AI Is Still a Boom, Deutsche Bank's Nolting Says

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00:00Let's talk about 2026. Yes, continued volatility. Is there a sea change in where the leadership

00:05comes from, akin to what we heard from Ed Yardeni, where suddenly big tech doesn't cut it for

00:10leadership? Everyone is a tech company. Well, I would say we still count on tech and that tech

00:17delivers earnings. We do, though, expect that earnings growth is coming down a little bit,

00:21which I think is really healthy. But of course, earnings will be very important. And those

00:25companies won't deliver earnings in 2026 will certainly get, say, punished. And that could

00:32cause volatility in the market. It's, by the way, one of the reasons why we are saying probably for

00:372026, let's not be complacent and just expect the same really positive performance we've seen so

00:43far this year and likely to get into the end, I hope. So from that perspective, that's something

00:48to watch. But I still think that KAI is not a bubble. I think it's still a boom and a structural

00:54change. And that's why we are constructive for next year as well.

00:57Do you think that the United States is still the epicenter of that constructive change?

01:01That was also a big part of Ed Yardeni's call, is that the U.S. has benefited disproportionately

01:05to this point. And that is poised to change.

01:09Well, I still look very easily at productivity, and that's the highest in the U.S. And honestly,

01:15I don't think that's massively changing next year. Look at Europe, for example. Productivity is far

01:21behind the U.S. Hopefully that's getting better with fiscal policy here. But to be seen, but I

01:26think to catch up on the U.S. productivity is very, very tricky, at least in the short term. So

01:32longer term maybe, but it's a long way to go. And from that perspective, I think we have seen this

01:38year the five. But then with the investments coming in, I would say that's continuing.