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00:00High noon, Jones and Keefe here on WEEI.
00:04It is a Tier Tuesday.
00:05Tiers are up at Jones and Keefe.
00:07Patriots on the top tier where they remain.
00:10You can see where everybody else's teams wound up fitting in.
00:14Again, at Jones and Keefe, at Keefe21, at Jones, WEEI.
00:18But it is not only a Tier Tuesday.
00:21We got a Keefer Madness for you at 1245.
00:24And it's also a Tom E. Tuesday.
00:26Tommy Curran, NBC Sports Boston, joins us now here on Jones and Keefe.
00:29He's brought to you by your New England Chevy dealers.
00:31Together, let's drive and buy Shaw's and Star Market.
00:34Go shopping and get rewarded.
00:36Tommy Curran, how are we doing this week?
00:39I'm great. You guys sound energized.
00:41Oh, we are. We are. We can see the finish line of the Christmas break right around the corner.
00:46It's here.
00:47So, Tom, your latest is now up at NBC Sports Boston.
00:51Mike Vrabel's word choice shows how the Patriots bar has officially been raised.
00:56We talked about that a little bit during the bye week.
00:59We played Mike Vrabel with you guys yesterday.
01:02He's like, ah, you guys are reading too much into my comments.
01:04If I said something different, you'd read into that, et cetera, et cetera.
01:08How calculated do you think that was on Vrabel's end to mention the word champions last week?
01:13I think it was very specific and very directed because this is a team, and I mentioned this in the column, 11 months ago, the notion was, can we just take advantage of bad football?
01:25And he said at the time, I don't know if we can.
01:28And so they've leapfrogged from being able to take advantage of bad football to being a really good team.
01:34They skipped right over mediocrity.
01:36So I would imagine that there is a sense among players it would only be human nature to go, wow, we're actually really good.
01:44Is this real?
01:46I mean, people keep mentioning our record, and people keep saying what a great story we are.
01:50Have we already achieved something here?
01:53And I think that Mike's redirecting their attention toward what they can do this year in a very wide-open and chaotic AFC is a shrewd move by him because you guys have heard of imposter syndrome, right?
02:09Oh, yeah.
02:10Yeah, we live it.
02:11We act it out every day.
02:12Yes.
02:13So, you know, I would have wondered if some of these guys, and I don't think that they would, but just, you know, it's a bye week.
02:22I'm just sitting there putting them on the couch and wondering, do they understand how good they are, at least in 2025 with the mojo they have right now?
02:30It is always fleeting.
02:31So if that opportunity is in front of you, say to yourself in the mirror, I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and damn it, we could win the AFC.
02:39You know, I don't know how closely you paid attention to the Titans when Vrabel was there.
02:44I know, obviously, you're covering the Pats, but I'm curious how much you think he has changed as a coach over the years and having it be his second opportunity, or is the big difference just, hey, I had Ryan Tannehill before, now I have Drake May, I had a GM that traded away A.J. Brown.
03:01Had I kept him, maybe I would have kept the success going, or has he made some changes just the way he goes about things?
03:06I think I would be presumptuous to say that I know specifically that he's changed the way he's addressing the team, the media, his in-game activity, but he is so specific about the way he wants to approach his players, and so specific about the way he wanted to approach the media.
03:26We met with him in February, I think it was, he sat down at the table and wanted to know everybody's story in the media, who are you, you know, what's your family situation?
03:38He just wants to know people better so we can connect better.
03:40I don't know if he might have done that in Tennessee, but I think that the bond that he has established with specifically his players, and no doubt his coaches as well, has helped give clarity to the things that he wants to accomplish.
03:54And as a result, the great buy-in that you've seen from this team that, you know, as he mentioned, shows up en masse on days that they don't have to, to lift, work out, do rehab, etc.
04:07Tom, we just completed our tiers, as we do every Tuesday, and we have the Patriots on the top tier, along with the Denver Broncos.
04:17We have teams ranked highly like the Bills and the Texans, Chargers and Jags, a cup below that.
04:22In the AFC, who should the Patriots fear the most in the AFC playoff field?
04:27The teams with the best defenses, so that would be Houston, that would be Denver.
04:33I think it's funny, when you look at Jacksonville, I was ready to, when I was writing my column, talking about the AFC loss, look at their schedule and say,
04:41well, look at this bad loss, or look at this win that was narrow.
04:45They're actually kind of impressive.
04:47The losses have been to good teams, and they did get boat raced by the Rams a couple weeks ago, 35-7.
04:54But overall, their losses have been quality losses against good teams.
04:59So, I don't know if we should take them seriously.
05:02Talking to Phil Perry about it on my podcast, the Achilles to them is, believe it or not, Mr. Generational Trevor Lawrence.
05:12Isn't that funny?
05:13Yeah.
05:13Like, did you expect year, what is it, five for him or four?
05:17It has to be five, to be saying, yeah, he's a problem.
05:21But it kind of is.
05:23So, it's wide open.
05:25You look at Denver, I'm not afraid of Bo Nix and that passing game.
05:30Certainly not afraid of the charges.
05:33That display last night of lack of protection, I don't think I've seen a quarterback get battered like that since Brady took it back in 2015 against the Broncos.
05:42It's in the AFC Championship.
05:44I mean, he got pummeled.
05:45That is not a good team.
05:47So, I think those teams with the good defenses are the ones to be wary of it.
05:51I really like the way C.J. Stroud is playing as well.
05:54You know, getting a chance to watch some of these games over the weekend more closely and see how guys are playing.
05:59I think Houston's a problem.
06:01Houston, they have a problem for you.
06:02No, they're scary to watch.
06:04And they've been on TV a lot recently, too.
06:05I feel like I've seen a lot of Texans football, and they look pretty good.
06:09As for the Buffalo Bills, obviously the second matchup of the season coming up on Sunday, Pats have a chance to win the division.
06:14And this isn't by any means to push down what the Patriots have done, but I'm curious, do you think this is the worst Bills team since Josh Allen has really emerged?
06:25It was year three for Josh Allen, year one with Steph Diggs back in 2020 where he became an MVP candidate.
06:31And since then, I know they haven't broken through, but they've been to the conference championship game a couple of times.
06:37They're always kind of picked as one of those teams to do it.
06:40And now when you watch them, I don't know, their defense isn't great, and it's all on Josh Allen.
06:46I'm curious if you think this is the worst team they've had in about five years.
06:50Yeah, definitely.
06:51And I think it's the defense that you pointed out there.
06:53I mean, the days of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde and Tredavious White, Ed Oliver, and the guys that they had up front,
07:00it's just not the same defense.
07:03And Joe Burrow kind of handed them that game the other day with the pick six and then the pick following it up.
07:12So they're vulnerable defensively.
07:15So I would absolutely agree with that.
07:18That's the most flawed team, but it's also got the best player who can, you know,
07:21Superman a situation in a way that nobody else in the league really can right now.
07:25It's time to get Tom E. Curran's Drake Take presented by your New England Chevy dealers.
07:29Together, let's drive.
07:31We were reading yesterday, Tom, from your colleague who you mentioned, Phil Perry,
07:36highlighting weaknesses or really lack thereof in Drake May's game.
07:41I think the best we boiled it down to was you blitz him and play man as much as you can,
07:46but even that, he's still pretty strong against.
07:48Is there a weakness that you would identify or see scheme-wise that you could exploit against Drake May?
07:55Phil was mentioning that he has a relatively low rating against single high safety.
08:03So that means one safety back in the middle of the field and he's playing center field on your deep threats.
08:10The Patriots don't have that field-stretching deep threat, although May has been fantastic,
08:15throwing at 20-plus yards, as we know.
08:18But that's his lowest rating.
08:19So will teams try and play a little bit more single high safety,
08:22try and take away some of the underneath stuff and the seam stuff to Hunter Henry?
08:26And that would open up an opportunity for Kayshawn Booty on the outside to win one-on-ones with his physicality.
08:34So that would be the main thing.
08:36I'd also like to see them employ a little bit more of his running ability with bootlegs down in the red zone.
08:42Their red zone numbers are so anemic relative to the rest of their production
08:48that they really need to figure that out when they're playing some of these games against teams
08:52when you can't settle for three time and again when you get inside the 20 or inside the 10.
08:58So those, to me, would be the two things.
09:02And I'd be interested to see what kind of self-scouting they do
09:05and what they do in the red zone over these last four games
09:08if they try and unlock something that hasn't been working.
09:12Because I just don't think that you can say block harder and it's going to work.
09:17We're going to run into the middle of the line and we're just going to tougher than now type of thing.
09:22I just don't think that's in their identity right now.
09:26Well, I'm curious.
09:27This applies to the red zone as well, but really just the entire time they have the ball.
09:32What do you think the best way to use the running backs in the running game would be?
09:36Because this season, obviously they tried it with Ramondre Stevenson early.
09:39Then he had the fumbles, but then they stuck with him.
09:41Then he got hurt.
09:42Henderson's kind of emerged as we've gone forward.
09:44Even when Stevenson's come back, he's only averaging just over three yards a carry.
09:49It seems like a pretty inconsistent part of their game.
09:53Would you just give the ball to Henderson 15 times a game?
09:56Or how would you do it?
09:57Do you think the best unlock it?
09:59I think it would be matchup dependent.
10:03Who do you need against a particular opponent in terms of the run style?
10:08They have run much more effectively outside.
10:10Especially outside, Stevenson is a much better between the tackles, between the guards, up the middle type runner.
10:18Once he gets to the second level, if he hits it with speed, there are occasions he slows down a bit.
10:25And I think that ends up him getting stacked up.
10:28When he hits it with speed, he's not hitting it with speed because he's not seeing anything there, but create it.
10:33So I would say, depending upon who the matchup is, Henderson running wide, Stevenson in the middle, and I actually should look at the screen numbers, too.
10:43How often they have screened.
10:45Because I think teams will continue to come more and more frequently against May and try and move him because you can't let him stand back there.
10:53Once he's getting more than two and a half seconds, his numbers are off the charts.
10:56Okay, he's Tommy Curran.
10:58Check him out.
10:58NBC Sports Boston.
11:00Again, his latest up there now on Mike Vrabel, Raising the Bar for the Patriots.
11:04You can catch him on Thursdays on WEI Afternoons and all over NBC Sports Boston.
11:09Tom, we appreciate the time.
11:10Thanks so much.
11:11All right, guys.
11:12Have a great week.
11:13Tommy Curran joining us here.
11:14You can give him a follow on Twitter at Tom E. Curran.
11:18I'm with him on Drake May and his mobility in the red zone.
11:22I hope this is the week, too, and it's an interesting matchup against Buffalo.
11:27This is a week to pull out some stops.
11:29Whatever you saw in your quote-unquote self-scouting over the bye week, whatever you saw and however you critiqued what isn't working down there and what's gone wrong down there, this is a week to, I don't want to say empty the sink, like trick plays and things like that.
11:43No, you don't need to.
11:44But this is a week to try to shore that up, and I think that's a good answer as to what might work more in the red zone.
11:50May and his mobility.
11:52That doesn't mean designed runs necessarily.
11:54That doesn't mean the failed tush push that they've tried, but that means relying on May, rolling out, making plays with his legs, or making throws on the run more so down there than you do between the 20s.
12:06I think that's a good place to start when trying to figure out some of the red zone issues.
12:10Yeah, the red zone thing has been pretty bad.
12:12I mean, they're down there with some of the worst teams in the league as far as, like, touchdown percentage.
12:16And I think it's become the biggest, we'll call it issue on the team.
12:21And they're 11-2.
12:22If they win on Sunday, they win the division.
12:24But I think you have to nitpick.
12:25Well, there's nitpicks.
12:26But, like, it's surpassed first drives by the defense, which is what we talked about for a while.
12:33I think there's some, like, running game things, which is also factored in here.
12:36But it does seem like now that has moved past everybody else's thing, where it's like, oh, did you just kick a 20-yard field goal?
12:43Like, a 20-yard field goal?
12:44And, like, there's just been a lot of issues that they have had in the red zone at the goal line.
12:49And for an offense that has scored as many points as they've scored this year, there are top five or top seven offense points per game.
12:56Where could that be if you're scoring seven instead of scoring three?
13:00No, there's some hidden points, like potential, just by doing what you're doing, executing a little better in the red zone, you could go from an offense that's between six and ten to a top five offense, just by executing better down there, for sure.
13:11And so when we say you've got a nitpick, and, like, what your flaw could be, what was the one Orlovsky had a few weeks ago that didn't really move the needle for me?
13:18They played too much nickel defense?
13:19Too much nickel defense.
13:20Oh, they can't stop the run.
13:22And I was like, I think they can.
13:24Yeah.
13:24Because they played nickel defense a lot.
13:26Although they've been run on a little bit more of late.
13:28Yeah.
13:28And we'll see what Josh Allen.
13:30Josh Allen might, because, you know, Justin Fields, as bad as he was, he actually ran the ball against them a little bit.
13:36But, yeah, who else?
13:37I mean, it hasn't really been.
13:38I mean, the Bucs had a runner go over 50 for the first time.
13:41Yeah, Sean Tucker ran for, like, 60 yards.
13:43But, like, they haven't.
13:44The Jets had fields.
13:46The Bengals ran all over them with Chase Brown.
13:48And I think they're second in the NFL, aren't they?
13:51And rush yards allowed.
13:52I'm not overly concerned about that.
13:53But if you're going to try to find a fatal flaw, the fatal flaw would be the red zone.
13:56Yeah.
13:57Oh, 100%.
13:57I think Curran's on to something with that.
14:00Let's go to Nick in Weymouth.
14:01He's been waiting very patiently.
14:02Go ahead, Nick.
14:04Hey, you guys are talking.
14:06How you doing?
14:06Good.
14:06You guys were talking charges before.
14:09I see them losing three out of four or four out of four.
14:14Reason?
14:15They are playing the Chiefs at the Chiefs.
14:17They are playing the Cowboys at the Cowboys.
14:21They will be playing the Texans there.
14:22And then they go play the Broncos at the Broncos.
14:28What I think is going to happen is the Chiefs will get in because they're either going to take the place of the Colts or the Chargers.
14:37I assume the Chargers will last it out.
14:39Okay, so he thinks the Chiefs are going to get in.
14:42Well, they would have to win that head-to-head game because if you're looking at it, they can't take the place of the Colts right now because the Colts aren't in.
14:49So they would have to take the place of the Chargers, who currently are 9-4 and the Chiefs are 6-7.
14:53And the Chargers beat the Chiefs already week one, right?
14:57So they have the head-to-head.
14:59I know they have another game coming up, but then that's going to wash and it's going to go to the next thing.
15:03So I don't know.
15:05And you're talking about like I've stopped talking about the Chiefs like they're going to beat whoever's on their schedule.
15:11Like that's not happening.
15:12They have a losing record.
15:14So it's like what?
15:15They've lost four out of five or something like that?
15:16Yeah, because we're like, oh, well, they'll beat, you know, the Texans or they'll beat whoever.
15:19It's like, no, they're the team losing these games.
15:21By now we thought they'd be winning all these games and they haven't.
15:23And also the Cowboys aren't that good either.
15:24So like I'm not, I do, I agree with the caller that the Chargers have a really tough schedule.
15:28I think they probably lose to the Texans and the Broncos.
15:32But if they go 2-2, that's 11 wins.
15:35If they win one game, they get 10 and I think they probably get in.
15:38Yeah.
15:39I mean, there are three wildcard teams right now.
15:41Who's the most likely to fall out?
15:42Chargers, Bills, Texans.
15:44Chargers.
15:44I agree with that.
15:45Yeah.
15:46The Texans are playing too well.
15:47They have a worse record right now, but I agree with that.
15:50Texans could also pass the Jaguars and bump them down.
15:54So there are multiple avenues to get in.
15:55So this is going to factor in my next question.
15:57Just purely for the wildcard.
15:58Don't factor in the AFC North here.
16:01Who's the most likely team to sneak in?
16:03The Colts, Ravens, or Chiefs?
16:05Wildcard spot.
16:08Chiefs.
16:09I also think that's the Chiefs.
16:10So, I mean, look, if we think the Chargers are most likely to fall out and the Chiefs are most likely to sneak into a wildcard spot,
16:16I guess we can't totally dismiss what Nick is saying.
16:18Yeah, he's not completely wrong.
16:19I was just pointing out they would have to take the Chargers spot currently because the Colts don't even have a spot.
16:23That's all I'm saying.
16:24Yeah, he's right.
16:24In other words, yeah, there's not two avenues in there.
16:26There's one.
16:27No, and they have the head-to-head.
16:29And they cannot win the division.
16:31They officially got eliminated from that the other night.
16:32And the Chiefs' schedule is significantly easier than the Chargers.
16:36But then, again, the Chiefs aren't winning every game.
16:39And they both play the Broncos, which right now I would lean Broncos probably in both of those.
16:43Yeah, the Chiefs have already lost to the Broncos and the Chargers.
16:45They lost week one to the Chargers, Brazil or wherever they were.
16:48But if the Chargers win on Sunday against Kansas City, very simple to wrap our heads around,
16:53a head-to-head win, they get one game closer.
16:55I think Monday there will be a different conversation because then it's going to say,
16:58all right, the Chiefs have Tennessee and Vegas left and Denver, whereas the Chargers have three real games.
17:05So, like, okay, three real games and their quarterbacks hurt and they can't protect them.
17:09What's the spread in the game?
17:11What do you think it is?
17:12Guess the spread.
17:13Where is it?
17:14Remind me where it is.
17:14The game is famously in, scrolling, Kansas City.
17:20Gay-ha-field?
17:21Is that what they call that?
17:22G-E-H-A?
17:23Yeah, yeah, okay.
17:24The Chiefs are going to be favored by four and a half?
17:29Four and a half.
17:30Four and a half.
17:31Yeah, I'd take the Chargers.
17:32But even still, they're two games back.
17:33No, but I want those points.
17:35Yeah, I know.
17:35Okay.
17:35But then what does it go to if it's, it goes to division type, division record.
17:41Yep.
17:41Then conference.
17:42Which right now.
17:43I'm sorry.
17:43Yeah.
17:44Then conference.
17:44Then common opponent or something like that.
17:45Yeah.
17:46So, head-to-head would be a wash.
17:47Yep.
17:48Then the division record.
17:49The Chiefs are currently one and two and the Chargers are four and oh.
17:52Yeah.
17:52So, they basically are three games back, but they're really like four games back.
17:55So, it almost has to be a win-out, lose-out scenario.
17:58Yeah.
17:59Pretty much.
17:59Which I don't think is going to happen.
18:00But again, if the standings are going to change, I don't believe in the Colts.
18:04So, I guess that team would be, maybe we've got to give more respect to the Ravens, I guess.
18:08No.
18:08But they don't look right either.
18:10I don't.
18:11The playoff standings might be kind of set outside of the North winner.
18:14No, the top seven's pretty set.
18:15Yeah, well, again, the Ravens could definitely win the division, but to get a wild card spot, I'm not sure they're going to do that.
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