique option offense, cause they only see it once a year, or they maybe only see

01:05it once in a blue moon. And there's just so much, it's unfamiliar. There's so much motion. There's so

01:10much eye candy. Uh, it's assignment based football. You have to play your keys. You have to stay in your

01:17position. Uh, so those teams sometimes have great difficulty, non-service academies defending that

01:24unique option offense. But when Army and Navy play one another, it's something that they pretty much see

01:30every day in practice. There are certainly some unique twist, uh, that both throw at the other,

01:35but the core principles are the same. You look at the quarterbacks and that's what it's all about.

01:40In both these attacks, Blake Harbath or Navy, uh, he surpassed 1000 yards rushing this year for the

01:46second straight season. He's rushed for a total of, uh, 1,040 yards so far this regular season,

01:53six yards of carry. He's thrown for another 1,390 yards, 10.6 yards per attempt. On the other

02:00sideline, Army quarterback, Cal Helms, uh, maybe not quite as productive as Harbath, but still quite

02:06productive. Uh, he's rushed for 1,078 yards, only 4.1 yards per carry. And he has been a workhorse

02:14down the stretch, uh, for the cadets. In their last five games, Helms has averaged 31 carries a game,

02:20so he is toting the load for sure. You know, last year, uh, Army looked like clearly the superior team.

02:27They were favored by six and a half points. They got upset by Navy 31 to 13. Uh, this time around,

02:34we're seeing Navy pretty much today as a consensus six point favorite. The dog in this series in the last

02:4114 meetings, 10 and four against the spread. I'm going to take the underdog. I like Army plus six over Navy.